22. Men's Epee after Vancouver

What a weekend of epee. Lets get the easy ones out of the way. France are qualified in pole position. Italy are qualified – they can’t be caught by the multiple European teams needed to beat them. Likewise USA are qualified as the best PanAm team. Interestingly Switzerland are not yet qualified – there are scenarios for the last World Cup in Buenos Aires which could knock them out if they do badly (e.g. 1. HUN, 2. KOR, 3. UKR).

Korea winning in Vancouver has really shaken this table up. Please remember that the “4th” column (the worst world cup result) is the most important number here. Because we only count 4/5 results, teams need to improve on their worst result to change their score. Korea’s worst result was only a last 32 in Heidenheim, so they have the opportunity to score a huge amount of points compared with the teams around them.

For example, Korea could move into the top 4 (replacing Ukraine) by finishing 16th! If Korea finish 8th, Ukraine would have to finish 4th to maintain their top 4 place. This has huge implications for both Hungary and Russia – and throws a lifeline to China, who had a tough day after losing to Korea by one hit in the last 16. Small margins...

Speaking of Russia and Hungary, Hungary have a 3 point lead but also 3 points extra in their 4th result, so it’s very even. Remember that Hungary would win any tiebreak due to their gold medal in Heidenheim. If Korea make the top 4 then I don’t think either will qualify without a big result.

Similarly, Japan is close to China, but China has a material advantage with their 4th result being a last 32 finish in Paris.

And then we need to talk about Egypt. They’re doing everything they need to do – making last 16’s and sometimes winning more matches. But they’re not safe. They can be overtaken by Spain/Estonia/Germany (and maybe Poland) – realistically all 3 of those teams need good results in Buenos Aires to knock Egypt out of the top 16 and open up an Extra Place.

In the individuals, a win by Bas Verwijlen (NED) moves him comfortably into the second European place. The possibility that neither Russia or Hungary (or Ukraine!) qualify in the teams is still a concern though.
Ruslan Kurbanov (KAZ) benefits from Korea moving into the qualification places – Park Sangyoung (KOR) doesn’t need an individual place.
Better days in Vancouver for the Japanese team, but Yamada Masaru (JPN) is a long way ahead.
Next is Budapest, then it’s all finished in Buenos Aires.

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