Ep 81: Math Mistakes in the Media, Investing, and in Understanding Vaccines

09/23/21 • 40 min

Retire Smarter with Kevin Kroskey, CFP® & Tyler Emrick, CFA® CFP®

In the age of Covid, everyone has seemingly become a data expert .... regardless of one's understanding of data and statistics (sigh). Hear Kevin highlight some recent math errors he's observed in media, relate them to investing errors, and tie in vaccines to boot. He'll describe how making bad comparisons in identifying mutual fund category winners is subject to similar errors to drawing conclusions about the recent Cape Code headline where a Covid outbreak infected 74% of vaccinated people. He'll also explain how butter production in Bangledesh is tied to the S&P 500 and why you should (or shouldn't?) "sell in May and go away." Put your thinking cap on and happy listening! Get more information: https://www.truewealthdesign.com/ep-81-math-mistakes-in-the-media-investing-and-in-understanding-vaccines/ Key Points: 1:02 - Quick shout out for a team member 3:35 - Covid update 6:19 - Background on our topic 11:13 - Deceptive investment performance advertising 14:44 - The vaccine equivalency 19:24 - Correlation does not equal causation 25:37 - Additional examples of vaccine data and cherry-picking 36:50 - Closing thoughts

Previous Episode

Ep 80: Should I Sell a Stock With a Large Taxable Gain?

You may have acquired stock and seen it significantly rise in value over time. Now you're not sure what to do: let it ride or sell, pay taxes, and reinvest in a better portfolio. Astute investors know concentrated stock holdings are suboptimal and expose a portfolio to diversifiable risks. But simply selling regardless of tax consequences is also short-sighted. So how do they best fit into your portfolio and financial plan? Hear Kevin discuss how to think through this complex decision. He will evaluate the costs and expected benefits of making a partial or full transition and discuss how Separately Managed Accounts or SMAs can be used as a tax-smart tool to better optimize your investments in light of concentrated or low-cost basis stock positions. Even if you do not have concentrated or low-cost basis stock positions, the insights you'll get on optimizing your portfolio and drivers of its results make it worth a listen. Show notes: https://www.truewealthdesign.com/ep-80-should-i-sell-a-stock-with-a-large-taxable-gain/ What we discuss on this episode: 3:23 - Background on this tax scenario 8:15 - Selling out of your positions and then reinvesting 14:01 - Statistical modeling to find the best return 18:06 - Formulating the expected returns 19:21 - What to do with legacy holdings 23:53 - The benefit of true customization 29:57 - What to expect from your financial advisor

Next Episode

Ep 82: Social Security Update - Solvency, COLA, & Planning Strategies

The 2021 Social Security Trustee's Report was recently released and the 2022 COLA is near finalized. What can we expect for the COLA and glean from the report? Tune in to hear the important points and key planning implications for your Social Security benefits. Spoiler alert: Social Security solvency is not as bad as you may be led to be believed by the media and planning strategies remain important and are more key in today's low-interest rate world. Read more: https://www.truewealthdesign.com/ep-82-social-security-update-solvency-cola-planning-strategies/ The rundown for this episode: 2:41 - Background on this topic 3:40 - Trustees report 8:07 - Solvency fixes 12:49 - Cost of Living Adjustment 17:30 - Problems that create opportunities 21:35 - Survivor benefits 22:26 - SS using outdated interest rate assumptions 26:48 - Planning implications