MI271: The Long Term Debt Cycle & De-Dollarization “Fairytale” Explained w/ Alfonso Peccatiello
05/09/23 • 54 min
Rebecca Hotsko and Alfonso Peccatiello discuss the current market outlook, including the driving force behind the market rally, its sustainability, Alfonso’s prediction of a 0% rate cut by the Fed in 2024, and a whole lot more!
Alfonso Peccatiello is former Head of a $20 billion Investment Portfolio and now is the Founder and author of The Macro Compass, which is an investment strategy firm that provides financial education, macro insights and investment ideas.
IN THIS EPISODE, YOU’LL LEARN:
00:00 - Intro.
02:05 - His current market outlook, whether this recent market rally is sustainable or not.
10:43 - Why Alfonso expects the Fed to cut rates to 0% in 2024?
22:07 - How the long-term debt cycle works, what are the key factors that drive it over time?
29:27 - Why Alfonso believes we are in the very late stages of the long term debt cycle?
33:41 - What implications does this has economically, and for the financial markets?
34:02 - Will we see a period of deleveraging similar to 2008 and 1929 in the US?
41:11 - The difference between a period of deleveraging and a recession.
50:22 - His thoughts on the trend of de-dollarization, is a US dollar centric world over and are there any possible alternatives to this dollar central world?
54:49 - The Impacts that an economic downturn and de-leveraging would have on a US dollar based global system.
60:09 - Alfonso’s portfolio strategy and investment take-aways given his outlook.
*Disclaimer: Slight timestamp discrepancies may occur due to podcast platform differences.
BOOKS AND RESOURCES
- Join the exclusive TIP Mastermind Community to engage in meaningful stock investing discussions with Kyle and the other community members.
- Check out The MacroCompass.
- Check out: The MacroCompass Substack.
- Related Episode: Listen to MI232: Understanding Quantitative Easing w/ Alfonso Peccatiello , or watch the video.
NEW TO THE SHOW?
- Check out our Millennial Investing Starter Packs.
- Browse through all our episodes (complete with transcripts) here.
- Try Kyle’s favorite tool for picking stock winners and managing our portfolios: TIP Finance.
- Enjoy exclusive perks from our favorite Apps and Services.
- Stay up-to-date on financial markets and investing strategies through our daily newsletter, We Study Markets.
- Learn how to better start, manage, and grow your business with the best business podcasts.
SPONSORS
Support our free podcast by supporting our sponsors:
Connect with Rebecca: Twitter | Instagram
Email: [email protected]
Connect with Alfonso: Website | Twitter
Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm
Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm
Support our show by becoming a premium member!
Rebecca Hotsko and Alfonso Peccatiello discuss the current market outlook, including the driving force behind the market rally, its sustainability, Alfonso’s prediction of a 0% rate cut by the Fed in 2024, and a whole lot more!
Alfonso Peccatiello is former Head of a $20 billion Investment Portfolio and now is the Founder and author of The Macro Compass, which is an investment strategy firm that provides financial education, macro insights and investment ideas.
IN THIS EPISODE, YOU’LL LEARN:
00:00 - Intro.
02:05 - His current market outlook, whether this recent market rally is sustainable or not.
10:43 - Why Alfonso expects the Fed to cut rates to 0% in 2024?
22:07 - How the long-term debt cycle works, what are the key factors that drive it over time?
29:27 - Why Alfonso believes we are in the very late stages of the long term debt cycle?
33:41 - What implications does this has economically, and for the financial markets?
34:02 - Will we see a period of deleveraging similar to 2008 and 1929 in the US?
41:11 - The difference between a period of deleveraging and a recession.
50:22 - His thoughts on the trend of de-dollarization, is a US dollar centric world over and are there any possible alternatives to this dollar central world?
54:49 - The Impacts that an economic downturn and de-leveraging would have on a US dollar based global system.
60:09 - Alfonso’s portfolio strategy and investment take-aways given his outlook.
*Disclaimer: Slight timestamp discrepancies may occur due to podcast platform differences.
BOOKS AND RESOURCES
- Join the exclusive TIP Mastermind Community to engage in meaningful stock investing discussions with Kyle and the other community members.
- Check out The MacroCompass.
- Check out: The MacroCompass Substack.
- Related Episode: Listen to MI232: Understanding Quantitative Easing w/ Alfonso Peccatiello , or watch the video.
NEW TO THE SHOW?
- Check out our Millennial Investing Starter Packs.
- Browse through all our episodes (complete with transcripts) here.
- Try Kyle’s favorite tool for picking stock winners and managing our portfolios: TIP Finance.
- Enjoy exclusive perks from our favorite Apps and Services.
- Stay up-to-date on financial markets and investing strategies through our daily newsletter, We Study Markets.
- Learn how to better start, manage, and grow your business with the best business podcasts.
SPONSORS
Support our free podcast by supporting our sponsors:
Connect with Rebecca: Twitter | Instagram
Email: [email protected]
Connect with Alfonso: Website | Twitter
Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm
Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm
Support our show by becoming a premium member!
Previous Episode
REI182: Escaping His 9 to 5 w/ Raleigh Williams
Patrick Donley sits down with Raleigh Williams to chat about how he left a lucrative job as an M&A lawyer to launch an entertainment group focused on investing in escape rooms. They also discuss what it was like leaving a six-figure salary, how his family reacted, and what some of the obstacles were as he bought and developed the escape rooms.
IN THIS EPISODE, YOU’LL LEARN:
00:00 - Intro
02:10 - Why Stephen Pressfield’s book, The War of Art, is his most highly recommended book for entrepreneurs.
02:22 - How to determine the highest and best use of your time.
10:42 - How to use the “Star Principle” by Richard Koch to make investments.
26:23 - What it was like working as an M&A lawyer and how he left a lucrative career behind.
30:23 - How he got his start investing in Escape Rooms.
30:44 - Why you can expect to hit resistance when you start new ventures.
33:59 - How he used social media to build his brand.
33:59 - How he used social media to build his brand.
47:27 - What some of the hurdles were getting the Escape Rooms operational.
47:27 - How they found operators with the right qualities to help scale the business.
53:12 - Why it’s vital to have a spouse or partner on board when starting a new venture.
01:10:33 - What his parting wisdom is for people looking to take the next step away from their W2.
And much, much more!
*Disclaimer: Slight timestamp discrepancies may occur due to podcast platform differences.
BOOKS AND RESOURCES
- Join the exclusive TIP Mastermind Community to engage in meaningful stock investing discussions with Kyle and the other community members.
- The War of Art by Stephen Pressfield.
- Gates of Fire Stephen Pressfield.
- The Lean Startup by Eric Ries.
- Good to Great by Jim Collins.
- The Star Principle by Richard Koch.
- The Almanack of Naval Ravikant by Eric Jorgenson.
- Power of Now by Eckhart Tolle.
Next Episode
MI Rewind: Good Money Revolution w/ Derrick Kinney
Clay chats with Derrick Kinney about what led Derrick to selling his financial planning business to start Good Money Framework.
Derrick’s mission is to change the way people feel about money. He sold his multimillion dollar business to start teaching others what has helped him become successful building his own financial planning company as CEO of Good Money Framework and hosted the popular or Good Money Podcast.
IN THIS EPISODE, YOU’LL LEARN:
00:00 - Intro
01:53 - What led Derrick to selling his financial planning business to start Good Money Framework.
04:55 - The tool that Derrick found that businesses can use to drastically differentiate themselves from their competitors.
24:41 - The 3 good money levers outlined in Derrick’s book, Good Money Revolution.
31:37 - Actionable methods in which you can start increasing your income.
And much, much more!
*Disclaimer: Slight timestamp discrepancies may occur due to podcast platform differences.
BOOKS AND RESOURCES
- Join the exclusive TIP Mastermind Community to engage in meaningful stock investing discussions with Kyle and the other community members.
- Get 5 free chapters of Derrick’s new book, Good Money Revolution.
- Check out Derrick’s book.
- Related episode: Listen to MI080: To Be A Successful Investor, You Need A Budget W/ Jesse Mecham, or watch the video.
- Related episode: Listen to MI131: Richer, Wiser, Happier w/ William Green, or watch the video.
NEW TO THE SHOW?
- Check out our Millennial Investing Starter Packs.
- Browse through all our episodes (complete with transcripts) here.
- Try Kyle’s favorite tool for picking stock winners and managing our portfolios: TIP Finance.
- Enjoy exclusive perks from our favorite Apps and Services.
- Stay up-to-date on financial markets and investing strategies through our daily newsletter, We Study Markets.
- Learn how to better start, manage, and grow your business with the best business podcasts.
SPONSORS
Support our free podcast by supporting our sponsors:
Connect with Derrick: Website | Instagram
Connect with Clay: Twitter
HELP US OUT!
Help us reach new listeners by leaving us a rating and review on Apple Podcasts! It takes less than 30 seconds and really helps our show grow, which allows us to bring on even better guests for you all! Thank you – we really appreciate it!
Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm
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