The NZ Property Market Podcast

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The latest 6-monthly CoreLogic first home buyers report clearly illustrated the recent struggles for first home buyers as credit availability and affordability pressures impacted their activity. Of course the report goes into greater detail, as do Nick and Kelvin in their resulting discussion.

REINZ figures for April are also a hot topic, particularly due to the stark index result that Wellington City is now -14.2% down from its October peak.

Kelvin also provides his take on the latest Westpac Economics team release on construction and the housing shortage, while net migration figures for April provide an opening to a broader economic discussion and April rental data has Nick reiterating comments made about landlord pressures for a oneroof article.

This week, keep a look out for RBNZ's latest debt-to-income reporting and insights from their new survey, while Kelvin's written a 'did you know?' post, busting a few myths that are currently circulating and as he says in his regular '5 things to know' the 2022 Government Budget is likely to be relatively uneventful for housing.

Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on [email protected] or [email protected]

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With REINZ data for February confirming the market slowdown, many questions are turning to the risk of a greater downturn and what's next for the market. Regional variances, in sales volumes and price movement, are important market indicators to pay attention to.

Momentum is also waning in the broader economy - Kelvin gives his take on the latest GDP and more timely NZAC data.

There was also some interesting analysis put out by the Reserve Bank of Australia regarding the risk of first home buyers and other owner occupiers which has plenty of relevance here in NZ and leads a broader discussion on the risk of a more serious down-turn occurring here.

The latest video is now live, Kelvin's regular 5 things you need to know is up on oneroof, as is his larger analytic piece on the lending environment, and AM Early have uploaded his full interview from Monday morning too.

And the interactive mapping the market site is updated with the change in values by suburb over the last 3 months - available to you before the media have even covered it!

Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on [email protected] or [email protected]

Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, Twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email [email protected] or [email protected]

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The guys kick off this week’s discussion with a look at our house price index for January, which showed a smaller rise in values (0.4%) than in both November and December. With mortgage rates still pretty high, a mixture of weaker and stronger months for property values shouldn’t be a surprise. So then it’s just a choice of which adjective/synonym to use to describe patchiness!

Two other notable items last week were Andrew Bayly’s announcement that the Government will be looking to loosen the CCCFA rules again over the next few months – adding to some impetus for the property market – but also Paul Conway’s (RBNZ Chief Economist) speech which poured cold water on the idea that the official cash rate might be cut soon.
Elsewhere, mortgage lending activity continues to rise from a low base, consumer and business confidence are generally trending higher (but not consistently), while dwelling consents are still falling – and HUD was in the news for suggesting that the annual total, currently 37,000, could dip to around 32,000.

Coming up this week – big labour market news (unemployment rate likely to be higher but due to more workers not job losses), mortgage lending by the term of the loan chosen, and CoreLogic’s Buyer Classification figures for January.

All in all, plenty to discuss – oh, and the cricket at Bay Oval too.

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A number of releases/announcements from the RBNZ once again dominate the discussion. We've got the reappointment of Governor Orr to discuss, along with their first 5-year review of monetary policy, the proposed framework for the introduction of Dti limits (not until 2024) and a paper analysing the effects of the FLP on funding costs and mortgage rates.

Outside of RBNZ chat, Kelvin details the key insights from the release of our 6-monthly First Home Buyer Report, particularly that first home buyers are navigating the current market better than anyone else.

Stats NZ also released their Rental Index for October and Auckland City Council's code of compliance certificates illustrates the building slowdown which hasn't been as evident from consenting figures. Plus, the guys chat about Williams Corporations announcement that they've offered voluntary redundancies to a number of their staff across the globe.

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In this special episode Richard Deakin chats with Dr Georgia McGregor, CoreLogic's in-house construction data expert. Georgia has a fascinating background, having completed an Honours thesis on extraterrestrial architecture, followed by a PhD focussed on architecture in video games. She talks us through her studies, and their relevance to her current role as construction data expert within CoreLogic's Cordell costings team.
Georgia then touches on what it's like being a women in the building industry, her view on the sector's outlook, as well as similarities and differences between the New Zealand and Australian construction markets.
As part of the team responsible for maintaining and updating our market-leading costings database, which powers a number of solutions including Cordell Sum Sure and Cordell Commercial Estimator, Georgia also provides insight into how this data is kept up-to-date, as well talking about some of the trickier costings problems they have recently had to solve, including working out how much a commercial building weighs!

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