The Numbers

Prime Minister Mark Carney named his new cabinet last week. Do his choices suggest some electoral considerations came into play on who did and didn’t made the cut — and does a cabinet minister make a difference at the ballot box? Plus, Pierre Poilievre’s byelection in Battle River–Crowfoot looms, as does the prickly subject of Alberta separation.

This week on The Numbers, we discuss some of these new developments in federal politics. We also delve into new polling numbers in Ontario and Alberta, as well as in Quebec where the Parti Québécois is holding a wide lead. Could Pablo Rodriguez, if he wins the Quebec Liberal leadership, shake things up? And how could a referendum on Alberta independence impact that debate in Quebec?

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This week on The Numbers, we discuss the impact of Justin Trudeau’s resignation as prime minister and Liberal leader, as well as the early moves in the contest to replace him. What do the polls say about the chances his successor will have against Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives?

And who will that successor be? We hold an auction to choose our picks for the most likely winners of the Liberal leadership race.

Want even more of The Numbers? Members of our Patreon get extra mailbag episodes every week and special episodes monthly, as well as access to our Discord. You can get these exclusives and support our joint project by becoming a member of our Patreon here.

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It was a remarkable end to an unprecedented few months in Canadian politics. Mark Carney’s Liberals came up just short of a majority with 169 seats, while the Conservatives won 144 seats but did not see their leader, Pierre Poilievre, win his. The New Democrats put up their worst performance in all of their history and saw leader Jagmeet Singh go down to defeat as well. But with seven seats, the NDP still holds the balance of power — as does Yves-François Blanchet and the Bloc Québécois.

So, there are lots of numbers to go into on this episode of The Numbers. How did the polls perform? How did our projections do? And what results surprised us the most?

Thanks for all of your support during this campaign! We’re going to go back to a weekly schedule of episodes, with bonus episodes for members of our Patreon. Become a member to continue supporting this podcast and to get access to those episodes as well as to our lively Discord server. Join here!

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A new poll, employing a new methodology, has the Conservatives at their highest and the Liberals at their lowest levels of support in years — maybe even a decade. What to make of it?

On this week’s episode of The Numbers, we also break down Tim Houston’s PC landslide in the Nova Scotia election and take a look at some recent polls out of Newfoundland and Labrador and Prince Edward Island.

Want even more of The Numbers? Members of our Patreon get extra mailbag episodes every week and special episodes monthly, as well as access to our Discord. You can get these exclusives and support our joint project by becoming a member of our Patreon here.

As always, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

With referendums on separation a real possibility in the not-so-distant future, is there a chance that Alberta and/or Saskatchewan could vote to leave the country? We take a look at some of the latest polling numbers on the subject on this episode of The Numbers.

Plus, both the Conservatives and New Democrats have named some interim leaders (Andrew Scheer as head of the opposition until Pierre Poilievre gets into the House, and Don Davies as interim NDP leader until his replacement is named). What can we read into these choices? And does it matter that the judicial recount in Terrebonne has pushed the Liberals one seat closer to an outright majority?

Looking for even more of The Numbers? If you join our Patreon and support this joint project of ours, you’ll get ad-free episodes every week, bonus episodes several times per month and access to our lively Discord. Join here!

https://www.patreon.com/c/thenumberspod

You can also watch this episode on YouTube.

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.