Why Should We Care About the Indo-Pacific?

Ray and Jim talk to author and geopolitical analyst James Crabtree about India’s policy of strategic ambiguity, its evolving but complicated relationship to the other “Quad” countries (the U.S., Australia and Japan), and its enigmatic relations with Russia and China.

They also review India's ongoing military modernization efforts, as well as the challenges of doing business in India with its complex web of protectionism, regulations and infrastructure issues.

Crabtree unpacks the rhetoric of India’s “Act East” policy of prioritizing Southeast Asia, as opposed to its evident interest in developing relations with wealthier Western economies. He also explains the implications of its inclusion in the “BRICS” grouping with Brazil, Russia, China and South Africa, together with a growing number of emerging Global South partners.

Ray and Jim welcome retired Lieutenant General Chun In-bum of the South Korean Army to discuss North Korea's increasing role in supplying arms to the Russian war machine. General Chun highlights the long history of North Korea’s illicit arms industry, and how its ambitions pose not just regional but global challenges.

General Chun emphasizes the need for a nuanced understanding of North Korea's changing military ambitions in the context of its ever-shifting relationships with China and Russia. He emphasizes that U.S. policy toward North Korea has often been flawed by misguided hopes that the Hermit Kingdom might respond positively to offers of engagement or inducements.

The discussion turns to the challenge that North Korea’s nuclear program poses to a strained global non-proliferation regime, and the real potential for South Korea and other countries under threat to break out and pursue their own nuclear capabilities if their faith in U.S. extended deterrence fails.

General Chun contemplates the question of an “Asian NATO”, appreciates the long history of American service in South Korea, and makes an impassioned plea to Americans to hold to their country’s historic ideals.

In our “There I was...” segment, Ray tells an amazing-but-true story of how his Air Force unit once encountered the toughness of South Korean Special Forces.

Former Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull joins Jim and Ray to give his pointed views on what he believes would be a high-risk second Donald Trump Administration on the Indo-Pacific against the relative continuity represented by Vice President Kamala Harris. Citing Trump's narcissism and erratic behavior, Turnbull asserts that the former president's return would unsettle U.S. alliance relationships across the region.

Turning to how foreign leaders can prepare for a possible "Trump 2", Turnbull emphasizes the need to forge a direct relationship with him, as traditional methods of working through senior officials and advisors have limited influence on his decisions. He shares his own experience of dealing with Trump while he was prime minister, such as persuading him not to impose steel tariffs on Australia.

Turnbull also details his objections to the Australia-UK-US (AUKUS) submarine deal. He criticizes the decision to abandon Australia's partnership with France to build diesel-electric submarines and instead opt for nuclear-powered submarines with America and Great Britain. Turnbull argues that this decision undermines Australian sovereignty and poses unacceptable risks due to the potential that limited supplies of U.S. submarines may well result in their being unavailable to meet Australia's needs.

He also discusses how Australia has dealt with China's influence and espionage operations, and specifically why his government was among the world's first to refuse to allow Huawei to build 5G networks in the country.

Jim and Ray discuss the remarkable Southeast Asian nation of Singapore with Nydia Ngiow, Managing Director of BowerGroupAsia's Singapore office. They explore why how this small city-state emerged to play a leading role in Indo-Pacific business and geopolitical affairs--even hosting major international events like the Asia Tech Summit and the Shangri-La Dialogue. Nydia talks about how Singapore came to be, and how it navigates its complex relationships with the US and China and practices a "consistent, principled and pragmatic" foreign policy. They also touch on Singapore's external security threats, its internal politics and its approach to balancing political stability against civil liberties. Finally, she explains how Beijing's crackdown in Hong Kong and political changes in the U.S. have impacted Singapore.

In this week's edition of "There I was ...", Jim tells Ray his experience with a Singapore COVID quarantine.

Jim & Ray talk to former U.S. Consul General to Hong Kong Hanscom Smith about the recent erosion of its autonomy and why he still believes in maintaining support for its people. Hanscom argues that despite its recent challenges, Hong Kong remains economically distinct from mainland China, though he acknowledges that the erosion of political autonomy has serious implications for Hong Kong's future. He asserts that international businesses still see value in maintaining a presence in Hong Kong, though the 2019 national security law has created uncertainty. He reflects back on his time there, which encompassed both the 2019 protests and the COVID-19 outbreak.

Finally, in a special update Jim asks Hanscom to respond to recent US State Department warnings to businesses in Hong Kong and the passage through the US House of Representatives of the Hong Kong Economic and Trade Office Certification Act.