A Pollster’s Guide to the Homestretch

10/10/24 • 42 min

4 Listeners

We are less than a month from Election Day.

That means our polling colleagues are busy. And that they are well positioned to help answer some of the biggest questions we have at this stage in the race.

Like: Who has the advantage between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump?

What’s the most important battleground state?

And what are the chances we actually know the final result on election night?

On today’s show, we do our best to get answers — and to get ready for these next few weeks.

Featured on today’s episode:

Nate Cohn, the chief political analyst for The New York Times.

Unlock full access to New York Times podcasts and explore everything from politics to pop culture. Subscribe today at nytimes.com/podcasts or on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.

We are less than a month from Election Day.

That means our polling colleagues are busy. And that they are well positioned to help answer some of the biggest questions we have at this stage in the race.

Like: Who has the advantage between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump?

What’s the most important battleground state?

And what are the chances we actually know the final result on election night?

On today’s show, we do our best to get answers — and to get ready for these next few weeks.

Featured on today’s episode:

Nate Cohn, the chief political analyst for The New York Times.

Unlock full access to New York Times podcasts and explore everything from politics to pop culture. Subscribe today at nytimes.com/podcasts or on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.

Previous Episode

The Fight for Rural America

Tim Walz, a former high school football coach from a tiny town, has folksy sayings and a camo cap. JD Vance shot to fame with “Hillbilly Elegy,” aiming to speak for parts of rural America that felt left behind.

Both parties — especially with their vice-presidential candidates — are trying to convey to rural Americans that they are not forgotten.

This comes after Democrats have seen significant erosion of support in rural areas.

How have Republicans grown their rural advantage to historic levels? Can Democrats do enough to remain competitive in 2024 — especially in places like Mr. Walz’s former congressional district?

In the wake of the vice-presidential debate, The Run-Up looks at how both parties are trying to reach rural voters — with their vice-presidential candidates and their messages.

Unlock full access to New York Times podcasts and explore everything from politics to pop culture. Subscribe today at nytimes.com/podcasts or on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.

Next Episode

The Trump Plan to Flip Georgia Back

On Tuesday night, with three weeks to go until Election Day, Donald Trump was in Georgia.

In 2020, he lost the state by around 12,000 votes, and Georgia became central to his claims that the election had been stolen. After his defeat, he went after Republican state officials and voting machines.

At his rally on Tuesday, he was doing something different. He was encouraging people to vote early, to participate in a system his party had previously questioned.

The plan was to make the results “too big to rig” — just one part of the Republican strategy to make sure last time doesn’t repeat itself.

On today’s show, we take a closer look at the Trump ground game in Georgia and explore why Georgia Republicans are confident that 2024 won’t be like 2020.

Unlock full access to New York Times podcasts and explore everything from politics to pop culture. Subscribe today at nytimes.com/podcasts or on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.