The Week Ahead

This week, it's all about Ghana. The country is preparing for Sunday's elections and is set to go to the polls to elect a new president. The political landscape is heating up as candidates gear up for a highly competitive race.
Then, Ghana's Jubilee oil field production dropped to 89,000 barrels per day due to issues with the J69-P well and downtime at Ghana Gas Company. Ghana also owes $40 million in overdue gas payments. While cocoa buyers paid over $500 million upfront to Cocobod, the organization faces a $1 billion loss from unfulfilled contracts. How could the drop in oil production affect Ghana's economy?

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We begin in Southern Africa, where Botswana is undergoing a historic political shift. After 58 years of Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) rule, the country has elected opposition candidate Duma Boko of the Umbrella for Democratic Change (UDC) as its new president. What are the implications of his victory for Botswana's future? What are the broader political impact of the UDC's parliamentary win?
In Nigeria, 32 out of Nigeria's 36 states rely on federal allocations for over 55% of their revenue, with Lagos and Rivers being exceptions. We explore the impact of this dependence on state economies, how other states can increase internal revenue, and the challenges President Tinubu may face in passing the tax reforms bill amid opposition from the Northern States Governors Forum.
Finally, we discuss the 60% drop in foreign travel in Nigeria, with passenger numbers at key airports in Lagos and Abuja falling sharply due to the high cost of foreign currencies, especially the US dollar. This has made international travel increasingly expensive for Nigerians. We explore the potential impacts on Nigeria's aviation industry, how Nigerians might adapt, and what the government can do to address the currency challenges.

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We begin in Ghana, where Islamist militants from Burkina Faso are allegedly using northern Ghana for supplies and medical support, despite denials from Ghanaian authorities. Is Ghana at risk of becoming a safe haven for insurgents? How might this impact regional security?
In Nigeria, terrorists have reportedly overtaken the Nagwamase Military Cantonment in Niger State, displacing over 20 communities. How will this security breach affect local stability, and what does it say about Nigeria’s counterinsurgency efforts?
Finally, a Federal High Court has halted federal allocations to Rivers State over irregularities in its 2024 budget approval. Could this decision disrupt governance in Rivers? What does it mean for fiscal accountability?

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Nigeria's government has proposed a 5% excise duty on telecom services, gaming, and betting as part of a new tax reform bill. How will this new tax burden affect consumers and businesses, and what could it mean for Nigeria’s digital economy?
Next, the Dangote Refinery missed its petrol supply targets, delivering only 148 million litres instead of 575 million litres between mid-September and early October. How would this affect fuel availability and prices in the coming months?
Finally, Jumia is exiting South Africa and Tunisia to focus on more profitable markets like Egypt, Kenya, and Nigeria, citing economic challenges and strong competition in those regions. Will this strategic shift improve Jumia’s profitability, and what impact will it have on the e-commerce landscape in Africa?

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NNPC first announced that had stopped supplying crude to local refineries, including Dangote, then announced that it was renegotiating with Dangote. How will this affect fuel prices and Nigeria’s economy in the coming months?
The Manufacturers Association of Nigeria opposes a new law that significantly increases financial charges on businesses. What impact will this law have on Nigeria’s business environment?
Ghana’s President John Mahama is working to ease trade barriers with Mali and strengthen Burkina Faso ties. How will these efforts improve economic growth in West Africa?

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