Sinica Podcast - Overreach and overreaction, with Susan Shirk

Overreach and overreaction, with Susan Shirk

10/20/22 • 66 min

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This week on Sinica, Kaiser chats with Susan Shirk, former Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for East Asia Pacific and Research Professor and Chair of the 21st Century China Center at the School of Global Policy and Strategy at UCSD, about how the deliberately collective leadership of the Hu Jintao years set the stage for the over-concentration of power under Xi Jinping and created conditions for overreach. She argues that Chinese overreach was met with American overreaction — not just in the Trump years, but continuing into the Biden administration.

11:35 – The thesis of Overreach and misconceptions based on the title

15:50 – The decline of collective leadership

19:57 – Selection process of politburo members

27:48 – The advantages of China’s former collective leadership system

31:40 – How collective leadership often lead to overreach

39:40 – How personalistic, overly centralized rule can also result in overreach

43:02 – Increased paranoia, insecurity, and “permanent purge” culture under Xi

49:59 – American overreaction to China’s ambitions

A transcript of this episode is available at TheChinaProject.com.

Recommendations:

Susan – Born in Blackness: Africa, Africans, and the Making of the Modern World by Howard French

Kaiser – His hobby of Asian archery and finding a community/activity you’re passionate about outside your professional line of work

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11:35 – The thesis of Overreach and misconceptions based on the title

15:50 – The decline of collective leadership

19:57 – Selection process of politburo members

27:48 – The advantages of China’s former collective leadership system

31:40 – How collective leadership often lead to overreach

39:40 – How personalistic, overly centralized rule can also result in overreach

43:02 – Increased paranoia, insecurity, and “permanent purge” culture under Xi

49:59 – American overreaction to China’s ambitions

A transcript of this episode is available at TheChinaProject.com.

Recommendations:

Susan – Born in Blackness: Africa, Africans, and the Making of the Modern World by Howard French

Kaiser – His hobby of Asian archery and finding a community/activity you’re passionate about outside your professional line of work

See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Previous Episode

Podcasting The Prince: Sue-Lin Wong of The Economist on her Xi Jinping podcast

This week on Sinica, Kaiser and Jeremy are joined by Sue-Lin Wong, who until recently covered China for The Economist and hosted an eight-part podcast series all about Xi Jinping called The Prince. The podcast features interviews with a wide range of China-watchers, peers of Xi, dissidents, and many others who offer insights into what makes Xi tick.

3:38 – Reason behind naming the podcast “the Prince”

5:53 – Differences between traditional journalism and podcasting

9:52 – The role of Sue-Lin’s mother in the podcast

13:37 – How corruption influenced Xi’s leadership style

19:29 – Identifying Xi’s greatest anxieties: party in-fighting, the collapse of the USSR

22:48 – Early signs of Xi’s ideological underpinnings most China watchers missed

29:33 – Did the CCP’s internal crisis make Xi’s rise inevitable?

32:57 – Is Xi Jinping the most powerful man in the world?

37:12 – Reframing the engagement debate after Xi’s administration

41:51 – David Rennie’s view on China: “a giant utilitarian experiment”

46:45 – Key insights on Xi that listeners of the Prince should walk away with

52:16 – How Sue-Lin would brief an American policymaker on Xi Jinping’s main motivations

A transcript of this episode is available at TheChinaProject.com.

Recommendations:

Jeremy – A Matter of Perspective: Parsing Insider Accounts of Xi Jinping Ahead of the 20th Party Congress, an article on The China Story written by Neil Thomas

Sue-Lin – Race to the Galaxy, a two-player board game

Kaiser – Interview with the Vampire, a new AMC TV series

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Next Episode

Grifter, chaos agent, or CCP spy? The New Yorker's Evan Osnos on Guo Wengui

This week on Sinica, Evan Osnos, staff writer for The New Yorker, joins hosts Kaiser Kuo and Jeremy Goldkorn to talk about his new piece on one of the most puzzling figures to come out of China: Guo Wengui, a.k.a. Miles Kwok, who took what he learned about dealing with power and money in China and applied those lessons to the U.S., insinuating himself with leading figures of the American right. Who is this mysterious man, and what is he really after? In an unscripted episode that will bring some listeners back to the grotty apartment in Beijing where Sinica recorded in its very early days, Evan, Kaiser, and Jeremy parse the mysteries of the strange phenomenon of Guo Wengui.

03:37 – Who is Guo Wengui?

10:07 – Orville Schell’s experience with Guo Wengui

14:48 – Steve Bannon’s comparison between Guo and Trump

17:40 – The process of fact-checking this piece

23:03 – Guo’s potential ties to the pro-Xi Jinping clique

26:02 – VOA’s interview with Guo

30:06 – Guo’s campaign against Teng Biao and other Chinese dissidents

33:57 – Guo’s role as an interlocutor on behalf of the MSS

39:00 – Steve Wynn’s efforts to extradite Guo

42:10 – Guo’s impact on the Chinese diaspora community

45:11 – Guo’s influence on US-China relations

A transcript of this interview is available at TheChinaProject.com.

Recommendations:

Jeremy: "President Trump's First Term," by Evan Osnos, a New Yorker article written in 2016 predicting what would happen to the U.S. if Donald Trump won in 2016. (Spoiler: he did. And Evan was right).

Evan: An audio tribute to legendary New Yorker editor John Bennet: https://www.cjr.org/special_report/johnbennet.php

Kaiser: The Pillars of the Earth by Ken Follet, a forgivably melodramatic historical fiction novel with an emphasis on architecture

See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.