The Nagorno-Karabakh truce: What to expect in the years that follow a bloody six-week war

A six-week war in Nagorno-Karabakh has ended disastrously for Armenia. Judging by the map, the situation on the ground will revert mostly to the conditions in place before Yerevan’s 1991 war with Baku, leaving Azerbaijani artillery perched just outside the breakaway republic’s capital city and the 50,000 souls who call it home. The big difference this time around is the presence of Russian peacekeepers — about 2,000 of them — who will be there to monitor a Kremlin-brokered truce. Not formally part of the trilateral settlement but still very much involved in the conflict is Turkey, which is expected to field its own monitors in Azerbaijan, albeit outside the Karabakh region.

For a better understanding of the violence that took place in this area since late September, and to explore what it means to have won or lost in this war, “The Naked Pravda” turned to three experts:

• (3:15) Neil Hauer, a Canadian journalist based in the Caucasus who's reported extensively on conflicts in Georgia, Syria, and Nagorno-Karabakh, describes the mood now in Armenia and Yerevan’s plans for Karabakh’s future.
• (8:31) Richard Giragosian, the director of the Regional Studies Center (an independent think tank based in Armenia), argues that everyone involved in the six-week war has emerged a loser, in at least some respects.
• (16:31) Rob Lee, a former Marine engineer officer and a current doctoral student at King’s College London, explains how drones made all the difference in the latest clashes between Armenian and Azerbaijani forces.

“The Naked Pravda” comes out on Saturdays (or sometimes Fridays). Catch every new episode by subscribing at Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts, or other platforms. If you have a question or comment about the show, please write to Kevin Rothrock at [email protected] with the subject line: “The Naked Pravda.”

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