Trigger Strategy

While sipping homegrown bay leaf tea, we explore how road signs, surprises, and deliberate confusion can unlock better thinking.

From missing signs under railway bridges to the tangled journey of Google Glass, we trace how aporia — the ancient art of being productively confused — can help you build faster, align better, and see the hidden struggles that are gonna derail your projects.

• Why some signs should disappear to make things flow better
• How "productive confusion" can trigger better decision making
• What Google Glass, magic roundabouts, and fast food kitchens have in common
• How to rapid prototype a billion-dollar product... with clay and wire
• The curse of "pseudolignment" and how to catch it before it wrecks your team
• The Align-o-matic: an emerging tool to help you spot hidden assumptions early

Linky goodness:

• Magic Roundabout (Swindon, UK): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magic_Roundabout_(Swindon)
• "A symphony of efficiency, not a waste of motion" from The Founder: https://youtu.be/F-7cjdtrQ9Y?si=3eyzPlVq71Ws-R8o
• Tom Chi rapid prototyping: https://youtu.be/d5_h1VuwD6g?si=h29WjP8xvX3vxPak
• Rory Sutherland on defensive decision-making: https://fs.blog/defensive-decision-making/
• Zeigarnik Effect: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zeigarnik_effect
• We may have confused Zeigarnik with Ovsiankina: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ovsiankina_effect

Innovation Tactics cards we mentioned:

• Language Market Fit: front | back
• Solve for Distribution: front | back
• Hard Test Easy Life: front | back
• Time Machine: front | back

Get your copy of Innovation Tactics: https://pipdecks.com/products/innovation-tactics

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In the last episode, we introduced Rob Snyder's framing of finding your repeatable case study instead of building your tech product.

This time, we step back into the Pain Cave to talk through some of the criticisms that Rob (and we) often face when we suggest the approach we do.

We think they're misunderstandings of what we're advocating, but they're also sound points.

First, we consider the scolding that we should follow a proper research and design process and build the right thing at high quality from day one, not throw spaghetti at the wall. Sometimes this is true, but sometimes it's just not possible.

Second, we face the fear of selling "vapourware" – nobody wants to follow in Elizabeth Holmes' footsteps, promising stuff that can't be realised (Theranos). Absolutely right! But that's not at all what we're recommending.

And all this brings us to the concept of Bounded Applicability. No ideas are suitable for all projects, products, etc. So how can you think about what's appropriate in a given situation?

Linky goodness:

• Bounded Applicability: https://shows.acast.com/triggerstrategy/episodes/663109cbcff31b0012ae9306
• My diagram showing some methods' Bounded Applicability: https://www.notion.so/Pitch-Provocations-54ad05d5740e451db0fa82479debeb91
• Previous episode about Rob Snyder: https://shows.acast.com/triggerstrategy/episodes/077-do-you-have-to-spend-years-in-the-pain-cave

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A lot of tech companies have bought into the idea of Build > Measure > Learn.

But the "Build" bit always takes longer than anyone's anticipating, so the "Measure" and the "Learn" get squeezed out.

Even though many of the people working in that system aren't happy that they're building crap and would love to be measuring and learning.

In this episode, we talk about using Multiverse Mapping to help you prioritise your work so you benefit from uncertainty instead of being blown up by it.

With real world examples, references to angry Lebanese people, a detour through performance management and another celebrity monster,

We get back to Antifragile Prioritisation at 23:10.

At the beginning of any project, we know the least we'll ever know about this project. So we should assume that we're going to learn important things as we do the project. But you can't just wait until you know the answers, because you'll only learn them through doing the project.

Expirere: you need either experience or experimentation.

In brief: create a model for how you're going to succeed, break that down into a level of granularity where you can identify critical behaviours, identify where you're facing the most uncertainty, then probe there first. Sounds trickier than it is – if you use Multiverse Mapping it's quite simple.

Uncertainty is not the same as risk – uncertainty is generative, so you'll often get new, exciting ideas by running into the uncertainty. AND you'll also reduce your risk.

And then we kinda debate around how much of the process of Multiverse Mapping can be explicit vs implicit. You do need to create a record for accountability, but don't make the mistake of trying to write down everything. Like all processes that support emergence: it's not that everything will just happen by itself, it's that you make something explicit and you get a happy side effect of updating lots of your tacit (shared) understanding.

And we talk about using your Multiverse Map to set Pivot Triggers, which enable you to talk more strategically with stakeholders.

And so you won't be doing Build > Measure > Learn – you'll be doing all three at the same time.

Finally, we talk about using Multiverse Maps at a higher level of granularity to help you decide between different strategies.

Linky Goodness

• Master Mutliverse Mapping: https://triggerstrategy.com/multiverse-mapping
• Satirical Skin in the Game review: https://www.theguardian.com/books/2018/feb/25/skin-in-the-game-by-nassim-nicholas-taleb-digested-read
• One of Luca Dellanna's introductions to antifragility: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MS1CqSfxF4o
• Estimating Complexity by Liz Keogh: https://lizkeogh.com/2013/07/21/estimating-complexity/
• Vaughn Tan's Generative Uncertainty: https://vaughntan.org/generative-uncertainty

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In which we coin the word "bungus" ...

If you've ever complained about misalignment, or rallied people with the cry that "we need to get aligned", then this one's for you. Of course the feeling of alignment is a pleasant one, but what if you're in one of the situations where seeking alignment is actually hurting you?

Corissa and Tom unpack the concept of alignment, including some discussion about different kinds of alignment and misalignment, some stories from the real world about situations where strategic misalignment can be good, and some references to our episode about the bees (episode 44: https://shows.acast.com/triggerstrategy/episodes/044-the-one-with-the-bees)

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You were hired to fix it. You did! Customers are happier. The company made millions. Your reward? They shut it all down.

We sit on a garden bench and talk about those times when you feel like you're being punished for doing your job well.

It turns out you can't mostly change a narrative with data. Your choices are power, influence, or acceptance.

We share real stories, reflect on past mistakes, and explore safer (?) ways to inspire change when truth-telling gets you sidelined. Along the way: multiverse mapping, toddler psychology, and why the best performing landing pages often don't stay live.

Books & Articles:

• Stealing the Corner Office by Brendan Reid
• Power: Why Some People Have It—and Others Don’t by Jeffrey Pfeffer
• Why Design is Hard by Scott Berkun
• Why Your Org Doesn’t Want Optimization to Succeed by Andrew Anderson
• How to Win Friends and Influence People by Dale Carnegie
• Ramit Sethi’s framing: “If someone is succeeding doing something that looks stupid... what do they know that I don’t?”

Frameworks & Tools:

• “Show the thing to change the thing” – concept from John Willshire
• Wardley Mapping
• Multiverse Mapping (Trigger Strategy Substack)
• Play the hand you're dealt – "Don't start with what you want people to do. Start with what people want to do." – Dave Trott

Character References:

• Wormtongue and Gandalf (Lord of the Rings) – models of influence

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