CW Blogcast 70 - California’s Drought: Changing Real Estate?

04/23/15 • 4 min

In the Gold Rush days, the slogan was “California or Bust!” But now, as the Golden State faces yet another year of its historic drought, “Leave California or Bust!” may become the new rallying cry for the people and enterprises facing a waterless future. And that, say real state experts, could change the US housing landscape forever.

The entire state of California is under drought conditions ranging from “abnormally dry” to “extraordinary drought,” which trumps even “extreme drought” in severity. The drought has been going on for so long that not even heavy rainfall has made a dent in the statewide shortfall.

If you live in greener climes, it may be tempting to dismiss the crisis as just California’s problem. It is partially self-inflicted: the state is home to over 1400 golf courses, which are draining aquifers faster than they can be replenished. The residents of Palm Springs alone use over 700 gallons of water per person per day. Fracking, Disneyland and the state’s love of water parks may be as much to blame as climate conditions.

But regardless of the causes, the effects of California’s drought ripple out into the rest of the country and the world. California is America’s little known agricultural breadbasket, responsible for providing over two-thirds of the country’s fruits and veggies, and nearly a hundred percent of its walnuts, pistachios and other nuts.

Those crops require a lot of water – nearly 5 gallons to bring a walnut to your table. Extended drought means fewer crops brought to market and at much higher prices, with shortages of staples like lettuce and tomatoes in some markets around the country.

In order to stay profitable, agriculture concerns and other businesses may have to seek out greener, wetter locations in order to stay profitable. Moving these businesses out of California and into less populated areas of the South and Midwest could lower costs and keep profits up for years to come.

And if major businesses and industries leave California, their workers will follow. Some real estate and environmental experts are predicting mass migrations out of California, not just by corporate entities but individuals too, driven by persistent shortages and skyrocketing water prices.

That, some fear, could trigger a real estate collapse in the Golden State that would affect housing prices and demand at all points of the spectrum, from low end inland communities to high priced luxury homes in places like the Bay area, Bel Air and Palm Springs.

Drought conditions driving people out of the state are likely to discourage new residents from moving in. Property values could plummet, even in the priciest markets. Some market watchers predict a massive wave of mortgage defaults and foreclosures similar to the situation that triggered the last big housing collapse back in 2008. California’s economy could crash, with repercussions not just for the state but also for the US economy as a whole, given the state’s high population and concentration of large corporations.

Crisis for some can mean opportunity for others. The Western states near California might not reap much benefit from a large-scale migration out of California, though. Those states - Arizona, New Mexico and Nevada in particular – have their own water problems to face, and they may face a fate similar to California’s in the not too distant future.

But California’s troubles could breathe new life into smaller markets in the South, East and Midwest as its businesses and residents shift eastward. As a recent article from The Natural News points out, California could lose up to two thirds of its population as its supply of sustainable water shrinks.

That could create both a housing crunch and a housing boom in other areas of the country, as limited supply meets increased demand. There’s already a shortage of available housing for purchase in some areas of the country, and prices are rising, making some real estate experts worry about the formation of another housing bubble that could collapse at some near future date.

The ‘California effect” could complicate that scenario as new migrants create more competition for available properties. But for investors who take Jason Hartman’s advice to diversify holdings in as many markets as possible, the coming demand could create new opportunities in the form of a bigger tenant pool and higher ROI on rental properties.

It’s too early to predict the actual outcomes of California’s stubborn drought. Still, savvy investors hoping to build wealth in real estate may find gold in the coming rush - away from those hills.

Previous Episode

CW Blogcast 69 - The US Rental Market: Headed for a Slowdown?

Is the red-hot rental market getting ready to cool down?

The US housing market continues to recover, fueled by promising numbers for employment and other consumer sectors. But major shifts in the housing landscape may be changing all that, as the balance tilts between renting and owning houses in 2015 and beyond.

The devastating crash of 2008 that left the housing sector in tatters and created conditions for dramatic changes in the way Americans choose and maintain places to live. When a combination of reckless lending and unprepared buyers led to large-scale mortgage defaults and foreclosures, the effects were felt throughout all aspects of the housing industry.

Among these effects: shortages of available houses to buy, tougher mortgage lending standards, and a boom in the rental market. Now, though, the consequences of all these things are tipping the balance in the housing market again – and that may mean changes in strategy for investors building a portfolio in rental income property.

Though the housing market began to recover in 2009 and beyond, home buying stayed relatively flat – but rental demand began to surge. A sluggish economy with an uncertain job outlook meant that homeownership was out of the question for many people. Not only that, in the aftermath of the housing crisis new lending standards imposed by the government made it more difficult to qualify for a mortgage.

What’s more, there were fewer houses available to buy. Construction of new dwellings ran behind demand, and exiting homes were either tied up in foreclosure proceedings or auctioned off in bulk to international investor consortiums. American home buying fell to its lowest levels in over two decades.

But for all these reasons and a few others the rental market was heating up. Those who couldn’t qualify for houses or who hose not to buy for reasons both personal and economic were seeking out rentals in markets across the country. And as demand increased so did rents.

But now, according to new data from the giant real-estate database Zillow and reports from other industry watchers, the rental market may be hitting its limits. In markets large and small, two trends may be responsible for the lowdown.

Rents have been steadily rising in the years after the crash, until in some markets they’re currently at or near record levels. That’s not just in high end high demand areas like Los Angeles and New York – it’s a trend in mid range and smaller markets too. And while local and state laws may put caps on the amount that landlords can raise rents in a given year, property owners can keep raising rents within those parameters.

In previous years, that might have been a self-defeating tactic for the landlord/entrepreneur who wanted to keep a property rented. Tenants could always choose to move rather than pay the increased rent.

But now, there’s a shortage of rental dwellings in many markets. The decline in homeownership and the increased demand for rental housing means that tenants are to an extent captive audiences, forced to pay whatever rent their landlord imposes because there’s no place to move.

That’s partly because of a surge in home buying by international investors with cash. In a move similar to the one that contributed to a shortage of homes for purchase after the housing crash, these groups are buying up single-family homes and complexes.

Though new stats reported by Zillow show that for many people, owning a home is half as expensive as renting, some renters who could buy a home are choosing not to – perhaps spooked by the specter of the housing collapse. Still others may be ready to take the plunge into home ownership – if they can meet down payment and credit requirements.

What does all this mean for investors working to build wealth in income property, as Jason Hartman recommends? The slowdown in home buying means more properties available for investors to purchase. And that means new opportunities to meet the continued demand for rental housing from a tenant pool that isn’t shrinking.

Next Episode

CW Blogcast 71 - Millennials Are Making Money In Real Estate

The “Millennials” have been in the headlines a lot lately – and not for good reasons. Alternately criticized for their values and work ethic and pitied for their crushing load of student loan debt, this generation of new and recent college grads seems to be facing a bleak financial future. But a young real estate investor is proving that smart money management can pay off handsomely – even for those cash strapped millennials.

A recent article from NextShark profiles 27-year-old Brian Maida, who bought his first house two years after graduating from college. Now, with two properties under his belt, he's anticipating a comfortable retirement from his investments. His journey from income challenged new graduate to investor/entrepreneur demonstrates that you’re never too young to start investing.

Millennials – those born between about 1985 and 2005 – now make up the largest demographic group in the United States, eclipsing even their famous predecessors the Baby Boomers. By most accounts, they’re a generation in trouble, too.

New college graduates now leave school with an average of $10,000 in student loan debt. They struggle in a tight job market to find work in their fields, and many end up wither spending their entire working life paying off those debts or defaulting completely.

In the workplace, too, millennials struggle with a culture that’s often at odds with their values and lifestyles. Employers used to dealing with a more traditional kind of worker who understands and respects the formalities of the 9 to 5 world claim that their millennial-age employees don’t seem to get it. They see no reason for restrictive work hours and dress codes, and they prefer communicating electronically than in person.

It’s perhaps no wonder that the mainstream work and social culture despairs of the millennials. And many of them despair too, stuck living with family and friends to make ends meet and delaying traditional milestones like marriage, children and home purchases.

But that doesn’t have to be the case. Students are finding alternatives to taking out massive student loan debt to finance their education, such as using alternative avenues to get college coursework out of the way before enrolling, and taking advantage of free programs and scholarships instead of loans.

They’re turning to entrepreneurship rather than traditional employment, too, seeking funding from crowdsourcing, creating online companies that require little by way of physical resources, and attracting investors eager to back an innovative idea.

They’re also investing – and that’s what makes Brian Maida’s story an example of turning some of the stereotypical downsides of millennial life into a lucrative upside – and a model for others to follow.

As NextShark reports, the New Jersey native opted to live at home after graduating from college, like many of his peers. While that’s seen as an indication that the person in question simply can’t make it on their own, Maida put his time to good use, saving up enough to buy his first house. Then he leveraged that investment to buy his second property a few years later – and now, a few years shy of 30, he’s looking toward buying a third.

The takeaway for cash strapped millennials (and anyone hoping to build long term wealth from investing)? Trim expenses wherever possible, maintain a sensible budget and keep your credit clean. Careful saving can result in a down payment in a relatively short time – and once that first property is yours, its earning power can be leveraged for a mortgage to buy the next.

For new graduates who are struggling with college loan debt, the picture may be a little trickier, but not impossible. Loan defaults and late payments create a blight on credit scores, so it’s important to work with lenders and investigate restructuring and loan forgiveness options.

Millennials may be getting more than their share of bad press. But young investor Brian Maida shows that careful money management and a willingness to learn the ins and outs of the investing process can open doors for the start of a long-term career in rental real estate. And his strategies echo Jason Hartman’s essential advice to investors of any age: to get educated, stay in control of the process – and leverage the power of a mortgage’s “good debt” whenever possible.