From the Vault: Ukraine & Intelligence: One Year on – with Shane Harris
12/26/23 • 75 min
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Summary
Shane Harris (Twitter, LinkedIn) joins Andrew (Twitter; LinkedIn) to discuss the role of intelligence in the Ukraine conflict one year after it began. Shane reports on intelligence for the Washington Post and is the author of two books.
What You’ll Learn Intelligence
-Where we are with the war in Ukraine
-The role intelligence agencies are playing in the conflict
-The leadership of Zelensky and Putin
-What it’s like to report on spies
-Dealing with sources inside the intelligence agencies
Reflections
-The tenacity of the Ukrainian people and army
-History as both repetitive and unpredictable
Episode Notes
This week on SpyCast, Shane Harris of The Washington Post joins Andrew to reflect on the previous year and discuss the role of intelligence within the war in Ukraine. He has been writing about these issues for more than two decades, including a period with the Wall Street Journal. He is the author of two books, The Watchers, on the rise of surveillance in the US, and @War, on the rise of the military-internet complex. He was part of a team that won the Pulitzer Prize for Public Service in 2021.
Quote of the Week
“At the outset, [I] believed that what we were looking at was probably a pretty swift Russian victory ... They would come in, they would decapitate the central government in Kiev in the first 72 hours, and it would be bloody, and it would be violent, but that Russia would prevail because they were deemed to have the superior military in terms of technology experience numbers. Turns out, all those things were spectacularly wrong.” – Shane Harris.
Resources *SpyCasts*
-How Artificial Intelligence is Changing the Spy Game with Mike Susong (2023)
-Dealing with Russia A Conversation with Counterintelligence Legend Jim Olson (2022)
-Becoming a Russian Intelligence Officer with Janosh Neumann (2022)
-The Information Battlespace: Foreign Denial and Deception with Bill Parquette (2022)
*Beginner Resources*
-Has Putin's war failed and what does Russia want?, P. Kirby, BBC (2023)
-A Brief History of Modern Ukraine, BBC (2022) [YouTube video]
-Russia-Ukraine Relations in 60 Seconds, CBC News (2022)
Summary
Shane Harris (Twitter, LinkedIn) joins Andrew (Twitter; LinkedIn) to discuss the role of intelligence in the Ukraine conflict one year after it began. Shane reports on intelligence for the Washington Post and is the author of two books.
What You’ll Learn Intelligence
-Where we are with the war in Ukraine
-The role intelligence agencies are playing in the conflict
-The leadership of Zelensky and Putin
-What it’s like to report on spies
-Dealing with sources inside the intelligence agencies
Reflections
-The tenacity of the Ukrainian people and army
-History as both repetitive and unpredictable
Episode Notes
This week on SpyCast, Shane Harris of The Washington Post joins Andrew to reflect on the previous year and discuss the role of intelligence within the war in Ukraine. He has been writing about these issues for more than two decades, including a period with the Wall Street Journal. He is the author of two books, The Watchers, on the rise of surveillance in the US, and @War, on the rise of the military-internet complex. He was part of a team that won the Pulitzer Prize for Public Service in 2021.
Quote of the Week
“At the outset, [I] believed that what we were looking at was probably a pretty swift Russian victory ... They would come in, they would decapitate the central government in Kiev in the first 72 hours, and it would be bloody, and it would be violent, but that Russia would prevail because they were deemed to have the superior military in terms of technology experience numbers. Turns out, all those things were spectacularly wrong.” – Shane Harris.
Resources *SpyCasts*
-How Artificial Intelligence is Changing the Spy Game with Mike Susong (2023)
-Dealing with Russia A Conversation with Counterintelligence Legend Jim Olson (2022)
-Becoming a Russian Intelligence Officer with Janosh Neumann (2022)
-The Information Battlespace: Foreign Denial and Deception with Bill Parquette (2022)
*Beginner Resources*
-Has Putin's war failed and what does Russia want?, P. Kirby, BBC (2023)
-A Brief History of Modern Ukraine, BBC (2022) [YouTube video]
-Russia-Ukraine Relations in 60 Seconds, CBC News (2022)
Previous Episode
“Making Sense of China, Taiwan, & America” – Pacific Intelligence with Bonny Lin
Summary
Bonny Lin (Biography) joins Andrew (Twitter; LinkedIn) to discuss the current state of China and intelligence. Bonny is the Director of the ChinaPower Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
What You’ll LearnIntelligence
-China’s economic power and status
-The current landscape of Chinese intelligence
-China’s relationship with Taiwan
-The ChinaPower Project
Reflections
-Power and prominence
-The global community as a complicated ecosystem
And much, much more ...Quotes of the Week
“In the last couple of years, we've seen really a securitization of how China views intelligence and national security in general. And just this July, we saw China pass a revised counter espionage law. So with the whole host of laws of China's past since 2014 ... it basically has made collection of intelligence and protecting Chinese national security the responsibility of every Chinese citizen.” - Bonny Lin.
Resources SURFACE SKIM*SpyCasts*
-The Eye of Horus: Egyptian Intelligence with Dina Rezk (2023)
-China’s Corporate Spy War with CNBC’s Eamon Javers (2023)
-The Counterintelligence Chief with FBI Assistant Director Alan Kohler (2023)
-Trafficking Data: The Digital Struggle with China with Aynne Kokas (2022)
*Beginner Resources*
-China-Taiwan crisis explained: What is behind the tensions?, ITV News, YouTube (2022) [3 min. video]
-8 things you need to know about China’s economy, World Economic Forum (2016) [Short article]
-Xi Jinping, Forbes (n.d) [Brief profile]
DEEPER DIVEBooks
-Spies and Lies: How China's Greatest Covert Operations Fooled the World, A. Joske (Hardie Grant, 2022)
-The Chinese Invasion Threat: Taiwan’s Defense and American Strategy in Asia, I. Easton (Eastbridge Books, 2019)
-The Hundred-Year Marathon: China's Secret Strategy to Replace America as the Global Superpower, M. Pillsbury (St. Martin’s Griffin, 2016)
Primary Sources
-National Intelligence Estimate – China-Taiwan: Prospects or Cross-Strait Relations (1999)
-Forecasting the Sino-Vietnamese Split (1986)
-China-Vietnam: A Status Report (1983)
-Establishment of a China Task Force (1966)
-Communist Chinese Intervention in the Vietnam War (1966)
-Controls on Trade with Communist China (1955)
*Wildcard Resource*
-Need a good cookie recipe for the holidays? Try this recipe adapted from the 1300-year old cookies found during the 1915 excavation of the Astana Cemetery in Xinjiang, China.
-The petrified cookies are currently part of the collection of the British Museum, and still look quite tasty!
Next Episode
From the Vault: “The Counterintelligence Chief” – with FBI Assistant Director Alan Kohler
Summary
Alan Kohler joins Andrew to discuss the FBI’s counterintelligence division. He is a recipient of the FBI Director’s Award for Outstanding Counterintelligence Investigation.
***FULL SHOWNOTES AVAILABLE HERE***What You’ll LearnIntelligence
-Counterintelligence vs. Counterespionage
-How the FBI recruit’s foreign agents
-Ideological motivations behind spying
-Effect of technology on counterintelligence
Reflections
-Staying grounded under pressure
-The value of creativity
Notes
Alan Kohler (LinkedIn, Website) has been the FBI Assistant Director for Counterintelligence since 2020. Alan and Andrew (Twitter; LinkedIn) talk all things counterintelligence.
***FULL RESOURCES AVAILABLE HERE****SpyCasts*
-The FBI & Cyber with Cyber Division Chief Bryan Vorndran, Part 1 (2022)
-The FBI & Cyber with Cyber Division Chief Bryan Vorndran, Part 2 (2022)
-My Global Career as a Female FBI Agent with Kathy Stearman (2021)
-The FBI Way with Counterintelligence Spy Chief Frank Figliuzzi (2021)
***FULL RESOURCES AVAILABLE HERE****Beginner Resources*
-What We Investigate, FBI (n.d.) [webpage]
-FAQ’S, FBI (n.d.) [webpage]
-US Opens Counterintelligence Investigation into China Every 12 Hours (Dir. Wray), MSNBC (2022) [video]
-What We Know About China’s Spy Agency, Bloomberg Originals (2019) [video]
-Hollow Nickel/Rudolf Abel, FBI (n.d.) [Article]
-NCSC Mission, Vision, and Goals, ODNI (n.d.) [Website]
Glossary:
-Counterintelligence: Information gathered, and activities conducted to identify, deceive, exploit, disrupt, or protect against espionage or other intelligence activities
-FBI Attaché: a special agent assigned to a U.S. embassy or consulate overseas to liaise with local law enforcement and intelligence agencies. They pursue terrorist, intelligence, and criminal threats with international dimensions.
-Occam’s Razor: a rule of thumb theory that states when you are faced with competing explanations for the same phenomenon, the simplest one is probably the correct one. Attributed to William of Ockham, a 14th century English theologian.
***FULL RESOURCES AVAILABLE HERE***
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