What is up with these crypto ETFs??? (& more 2023 trends)

So where’s the spot bitcoin ETF and what’s up with these crypto ETFs in general? Will the SPY lose its crown this year? Are semi-transparent ETFs are raw deal? This episode we’re going to be talking about 2023 ETF trends and I thrilled to have some of industry’s most knowledgeable people here to rap about it all: Nate Geraci, host of ETF Prime podcast and President of the ETF Store, and Phil Bak, founder of Armada ETFs.

I wanted to have this talk because a lot of advisors just look at ETFs as well, kinda just there. There’s a lot under the surface though and that is what we are going to talk about today so let’s get onto the show!

We’ll discuss:

• Will the SPY become dethroned?
• What exactly is a spot bitcoin ETF and how is it different from a futures bitcoin ETF?
• Do ESG funds suck? (YES!!!)
• What’s up with these semi-transparent ETFs?
• Small ETFs – worth it or too much of a risk?

For those of you who are new to my blog, my name is Sara. I am a CFA® charterholder and financial advisor marketing consultant. I have a newsletter in which I talk about financial advisor lead generation topics which is best described as “fun and irreverent.”

I am an irreverent and fun marketing consultant for financial advisors.

Are we in a market regime shift?

ETFS can be thought of as a wrapper around an investment strategy. There are so many that when you talk about ETFs you are really talking about what is happening with the economy on a macro level. But in 2022, stocks and bonds went down together and displayed high correlation, suggesting a failure of modern portfolio theory.

In 2023, we are coming out of a market regime we have been in since the recession. You could put your money in to US equities, large cap market cap weighted, and that is where the bulk of market flows have gone. Investors may have to think harder about how they are allocated. Alternative asset classes, physical gold, different realms of fixed income, ETFs that use options strategies for downside protection, and other innovative ETFs may become more popular.

It may be time to rethink fundamental portfolio construction...

Semi-transparent ETFs

Geraci is not bullish at all on semi-transparent ETFs. He feels the daily, full transparency of the ETF wrapper is a huge benefit to investors. Active managers though are worried about having their “secret sauce” made public. Geraci feels those concerns are overstated. Active managers have been evidenced to generate outperformance in an ETF wrapper. There is absolutely the opportunity for front running and slippage but Geraci doesn’t think it matters.

Bak says that before Cathie Wood, there was the belief that you couldn’t really succeed as an active manager using ETFs because of front running; but she disproved all of that.

Quick take: what is a bid-ask spread for an ETF?

The way an ETF trades, there is a value based intrinsically on the underlying assets. If we believe it is worth $25, there may be a bid (amount the buyer is willing to pay) of $24.98, and an offer(ask price) of $25.03 from the seller. There is a spread that is the hedging cost of the market maker. Investors can play the spread any number of ways, but that is basically what keeps the ETF in line with its value.

Transparency for the industry has been a good thing because it has kept ETFs trading in line.

Low-cost ETFs steal the show!

SPY turned 30 this year. It may be overtaken by IVV which trails it by about $70BB in AUM. If you look at flows over the last few years, money is coming out of SPY and into VOO and IVV and Geraci believes it is due to the expense ratios being lower.

SPY, at the time of recording this podcast, was at $369 billion. VOO is at $271, VTI is at $274, and IVV is at $300. Bak believes that if the market is down and there is an opportunity to tax loss harvest, there may be an exodus from SPY.

But if there is a Fed pivot leading to market rally, Bak says, the greatest beneficiary will be small caps. SPY’s crown may be taken by VTI in that case.

Will 2023 be the year for physical gold ETFs?

Geraci is puzzled by the fact that in 2022, every single asset class other than commodities went down, and gold was only down by 2% yet there were not major inflows. There were a laundry list of crypto scams in 2022. Bitcoin was referred to as “digital gold”. Geraci posits that some investors may go for actual gold instead of digital gold in search of an uncorrelated asset if a weaker dollar and inflationary concerns persist.

Iran and Russia are working together to create a Stablecoin backed by physical gold. According to Bak, assets don’t care about the ethics of their investors. If...