EP90: 2020 NBA Finals Preview, Breakdown, and Predicted Winner

In today's episode, we preview and breakdown the 2020 NBA Finals matchup between the 5th seed Miami Heat v.s. the 1st seed Los Angeles Lakers. Both teams had a particularly "easy" path to the NBA Finals nevertheless they were the best two teams in the NBA Bubble Post-season with both having a 12-3 record.
The coincidence of this series is quite delicious and will own the intrigue and conversation until the ball goes up Wednesday in Game 1. LeBron James will be playing against the team he helped win a pair of championships. This scenario will get heavy airplay in the build-up, as it should; LeBron was a solid favorite to return to the championship round once the Lakers got Anthony Davis, while the Heat make for a surprise guest. The Lakers bring a pair of All-NBA first-team members while Miami hasn’t had anyone on that level since
We break down all things Miami/LA this episode.
Three things to watch

1. Can Goran Dragic maintain his high level for yet another series?
2. How can the Lakers take advantage of their size?
3. Will the Heat’s young shooters cause problems for L.A.?

Number to know
40.7 -- The Lakers have averaged 40.7 points per game in the restricted area in the playoffs. That's down from a league-high 44.1 in the regular season, but still 7.5 more than any other team has averaged in the postseason.

By wide margins, the Lakers rank first in both field goal percentage in the restricted area (70.9%) and the percentage of their shots that have come in the restricted area (34%). LeBron James is responsible for almost half (48%) of their 610 restricted area points via his own buckets (87) and assists (59).

The Lakers have shot better from outside the paint in the playoffs (37.7%, effective field goal percentage of 50.4%) than they did in the regular season (35.5%, 47.7%). But protecting the rim remains extra critical in regard to slowing down the offense that ranked No. 1 in each of the last two rounds (114.4 points scored per 100 possessions in the conference semis, 117.8 per 100 in the conference finals).

That's why we may see a lot more 2-3 zone from the Heat in The Finals. The Lakers scored 39 points on 35 possessions against Miami's zone in the regular season and offer a different look than Boston with their two-big lineups. Though the Celtics got a lot more comfortable against the zone late in the last round, the Heat stuck with it, and it was critical in their fourth-quarter comeback in Game 6.

Most importantly, while open jumpers can be found against it with proper execution, the zone keeps Bam Adebayo near the basket a lot more than the Heat's man-to-man defense. Against this particular opponent, allowing open jumpers is far more preferable than allowing shots at the rim.