Walker Crips' Market Commentary

Last week's UK economic data painted a mixed picture ahead of the Bank of England's (“BoE”) November policy meeting. Inflation has dropped below the 2% target for the first time since 2021, reaching 1.7%, driven by lower energy costs and eased supply chain pressures. Meanwhile, a notable minimum wage hike has underpinned pay growth for low-wage workers, despite broader wage growth moderation. As the labour market is easing, economists increasingly expect a BoE interest rate cut, with markets pricing in a 90% chance of two 0.25% reductions by year-end. Retail sales defied expectations, rising 0.3% in September, driven by strong demand in electronics. While the BoE previously signalled potential rate cuts contingent on inflation trends, the cooling data has solidified expectations of a dovish policy shift in the coming weeks.

The upcoming 30th October UK budget is shaping up to be a pivotal moment, as Rachel Reeves navigates a challenging fiscal landscape with a £22 billion fiscal deficit. To address this deficit, proposals include raising employer national insurance contributions and increasing capital gains taxes on share sales, which could generate significant revenue. However, the proposals have faced pushback from business leaders and investors, with concerns over potential job losses and investment impacts being raised. The recent inflation decline below 2% has reinforced expectations for BoE rate cuts, potentially easing pressure on fiscal policy but also reducing tax revenue from inflation-related income. Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund warned the UK of potential market backlash if debt stabilisation efforts fell short, adding urgency to Reeves’ fiscal plans...

Stocks featured:

Future, St. James's Place and XPS Pensions Group

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

This podcast is intended to be Walker Crips Investment Management’s own commentary on markets. It is not investment research and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy, sell or trade in any of the investments, sectors or asset classes mentioned. The value of any investment and the income arising from it is not guaranteed and can fall as well as rise, so that you may not get back the amount you originally invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Movements in exchange rates can have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of any non-sterling denominated investment. Nothing in this podcast constitutes advice to undertake a transaction, and if you require professional advice you should contact your financial adviser or your usual contact at Walker Crips. Walker Crips Investment Management Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FRN: 226344) and is a member of the London Stock Exchange.

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Lloyds' Business Barometer indicated a dip in UK business confidence in September, the lowest level in three months. The data suggests businesses are cautious about the broader economic outlook but still expect strong trading, highlighting concerns over inflation, investment, and potential fiscal policy changes ahead of the upcoming budget. Bank of England ("BoE") Chief Economist, Huw Pill, struck a cautious tone on the rate outlook, warning against cutting interest rates too quickly or too far. He stressed the need for a gradual withdrawal of monetary policy restriction, citing concerns over wage data and services price inflation. In contrast, Governor Andrew Bailey suggested that the BoE could cut rates more aggressively if inflation data continues to improve, leading economists to predict rate cuts at every meeting until May 2025....

Stocks featured:

BAE Systems, BP and JD Sports Fashion

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

This podcast is intended to be Walker Crips Investment Management’s own commentary on markets. It is not investment research and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy, sell or trade in any of the investments, sectors or asset classes mentioned. The value of any investment and the income arising from it is not guaranteed and can fall as well as rise, so that you may not get back the amount you originally invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Movements in exchange rates can have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of any non-sterling denominated investment. Nothing in this podcast constitutes advice to undertake a transaction, and if you require professional advice you should contact your financial adviser or your usual contact at Walker Crips. Walker Crips Investment Management Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FRN: 226344) and is a member of the London Stock Exchange.

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Last week, UK economic data pointed to continued challenges and mixed signals. Third quarter gross domestic product (“GDP”) growth was disappointing, expanding by only 0.1% versus 0.2% expected, with September’s monthly GDP contracting at 0.1% as production weakened. The Bank of England’s (“BoE”) Chief Economist Huw Pill warned that global shocks could derail the UK’s disinflation process. Inflation remained sticky, particularly in services, and wage growth remained robust, complicating inflation targets. Grocery inflation edged higher, reflecting pressure on household finances, while public sector pay rises are now expected to outpace private sector pay. Furthermore, business confidence hit a 12-month low, driven by concerns over manufacturing and services outlooks, highlighting the significant economic headwinds the UK is facing.

Stocks featured:

Burberry Group, John Wood Group and Keller Group

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

This podcast is intended to be Walker Crips Investment Management’s own commentary on markets. It is not investment research and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy, sell or trade in any of the investments, sectors or asset classes mentioned. The value of any investment and the income arising from it is not guaranteed and can fall as well as rise, so that you may not get back the amount you originally invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Movements in exchange rates can have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of any non-sterling denominated investment. Nothing in this podcast constitutes advice to undertake a transaction, and if you require professional advice you should contact your financial adviser or your usual contact at Walker Crips. Walker Crips Investment Management Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FRN: 226344) and is a member of the London Stock Exchange.

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The construction and infrastructure services company Morgan Sindall Group saw a share price rise of 14.91% last week following a strong trading update. The update highlighted better-than-anticipated performance, prompting analysts to increase earnings per share (“EPS”) forecasts for 2024 and 2025 by 7%. The company’s Fit Out division showed robust growth, with an order book worth £1.3 billion, up 15% from the end of 2023. Additionally, the Partnership Housing division is expected to deliver slightly higher profits. Analysts noted Morgan Sindall’s strong management track record and lower one-off costs compared to peers, emphasising the company’s good value proposition.

Bloomsbury Publishing, publisher of books and reference databases, saw its shares jump 12.54% last week after the company reported stronger-than-expected trading performance for fiscal 2025. The publisher, known for the Harry Potter series, announced that profit attributable to owners rose to £16.6 million in the first half of fiscal 2025, up from £11.2 million a year earlier, with revenue increasing to £179.8 million from £136.7 million. EPS improved significantly, and the board proposed an increased interim dividend. Bloomsbury expects full-year results to exceed the market consensus of £319.3 million in revenue and £37.5 million in profit, boosting investor confidence...

Stocks featured:

Morgan Sindall Group, Bloomsbury Publishing and Close Brothers Group

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

This podcast is intended to be Walker Crips Investment Management’s own commentary on markets. It is not investment research and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy, sell or trade in any of the investments, sectors or asset classes mentioned. The value of any investment and the income arising from it is not guaranteed and can fall as well as rise, so that you may not get back the amount you originally invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Movements in exchange rates can have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of any non-sterling denominated investment. Nothing in this podcast constitutes advice to undertake a transaction, and if you require professional advice you should contact your financial adviser or your usual contact at Walker Crips. Walker Crips Investment Management Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FRN: 226344) and is a member of the London Stock Exchange.

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The UK economy is grappling with challenges as business confidence falters and retail sales dip. The Lloyds Bank business barometer fell to a five-month low of 41%, highlighting economic uncertainty, though firms remain optimistic about their trading prospects. Surveys from the Confederation of British Industry and the Institute of Directors indicate shrinking private sector activity and the lowest business confidence since April 2020. Elevated borrowing costs and higher employment taxes are straining businesses, dampening hiring and investment. Despite these difficulties, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (“OECD”) forecasts stronger growth by 2025, driven by public spending, though inflation is expected to stay above target.

Stocks featured:

Frasers Group, International Consolidated Airlines Group and Legal & General Group

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

This podcast is intended to be Walker Crips Investment Management’s own commentary on markets. It is not investment research and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy, sell or trade in any of the investments, sectors or asset classes mentioned. The value of any investment and the income arising from it is not guaranteed and can fall as well as rise, so that you may not get back the amount you originally invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Movements in exchange rates can have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of any non-sterling denominated investment. Nothing in this podcast constitutes advice to undertake a transaction, and if you require professional advice you should contact your financial adviser or your usual contact at Walker Crips. Walker Crips Investment Management Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FRN: 226344) and is a member of the London Stock Exchange.

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.