ToKCast

This is an advertisement more than a regular ToKCast episode/video. I will sometimes publish some rough and ready material (compared to what appears here on the actual podcast and so forth) on Substack. If you don't know what Substack is - it's just a place where people write stuff (normally). Usually it's journalists who do most of the stuff there. I am choosing a format where I can write and/or also do audio. Go here to see https://bretthall.substack.com/p/manners-and-marketing?r=3r9kb&s=w&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web and sign up. I won't publish everything that I produce there here as well. As I say the purpose of Substack, for me, will be to produce less polished material and perhaps stuff that is less "timeless" - so I can comment on cultural issues and perhaps topics of the day. I mention a few things in this episode and links to those things are: Science Historian criticises Neil Tyson: https://thonyc.wordpress.com/2022/04/13/nil-degrasse-tyson-knows-nothing-about-nothing/ Astronomical Disdain: https://www.bretthall.org/blog/astronomical-disdain

Penn Jillette on the funding of libraries: https://youtu.be/nGAO100hYcQ?t=280

"Slides" are referred to in this episode. Their absence will not hinder understanding for audio-only listeners - enjoy!

This is a "talk about a talk". Back in 2015 David Deutsch gave a lecture titled "Physics without Probability" which ranged over the history of probability, it's uses and misuses and essentially concluded there was no way in which probability featured in the real world - according to known physics. This is a shocking (for most) conclusion and something many will baulk at. The original talk can be found here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wfzSE... and I strongly commend it to all listeners/viewers. Over the years since I have found myself over and again referring to this talk and pointing others to it on the topics of quantum theory or Bayesianism or simply risk assessment.

I do not understand why that talk does not have 10 times the number of viewings. Or 100. It is ground breaking, useful, compelling stuff. It is neither too technical nor too subtle. So this is my attempt to re-sell that talk and provide a slightly different phrasing of what I think is a clear articulation of those important ideas.

People claim to think in terms of probabilities. Physicists speak in terms of probabilities. Philosophers and those who endorse Bayesianism speak in terms of probabilities. How can we do away with it? As an instrument probability might work well. But then so can assuming that your local land is flat even though we know that - strictly - the Earth is curved. Does this matter? If you care about reality and explaining it and hence genuine rationality then you should. Especially when it comes to risk assessment. Towards the end of the podcast I go beyond David's talk into my own musings about various topics - including the notion of risk which has been a request on ToKCast. As always errors herein are my own. If you enjoy this podcast, consider supporting me on Patreon or Paypal. The links for donating can be found on the landing page right here: https://www.bretthall.org

This episode explores the issue of the finiteness of our “natural resources”, taking an optimistic view of our place in the cosmos and hence where we can expect to find resources. We must first explain what a resource is. Is the notion of a "natural resource" an oxymoron? I explain some of that in a Twitter thread here: https://twitter.com/ToKTeacher/status/1473642761676988418?s=20:

I then go on to explain this position in this short podcast.

I expect to be making more podcasts of about this length or shorter in the coming months and years.

I know some would prefer with this style of podcast that I did not have music underneath the speech. It would be possible for me to release both a music and a non-music version. Let me know if this is something that would appeal to you. Either on Twitter @ToKCast or email me at: [email protected]

Music in order of appearance is:

Dark Sky - Ketsa

Solstice Sighing - Ketsa

Vibration - Ketsa

Boats - Ketsa

Gloomy - Ostin

We know - Ketsa

Dark Sky - Ketsa

Drawing on Chapter 15 "The Evolution of Culture" from "The Beginning of Infinity" by David Deutsch and then applying it to some special cases.

Come and chat to me about this or anything else at https://www.getairchat.com/brett

Timestamps:

00:00 Speech, Trade and Democracy

02:39 Is Democracy under attack?

07:05 Free Speech as Error Identification

09:14 Limits on Free Speech?

13:02 Case Study 1: North Korea

14:18 Case Study 2: Afghanistan and Iraq

17:30 Case Study 3: South Korea

19:43 Case Study 4: China

24:43 The Evolution of Culture by David Deutsch 1

29:43 Protecting liberty in Western Nations

30:30 Bringing Liberty to nations without it.

32:25 Case Study 5: Japan

35:01 Immigration: Why worry?

35:58 The Evolution of Culture by David Deutsch 2

39:01 Preserve the means of error correction at all costs

Support me at www.bretthall.org

This is the complete and unabridged discussion I had with David Deutsch largely about "The Beginning of Infinity". It contains all my "Questions for David" - which were published separately - AND much more content too.

00:00 Introduction

12:51 Why aren’t testable theories enough?

14:37 Predictions vs Explanations

18:33 Verisimilitude

23:54 Are people a “chemical scum”?

25:43 The Earth is uniquely suited to life?

30:22 What does “provable” mean?

33:44 Undecidability

37:45 Classifying abstractions

41:29 The nature of physical laws.

47:06 Direct Observation

50:29 The nature of mind

55:40 The Supernatural

59:52 Epistemology and Morality

01:02:00 The physical limitations of knowledge?

01:09:24 Some history of quantum computation

01:16:44 Tic Tacs, UFOs and aliens

01:19:01 Dark Energy

Support the podcast by following the links to Patreon or Paypal here: www.bretthall.org