Is Polling Broken?

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11/23/23 • 71 min

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This week, Emily Bazelon, John Dickerson, and David Plotz discuss the problems with issue polling and issues with political journalism; the chaos and conflict of Sam Altman and OpenAI; and the failure of the Oslo Accords and perpetual struggle between Israel and Palestine. Send us your Conundrums: submit them at slate.com/conundrum. And join us in-person or online with our special guest – The Late Show’s Steven Colbert – for Gabfest Live: The Conundrums Edition! December 7 at The 92nd Street Y, New York City. Tickets on sale now!

Here are some notes and references from this week’s show:

Nate Cohn for The New York Times: The Crisis in Issue Polling, and What We’re Doing About It and We Did an Experiment to See How Much Democracy and Abortion Matter to Voters

Claire Cain Miller and Francesca Paris for The New York Times: The Great Disconnect: Why Voters Feel One Way About the Economy but Act Differently

The Image: A Guide to Pseudo-Events in America by Daniel J. Boorstin

What’s the Matter with Kansas?: How Conservatives Won the Heart of America by Thomas Frank

Eli Saslow for The New York Times: A Jan. 6 Defendant Pleads His Case to the Son Who Turned Him In

Brian Beutler for the Off Message newsletter: The 2024 Election Is About Real Things

Charlie Warzel for The Atlantic: The Money Always Wins and Karen Hao and Charlie Warzel: Inside the Chaos at OpenAI

John Dickerson and Jo Ling Kent for CBS News Prime Time: What Sam Altman’s ouster from OpenAI could mean for the tech world

Pranshu Verman, Nitasha Tiku, and Gerrit De Vynck for The Washington Post: Sam Altman reinstated as OpenAI CEO with new board members

Louise Matsakis and Reed Albergotti for Semafor: The AI industry turns against its favorite philosophy

Emily Bazelon for The New York Times Magazine: Was Peace Ever Possible?

Ezra Klein for The New York Times’s The Ezra Klein Show podcast: The Best Primer I’ve Heard on Israeli-Palestinian Peace Efforts

Oslo on HBO

John Dickerson for CBS Mornings: Former President Jimmy Carter: “America will learn from its mistakes”

The Lady Bird Diaries on Hulu

Eleanor Roosevelt in a Coal by Bettman and The George Washington University’s Case Study: Eleanor Roosevelt’s Visit to Coal Mine (1935)

Here are this week’s chatters:

John: Julia Simon for NPR: ‘It feels like I’m not crazy.’ Gardeners aren’t surprised as USDA updates key map and U.S. Department of Agriculture, Agricultural Research Service:

Here are some notes and references from this week’s show:

Nate Cohn for The New York Times: The Crisis in Issue Polling, and What We’re Doing About It and We Did an Experiment to See How Much Democracy and Abortion Matter to Voters

Claire Cain Miller and Francesca Paris for The New York Times: The Great Disconnect: Why Voters Feel One Way About the Economy but Act Differently

The Image: A Guide to Pseudo-Events in America by Daniel J. Boorstin

What’s the Matter with Kansas?: How Conservatives Won the Heart of America by Thomas Frank

Eli Saslow for The New York Times: A Jan. 6 Defendant Pleads His Case to the Son Who Turned Him In

Brian Beutler for the Off Message newsletter: The 2024 Election Is About Real Things

Charlie Warzel for The Atlantic: The Money Always Wins and Karen Hao and Charlie Warzel: Inside the Chaos at OpenAI

John Dickerson and Jo Ling Kent for CBS News Prime Time: What Sam Altman’s ouster from OpenAI could mean for the tech world

Pranshu Verman, Nitasha Tiku, and Gerrit De Vynck for The Washington Post: Sam Altman reinstated as OpenAI CEO with new board members

Louise Matsakis and Reed Albergotti for Semafor: The AI industry turns against its favorite philosophy

Emily Bazelon for The New York Times Magazine: Was Peace Ever Possible?

Ezra Klein for The New York Times’s The Ezra Klein Show podcast: The Best Primer I’ve Heard on Israeli-Palestinian Peace Efforts

Oslo on HBO

John Dickerson for CBS Mornings: Former President Jimmy Carter: “America will learn from its mistakes”

The Lady Bird Diaries on Hulu

Eleanor Roosevelt in a Coal by Bettman and The George Washington University’s Case Study: Eleanor Roosevelt’s Visit to Coal Mine (1935)

Here are this week’s chatters:

John: Julia Simon for NPR: ‘It feels like I’m not crazy.’ Gardeners aren’t surprised as USDA updates key map and U.S. Department of Agriculture, Agricultural Research Service:

Previous Episode

Gabfest Reads: Watership Down Gets the Graphic Novel Treatment

Emily Bazelon talks with cartoonist James Sturm, about his new graphic novel adaptation of Watership Down. They discuss what makes the animal characters so compelling, going tharn[MOU1] , where Watership Down fits in the literary tradition, and so much more.

Tweet us your questions @SlateGabfest or email us at [email protected]. (Messages could be quoted by name unless the writer stipulates otherwise.)

Podcast production by Cheyna Roth.

[MOU1]A word I haven’t thought of in years—stopped me in my tracks!

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Next Episode

Why Does Everyone Hate Bidenomics?

This week, Emily Bazelon, John Dickerson, and David Plotz discuss the good U.S. economy and Americans’ bad feelings about it; the Supreme Court case of SEC v. Jarkesy and its threat to the system of U.S. government; and white evangelicals and Christian nationalists with The Atlantic’s Tim Alberta. Send us your Conundrums: submit them at slate.com/conundrum. And join us in-person or online for Gabfest Live: The Conundrums Edition! December 7 at The 92nd Street Y, New York City. Tickets on sale now!

Here are some notes and references from this week’s show:

Sam Sutton for Politico: Why a ‘soft landing’ may not solve Biden’s polling problem

Lydia DePillis for The New York Times: Even Most Biden Voters Don’t See a Thriving Economy; Paul Krugman: Bidenomics and the Guys in the Bar; Jim Tankersley: ‘Morning in America’ Eludes Biden, Despite Economic Gains; and Bryce Covert: Don’t Let Inflation Bury the Memory of a Government Triumph

Dylan Matthews for Vox: Why the news is so negative – and what we can do about it

David Winston for Roll Call: Why Voters Are Still Wary 10 Years After the Economic Collapse

Robert Barnes for The Washington Post: Supreme Court conservatives seem dubious about SEC’s in-house tribunals

Ronald Mann for SCOTUSblog: Supreme Court to consider multi-pronged constitutional attack on SEC

Noah Rosenblum for The Atlantic: The Case That Could Destroy the Government

Ian Millhiser for Vox: A Supreme Court case about stocks could help make Trump’s authoritarian dreams reality

Public Citizens: The Attack on Big Government and the Remaking of American Liberalism by Paul Sabin

Tim Alberta for The Atlantic: My Father, My Faith, and Donald Trump and How Politics Poisoned The Evangelical Church

The Kingdom, the Power, and the Glory: American Evangelicals in an Age of Extremism by Tim Alberta