War on the Rocks

People all over the world are watching Russia's assault on Ukraine unfold in real time through social media, giving us a gritty and vivid view of 21st-century combat. But how complete of a picture does this give us? How is the war actually unfolding? Why has Russia seemingly stumbled in the first few days of its invasion? Does this mean Ukraine can hold out? Michael Kofman of CNA sat down with Ryan to give some preliminary answers to these questions.

Keep in mind this was recorded on the evening of Sunday, Feb. 27, and events are changing quickly. Some of what Kofman predicted in terms of more Russian forces entering the fight already seemed to already be underway as we completed post-production for this episode.

With Moscow’s announcement that the core aim of its invasion of Ukraine is now just to secure the Donbass, the conflict has entered a new phase. Michael Kofman of CNA joins Ryan once again, for the fifth week in a row, to help us parse through events on the battlefield. They discuss the resilience of Ukrainian society, stalled fronts, the air war, tactical adaptations, the effects of Western armaments, drones, the maritime picture, where Russian munitions are falling short, why Michael doesn't think Russia will use chemical weapons, why the Battle of Kyiv is not likely to happen, the emergence of the suburban guerrilla, and the ability of Ukrainian forces to continue to turn back Russian offenses and possibly even go on the offensive themselves.

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President Joe Biden recently made headlines when he described India as being “somewhat shaky” on the issue of punishing Russia for its invasion of Ukraine. Tanvi Madan of the Brookings Institution sat down with Ryan to explain why India is taking a quieter and less aggressive tact as it navigates this international crisis. The answers to the question in the title are far more interesting and complicated than you might think. Join Ryan and Tanvi for this wide-ranging conversation, which touches not only on India’s relations with Russia, but how this all fits in with its relations with China and Ukraine.

How do Russia and China view cyber operations? How is the American view of cyber operations changing and is it changing fast enough? What do advances in scholarship have to tell us about how and why cyber operations matter? What cocktails do we miss the most? This conversation with Erica Borghard, Ben Buchanan, and Fiona Cunningham has something for everyone.

As listeners of this podcast know, the Marine Corps is taking a new direction. The latest document to lay out this vision is Force Design 2030. The commandant, Gen. David H. Berger, aims to cut the size of the Marine Corps and let go of some legacy systems (most notably tanks) in order to -- in the words of a recent article in the Economist --- turn the Corps into "a commando-like infantry force with nimbler weapons: drone squadrons will double in number and rocket batteries will triple." In Berger's view, the Marine Corps must make these changes in order to work with the other armed services to deter the People's Republic of China, if necessary, or win a war against it.

Ryan spoke with Berger to get the inside story of these reforms, which he describes as being in their earliest phase. "This is not the end of the journey" he said, "but rather the beginning." And he calls upon more voices to chime in with criticism to ensure the Marine Corps is ready for the future of war.

Further reading and listening:

• Force Design 2030
• David H. Berger, "Notes on Designing the Marine Corps of the Future," War on the Rocks
• "Send the Marines" The Economist
• David Barno and Nora Bensahel, "A Striking New Vision for the Marines, and a Wakeup Call for the Other Services," War on the Rocks
• Chris Brose and Ryan Evans, "Your Ideas Matter: The Making of Marine Strategic Planning and the Future of War," War on the Rocks podcast
• Chris Brose, Rep. Mike Gallagher, and Ryan Evans, "The Fleet, the Fight, and the Future," War on the Rocks podcast
• Edward D. Hess and Katherine Ludwig, Humility Is the New Smart: Rethinking Human Excellence in the Smart Machine Age(Berrett-Koehler Publishers)
• Ryan Holiday, Ego is the Enemy(Portfolio)