Trump’s Guilty. Does Anyone Care?

06/06/24 • 37 min

4 Listeners

In the days since a Manhattan jury found Donald Trump guilty of 34 felony counts, people have mostly been asking one big question.

Will this matter in November?

Over the past few days, our colleagues at The New York Times and at the Siena College Research Institute have been trying to answer that question. They spoke with 1,900 people they had previously polled to find out how they are currently thinking. Most people have not changed their mind. But some have — and they are moving away from Mr. Trump.

This week, Astead speaks with voters about how they are thinking about the presidential race after Mr. Trump’s conviction, including with people in one significant group: Trump supporters who said in October that if he were convicted and sentenced, they would back President Biden.

He also talks with Ruth Igielnik, who helps oversee polling at The Times, to understand the latest data and who is still on the fence in the race.

Do you have a question about the 2024 election? We want to hear from you. Fill out this form or email us a voice memo at [email protected]

In the days since a Manhattan jury found Donald Trump guilty of 34 felony counts, people have mostly been asking one big question.

Will this matter in November?

He also talks with Ruth Igielnik, who helps oversee polling at The Times, to understand the latest data and who is still on the fence in the race.

Do you have a question about the 2024 election? We want to hear from you. Fill out this form or email us a voice memo at [email protected]

Previous Episode

What Women Voters Really Want

While the political world waits for a verdict in Donald Trump’s criminal trial in Manhattan, we wanted to take a moment to remember how we got here — especially the broader political context of the fall of 2016.

Mr. Trump is charged with falsifying business records related to a hush-money payment to the adult film actress Stormy Daniels as part of a scheme to influence the outcome of the 2016 presidential election.

Back in 2016, Mr. Trump was down in the polls and worried about losing support from women voters, who would, the thinking went, punish him at the ballot box for the lewd “Access Hollywood” tape and anything Ms. Daniels might make public.

That of course is not what happened. And in the years since, assumptions about how women vote have come to feel more complicated.

To discuss this, we turn to two women who have spent many years thinking about what women want when it comes to politics and everything else.

Kellyanne Conway was Mr. Trump’s campaign manager in 2016 and senior counselor to him from 2017 to 2020. Celinda Lake was one of the lead pollsters for the Biden campaign in 2020.

In 2005, they wrote a book together called “What Women Really Want,” which argued that politicians needed to take seriously the particular desires of women, who make up more than 50 percent of the electorate.

So this week we ask: What’s changed since 2005? And do Ms. Conway and Ms. Lake still agree on what women really want?

Next Episode

Maybe It All Comes Down to Abortion

Arizona is a battleground state that both parties are desperate to win in November.

And right now, supporters of abortion rights in the state are in the midst of gathering signatures to ensure that, along with the presidential race and a competitive Senate contest, enshrining the right to abortion in the state’s Constitution will be on the ballot this fall.

The measure has broad support in the state, and Democrats are banking on that to drive a wide range of people to the polls to vote on the ballot measure — and, they hope, for Mr. Biden. But there’s no guarantee that will happen.

For the next two weeks, we’re going to focus on how abortion rights could shape the 2024 election in Arizona.

This week: We’re with volunteers around the state — at a trailhead outside Phoenix and at Bunco night in Bullhead City — who are working to get the measure on the ballot, and we spoke with the people who were supporting their efforts.

Do you have a question about the 2024 election? We want to hear from you. Fill out this form or email us a voice memo at [email protected]