The Road Ahead for China’s Economy after the Third Plenum

What will China’s economic policy look like over the next five years? Since the launch of Deng Xiaoping’s economic reforms in 1978, the Third Plenum (held every five years) has served as a platform for China’s leadership to convey its vision for the country’s economic future. Originally expected to convene in fall 2023, this Third Plenum was postponed until mid-July 2024. Although there was no public explanation for the delay, it is clear that China’s economy is at a crossroads. Since the last Third Plenum in 2018, the world has been through a pandemic; competitive tension with the U.S. has been on the rise; and China faces challenges that include an aging population, youth unemployment, and a troubled property sector. Foreign tariffs on Chinese goods have also increased, just as the CCP leadership navigates its role as a burgeoning global power in a time of international conflict and polarization.

Scott Kennedy, in conversation with Lizzi Lee, explores the implications of this Third Plenum for the future of China’s economy, economic policy, and international trade.