Tariff Dips Create Buying Opportunities: Petra Bakosova, Hull Tactical

05/13/25 • 27 min

Petra Bakosova of Hull Tactical joins the podcast to discuss her views on the Federal Reserve, labor markets, the impact of tariffs, and what this all means for financial markets.

This podcast episode was recorded on May 8, 2025. An ‘actionable highlights’ reel was published that day for premium subscribers, who also received the full podcast episode the day after recording. Sign up for premium membership packages on our Substack.

Content Highlights

The Fed last week expressed concerns about risks in the labor market. There is nothing in any of the data that bears this out yet. However, there are other ways that tariffs have had an effect (3:36);
Hull Tactical has been “close to 100% invested” and views this as a good time to be active allocating risk (6:14);
Background on the guest (10:28);
Philosophy behind Hull Tactical’s investment strategy (12:45);
The danger of ‘overfitting’: Data will confess to anything if you torture it long enough. How to guard against it (16:51);
Blackjack and how it inspired the strategy (21:31).

More on the Guest

Websites: HullTactical.com, HullTacticalFunds.com;
Twitter/X: @HullTactical.

Petra Bakosova of Hull Tactical joins the podcast to discuss her views on the Federal Reserve, labor markets, the impact of tariffs, and what this all means for financial markets.

Content Highlights

The Fed last week expressed concerns about risks in the labor market. There is nothing in any of the data that bears this out yet. However, there are other ways that tariffs have had an effect (3:36);
Hull Tactical has been “close to 100% invested” and views this as a good time to be active allocating risk (6:14);
Background on the guest (10:28);
Philosophy behind Hull Tactical’s investment strategy (12:45);
The danger of ‘overfitting’: Data will confess to anything if you torture it long enough. How to guard against it (16:51);
Blackjack and how it inspired the strategy (21:31).

Previous Episode

Tariffs Have Changed 'Plumbing' of Global Finance: Axel Merk

Axel Merk of Merk Investments rejoins the podcast to discuss his view that Trump’s tariffs have fundamentally unbalanced the global financial order. This has created real risks, but also opportunities...

This podcast was recorded on Wednesday, April 30 and was made available to premium subscribers the following day. More information on premium subscriptions is available here.

Content Highlights

The ‘plumbing’ of the global financial system has been upended as a result of tariffs (1:35);
China will not dump all their US Treasury holdings overnight. But tariffs will impact future flows. A fragmentation away from US dollar-denominated assets is likely (6:50);
Are tariffs inflationary or deflationary? They’re a supply shock: stagflation is the result (10:42);
If global trade is impeded and ultimately curtailed, how does this not end badly for economic growth? It will require a mental change from the existing environment. Fortunately, history has ample examples of this transition... (16:19);
Europe and China may face trouble in this new world order. So will Turkey. “There will be more tension” (24:45);
The case for gold and gold miners (32:16);
Does the US enter recession this year? Economic numbers are going to be distorted, so it may not matter. But the spike in imports heading into tariffs will almost certainly create inventory build-up... (37:18).