The AwardsWatch Podcast

We hope you enjoyed our first Emmy podcast of the season, The Limited Series Categories, because now it's time for comedy.

Comedy is a section that feels both packed with competition yet also surprisingly slim. We know the latter part of that because of the Emmys' new sliding scale of nomination slots based on submissions by category. While it seemed like we all did nothing but consume massive amounts of television during 2020, we ended up with fewer slots this year than last, with some back down to just five, including Outstanding Comedy Series and Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series.

Much of the conversation revolves around just three shows: Ted Lasso from Apple TV+ and Hacks and The Flight Attendant, both from HBO Max. Each are expected to rack up a boatload of nominations and in the case of Ted Lasso, two or three in the supporting categories.

But several shows could also find themselves with strong numbers on nomination morning including Hulu's PEN15, Netflix's The Kominsky Method and even a bit of a comeback for network television with ABC's black-ish, plus Kenan and Mr. Mayor from NBC.

In just 45 minutes, AwardsWatch TV Awards Editor Tyler Doster and I manage to take on Comedy Series, all acting categories (including guest) plus writing and directing.

Welcome to the AwardsWatch Final Oscar Winner Predictions Podcast!

I am honored to be joined by Amanda Spears, the creator of the #PresentAll24 hashtag and movement that brought film and Oscar fans together when the Academy and show producers announced it would be pushing four categories to commercial breaks. The wave of social media support to keep all 24 categories on the live broadcast moved actors, directors and filmmakers to join the push and late last Thursday night, they reversed their decision.

On this 73rd podcast, first time guest Amanda and I break down this year's race not just its controversies but how we talk about the Oscar race, including how the controversies of Green Book and Bohemian Rhapsody have impacted how we do that.

We work our way into categories that are up in the air such as Supporting Actress where Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk) and Rachel Weisz (The Favourite) are neck and neck.

The technical categories give us a lot to talk about, especially in Production and Costume Design that see a close race between The Favourite and Black Panther and how closely other categories, like Makeup & Hairstyling, Sound Mixing and Editing are closely tied to Best Picture nominees.

As we move into the more locked categories (like Supporting Actor, Best Director) we find ourselves at Best Picture, where we reveal our rankings from #8 to #1 and the ins and outs of why and how.

Amanda Spears can be found on Twitter at @msamandaspears and her writing can be found at GoldDerby.

Keep an eye out for my FINAL Oscar winner predictions at awardswatch.com this week.

This podcast runs 1h 53m with music. Enjoy!

Opening: "And the Oscar goes to..." montage

Closing music: "New York City By Day" by Thomas Newman from the Original Motion Picture Soundtrack of Desperately Seeking Susan

It's been quite a while since our last Oscar Podcast but we're back with #58 talking about the downfalls of Harvey Weinstein, Kevin Spacey and the avalanche of accusations and allegations that have rocked Hollywood this last month. The first section of the podcast my guest, Gold Rush Gang member Matt Dinn, and I talk about the impact of this on the current landscape of the Oscar race, specifically to The Weinstein Company's awards efforts and the surprising news last week that Ridley Scott would cut Kevin Spacey out of his Getty kidnapping drama All the Money in the World, replace him with Christopher Plummer (the actor he originally wanted for the role of Getty) and the race to do this and keep the film's December 22nd release date.

The Gold Rush Gang's 2018 Oscar Predictions

Then we examine the exciting and complicated Supporting Actor race with its multiple dual contenders from the same films this year, including Call Me By Your Name, The Shape of Water and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri. We make our cases for the top 3: Sam Rockwell, Willem Dafoe and Michael Stuhlbarg as potential winners and if Armie Hammer can break the 26-year curse in this category.

Interview: CALL ME BY YOUR NAME’s Luca Guadagnino and Michael Stuhlbarg

Next is Supporting Actress which focuses on frontrunners Allison Janney (I, Tonya) and Laurie Metcalf (Lady Bird) and the mother-daughter theme of this category and the contenders at large. I make my case for Tiffany Haddish (Girls Trip) to get in if Universal pushes hard and gets her out there and that this acting category could be the only that will have a POC represented (most notably, Octavia Spencer in The Shape of Water and Mary J. Blige in Mudbound).

Lead Actress gets a ton of talk time (of course) with Meryl Streep (The Post) and Frances McDormand (Three Billboards) dominating that as well as looking at our existing top 5 and wondering how or who could break through that solid-looking lineup that includes Sally Hawkins (The Shape of Water), Margot Robbie (I, Tonya) and Saoirse Ronan (Lady Bird).

The trailer for Steven Spielberg’s THE POST has been delivered

Lead Actor also finds itself with three solid contenders but open doors for spots 4 and 5. Will Tom Hanks go supporting for The Post like Jason Robards did for All the President's Men? Will Jake Gyllenhaal see another year where he hits precursors only to be snubbed at Oscar? What about how very white this category is? It seems only Daniel Kaluuya (Get Out) and Denzel Washington (Roman J. Israel, Esq.) could make that not happen but it's going to take some heavy lifting by their studios to do it.

With intro and outro this podcast runs 2h 7m.

Intro: The Post trailer via 20th Century Fox

Outro: "New York City by Day" by Thomas Newman from the Desperately Seeking Susan Original Motion Picture Soundtrack

In this 43rd Oscar podcast, I am pleased to welcome special guest Kyle Buchanan of Vulture.com.

Most of the conversation centers around the Best Actress category as it is a wealth of possibility this year. Natalie Portman (Jackie), Viola Davis (Fences) and Emma Stone (La La Land) land in the in 'sure thing' positions (although Kyle has some thoughts about Davis...) but what then? Annette Bening (20th Century Women), Isabelle Huppert (Elle), Amy Adams (Arrival and Nocturnal Animals), Meryl Streep (Florence Foster Jenkins), Ruth Negga (Loving), Taraji P. Henson (Hidden Figures) and Jessica Chastain (Miss Sloane) all seem to have paths to the final five. We talk about what role an Oscar pundit has in advocacy for a film in the race

We also talk about what role an Oscar pundit has in advocacy for a film in the race and chat about how 'Oscar Bait' has become quite the pejorative in pundit talk, using Kyle and Mark Harris' fantastic piece on it as a jumping off point. We also discuss how early major contender Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk was cut short by awful reviews at the New York Film Festival.

Check out the most up to the minute predictions from the Gold Rush Gang starting right here.

In part one of two final Emmy prediction podcasts before the nominations are announced on July 14th, I am joined by AwardsWatch Emmy Experts Chris and Jonathan to go over Drama and Comedy Series and their respective Lead and Supporting categories as well as Limited Series, TV Movie, Variety Talk, Variety Sketch, Variety Special and Special Class Program. With so many categories and Limited Series alone being one of the best and most competitive in decades, we're going to save that (and the Writing, Directing and Guest predictions) for the next one.

We delve deep into why I think The Americans will break big this year with multiple acting nominations as well as the big one, Drama Series. Also, is Homeland still back on track and can anything upset Game of Thrones from repeating?

In Lead Actress in a Comedy Series Jonathan offers his reasons for predicting Rachel Bloom from Crazy Ex-Girlfriend to score the CW's first major nomination, while I think Ilana Glazer has a good shot for Broad City and Chris makes the case for the return of Lena Dunham (Girls).

We discuss the 3rd season of Orange is the New Black being lighter in tone and can it still make it into Drama Series or will it just be Uzo Aduba repeating? Horace and Pete, Billions, Better Call Saul and Mr. Robot all find their way into the discussion and Jonathan and I defend dropping Modern Family in Comedy Series in favor of Mom. We wonder if black-ish will be the breakout we think it's going to be (hint, it totally is) hope that Samantha Bee can break the boys club of Variety Talk Series with Full Frontal.

This podcast runs 2h 15m (without intro/outro music) so get a snack. Or maybe a drink.