Newsquawk Rundown, Daily Podcast

• A mostly firmer start to the session, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.5%, with sentiment on a better footing than APAC counterparts as earnings take the spotlight ahead of this week's risk events.
• Stateside, a modest positive bias remains in play into JOLTS and then earnings which include MSFT, AMD, MRK, PFE & PG.
• DXY largely contained vs. peers, JPY on the backfoot while NZD outperforms. EUR marginally firmer after a data deluge
• Fixed benchmarks flat/softer, initial Spanish inflation/German GDP induced gains gave way to a slight bearish bias after hawkish regional CPI and robust EZ GDP
• Crude benchmarks are flat/choppy, NatGas slightly firmer while metals are mixed with XAU within Monday's range
• Looking ahead, highlights include US JOLTS. Earnings from Merck, Paypal, Pfizer, Procter & Gamble, AMD, Microsoft, Mondelez & Starbucks.
• Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.

EUROPEAN TRADE

EQUITIES

• A mostly firmer start to the session, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.5%, with sentiment on a better footing than APAC counterparts as earnings take the spotlight ahead of this week's risk events.
• Sectors have no overarching theme/bias with Autos strong and rebounding from recent pressure, Tech supported by ASML while Basic Resources have been dented by benchmark action.
• Breakdown dictated by earnings/data; DAX 40 +0.4% firmer but stalling after a soft Flash German GDP print and amid growing pressure in Heidelberg Materials post-earnings. FTSE 100 lags given pressure in mining and most banking names, though BP +2.2% and Standard Chartered +5.5% are strong post-earnings while Diageo -9.0% slips after warning of persisting challenges.
• Stateside, a modest positive bias remains in play into JOLTS and then earnings; ES +0.2% & NQ +0.2%. Stateside earnings docket has MSFT, AMD, MRK, PFE & PG.
• Click for the sessions European pre-market equity newsflow
• Click for the additional news
• Click for a detailed summary

FX

• DXY is largely contained vs. peers with specifics light into the week’s risk events; DXY is currently within yesterday's 104.13-75 range. Upside sees the 50DMA @ 104.88 and 100DMA @ 104.89. Downside sees 10 and 200DMA both @ 104.32.
• EUR marginally firmer after a slew of data prints which have been headlined by slightly hawkish German regional CPI and a better-than-expected GDP print for the bloc. EUR/USD at the top-end of 1.0815-34 parameters.
• GBP is essentially unchanged with little follow-through from Reeves’ statement, focus remains firmly on Thursday’s BoE. Cable is currently well within yesterday's 1.2807-1.2888 range.
• JPY on the backfoot vs. USD, though has managed to pull away marginally from the USD/JPY 155.21 high for the session. Attention firmly on Wednesday’s BoJ which could potentially be hawkish and is then followed by the FOMC’s gathering.
• NZD outperforms with nothing by way of fresh fundamental catalyst, NZD/USD is in the process of snapping an eight session losing streak; AUD essentially unchanged vs. USD.
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FIXED INCOME

• A relatively contained start before a packed morning of data points. EGBs are under modest pressure after a slightly hawkish set of German regional CPI numbers and a stronger-than-expected EZ Flash Prelim. GDP outing.
• As such, Bunds at the low-end of a 133.09-43 range, the high printed early doors on a cooler Spanish Flash CPI release; Monday’s base at 132.72.
• Gilts steady at the low-end of yesterday’s 98.34-98.93 paramete...

• APAC stocks gained heading into month-end as participants digested a slew of data releases and the BoJ policy decision.
• BoJ hiked rates by 15bps and is to taper monthly bond purchases by JPY 400bln per quarter.
• Chinese manufacturing PMI remained in contractionary territory, core Australian CPI measures came in below expectations.
• European equity futures indicate a mildly higher open with Euro Stoxx 50 future up 0.1% after the cash market finished with gains of 0.5% on Tuesday.
• AUD the laggard post-CPI data and JPY flat vs. the USD after some volatile price action. DXY is a touch softer.
• Looking ahead, highlights include German Trade & Unemployment Rate, French CPI, EZ Flash HICP, US ADP & Chicago PMI, FOMC & BCB Policy Announcements, Fed Chair Powell's Press Conference, Supply from Germany & US Quarterly Refunding Announcement.
• Earnings from HSBC, Taylor Wimpey, GSK, Lufthansa, Fresenius SE, Siemens Healthineers, Adidas, Schneider Electric, Danone, Safran, Telefonica, BBVA, Telecom Italia, ADP, Boeing, Mastercard, ARM, Meta, Qualcomm & T-Mobile US.

US TRADE

EQUITIES

• US stocks finished mixed with price action choppy heading into the upcoming risk events and as selling pressures emerged after JOLTS came in above expectations with the prior revised higher and Consumer Confidence also beat expectations, while markets also reflected on the heightened geopolitical tensions after Israel retaliated to the Golan Heights strike in which it targeted a top Hezbollah commander in a Beirut suburb. As such, the major indices were varied and the Nasdaq underperformed as the tech sector was pressured heading into more of the Magnificent Seven earnings.
• SPX -0.50% at 5,436, NDX -1.40% at 18,796, DJIA +0.50% at 40,743, RUT +0.40% 2,243.
• Click here for a detailed summary.

NOTABLE HEADLINES

• US VP Harris is expected to announce her VP pick as soon as Monday, according to sources cited by Reuters. It was also reported that Harris will hold her first rally with her running mate next Tuesday in Philadelphia, according to Politico.
• US VP Harris wiped out Republican Presidential Candidate Trump's swing-state lead in the latest election poll, according to Bloomberg. Furthermore, the poll showed Harris gained ground versus Trump in each of the seven swing states since Biden dropped out of the race.
• Microsoft Corp (MSFT) Q4 2024 (USD): EPS 2.95 (exp. 2.93), Revenue 64.73bln (exp. 64.39bln), Intelligent Cloud rev. 28.52bln (exp. 28.72bln). Co. shares were lower by 2.7% after-hours
• Advanced Micro Devices Inc (AMD) Q2 2024 (USD): Adj. EPS 0.69 (exp. 0.68), Revenue 5.84bln (exp. 5.72bln). Co. shares were higher by +7.6% after-hours

APAC TRADE

BOJ

• BoJ raised its short-term interest rate by 15bps to 0.25% and announced a change in bond purchases in which it will no longer provide a range but will instead specify amounts, while the BoJ is to reduce scheduled monthly bond buying by around JPY 400bln each quarter and with bond purchases to be JPY 3tln a month as of Q1 2026. BoJ said the decision on rates was made by a 7-2 vote with Nakamura and Noguchi the dissenters, while the decision on bond buying made unanimously. Furthermore, it stated that it may modify the bond-taper plan upon mid-term view as appropriate, if deemed necessary for functioning of JGB market, and at the June 2025 meeting, the BoJ will discuss the guideline for its JGB buying from April 2026 and announce results.

EQUITIES

• APAC stocks gained heading into month-end as participants digested a slew of data releases and the BoJ policy decision.
• ASX 200 was led by strength in energy and tech, while domestic yields were pressured after mostly softer inflation data.
• Nikkei 225 declined heading into the BoJ policy decision after rate hike bets were boosted following several local press reports that the central bank is to consider a 15bps rate increase and although the hike materialised, the Bank's taper plan was less aggressive than many had called for.
• Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. gained as participants digested the latest Chinese PMI data in which headline Manufacturing PMI topped forecasts despite remaining in contraction territory, while Non-Manufacturing PMI matched estimat...

• APAC stocks were mixed amid the holiday-thinned conditions and as participants braced for this week's central bank announcements including from the FOMC, BoE and BoJ.
• Chinese house prices further deteriorated, while the latest Chinese Industrial Production and Retail Sales also disappointed.
• After last week's late dovish Fed repricing, odds of a 50bps cut sit at 59% vs. 41% chance of a 25bps reduction.
• European equity futures are indicative of a positive cash open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future +0.2% after the cash market closed higher by 0.6% on Friday.
• DXY is on the backfoot and back below the 101 mark, EUR/USD sits around the 1.11 level, JPY is the biggest gainer vs. the USD.
• Looking ahead, highlights include EZ Labour Costs/Wages, NY Fed Manufacturing, Canadian Manufacturing Sales, ECB Survey of Monetary Analysts, Comments from ECB’s de Guindos & Lane.

US TRADE

EQUITIES

• US stocks were bid throughout Friday's session with outperformance in the small caps Russell 2k and all sectors closed in the green with Utilities, Communication and Materials the best performers although Health Care, Real Estate and Financials lagged, while T-Notes bull steepened as traders increased bets for a 50bp rate cut at the upcoming Fed meeting with money markets pricing the decision at a near coin toss.
• SPX +0.54% at 5,626, NDX +0.47% at 19,515, DJIA +0.72% at 41,394, RUT +2.49% at 2,182.
• Click here for a detailed summary.

NOTABLE HEADLINES

• Multiple shots were fired near former President Trump’s golf course in West Palm Beach and the Secret Service reportedly opened fire at a suspected person with a weapon while Trump was golfing, according to law enforcement sources cited by AP. Trump’s campaign said the former President is safe following a shooting in his vicinity, while Trump said he will never give up and nothing will stop him. Furthermore, the FBI said it is investigating what appears to be an assassination attempt and a Palm Beach law enforcement official said the suspect was arrested and that they found an AK-47 type weapon.
• Goldman Sachs still sees 25bps of Fed easing this week and for each remaining meeting this year, while JPMorgan reiterated its call for a 50bp Fed rate cut in September.
• WSJ opinion piece by Greg Ip noted that the Fed's rate decision this week looks more difficult than it should be and the real question isn’t how much to cut, but where rates ought to be, while it added that the answer is much lower which argues for a half-point cut.

APAC TRADE

EQUITIES

• APAC stocks were mixed amid the holiday-thinned conditions with many key markets in the region closed and as participants braced for this week's central bank announcements including from the FOMC, BoE and BoJ.
• ASX 200 mildly gained as real estate and financials led the advances across most sectors aside from defensives.
• Hang Seng was dragged lower amid the absence of mainland participants and with underperformance seen in property developers after Chinese house prices further deteriorated, while the latest Chinese Industrial Production and Retail Sales also disappointed.
• US equity futures (ES +0.1%) took a breather after rallying on Friday as markets priced increased odds for an incoming 50bps Fed rate cut.
• European equity futures are indicative of a positive cash open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future +0.2% after the cash market closed higher by 0.6% on Friday.

FX

• DXY dipped below 101.00 ahead of the FOMC and as participants second-guessed the magnitude of a looming Fed rate cut.
• EUR/USD edged mild gains and eventually retested the 1.1100 level which has provided some resistance.
• GBP/USD was slightly firmer although further upside was limited with a BoE meeting also scheduled later this week.
• USD/JPY remained subdued after last week's retreat and with Japanese participants away for Respect for the Aged Day.
• Antipodeans were initially rangebound following the disappointing data releases from China, but later took advantage of the softer buck.
• Bank of Canada Governor Macklem opened the door to increasing the pace of rate cuts as growth fears mount, according...

• Equities are in the green, except for the AEX, which is weighed on by poor ASML results; Luxury bellwether LVMH gains post-earnings
• Dollar is lower though still above 106.00, Antipodeans outperform and GBP benefits post-CPI
• USTs incrementally firmer, Gilts gapped lower following hotter-than-expected CPI though have pared to near unchanged
• Crude is pressured as markets await geopols updates, XAU is firmer, benefiting from recent Dollar weakness
• Looking ahead, Fed Beige Book, Comments from ECB’s Lagarde & Schnabel, BoE’s Bailey, Greene & Haskel, Fed’s Bowman & Mester. Earnings from Citizens Financials & Abbott.

EUROPEAN TRADE

EQUITIES

• European bourses, Stoxx600 (+0.4%) are mostly firmer, with the exception of the AEX (-0.2%), hampered by poor ASML (-3.5%) results. Luxury name LVMH (+2.5%) leads the CAC 40 (+1%) higher.
• Sectors hold a positive tilt; Basic Resources tops the pile, benefiting from broader strength in underlying metals prices, namely iron. Consumer Products is lifted by Luxury bellwether LVMH, as well as post-earnings strength in Adidas (+8.1%). Tech is found at the foot of the pile after the poor ASML metrics.
• US Equity Futures (ES +0.3%, NQ +0.3%, RTY +0.3%) are modestly firmer and are trading towards session highs. UAL (+4.9%) benefits post-earnings, after reporting solid metrics and noting that demand remained strong.
• Click here and here for the sessions European pre-market equity newsflow, including earnings from: LVMH, ASML & Adidas.
• Click here for more details.

FX

• USD is losing ground vs. peers but holding above the 106 mark after printing a 106.51 high yesterday; the "hawkish comments" from Chair Powell on Tuesday were unable to provide further sustained support.
• EUR is enjoying some reprieve vs. the USD after finding a base just above the 1.06 mark yesterday. No revisions to EZ CPI will have come as a relief but talk from FX strategists continues to favour a potential approach to 1.05.
• GBP is firmer vs. both the USD and EUR post-UK inflation metrics which came in slightly firmer-than-expected. As such, BoE rate cut bets have been scaled back with the first fully-priced cut pushed back to Nov. from Sept. Cable has eclipsed yesterday's 1.2472 peak with attention now on a potential test of 1.25.
• JPY is firmer vs. the USD but to a lesser extent than peers. That will be of little consolation to JPY bulls given the recent surge in the pair. Yesterday was defined by a sharp sell-off in the European afternoon; suspected by some to be intervention.
• Antipodeans are both top of the leaderboard vs. the USD. NZD is digesting the latest NZ inflation metrics. Headline prints were in-line but some stickiness was seen in underlying data.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1025 vs exp. 7.2404 (prev. 7.1028)
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FIXED INCOME

• USTs are firmer by a handful of ticks as the benchmark lifts slightly from Tuesday's Fed-induced hawkish action. Currently at a high of 107-25+ from Tuesday's 107-13+ contract low which was spurred by Fed speak.
• Bund price action is directionally in-fitting with USTs and were unreactive to the unrevised Final HICP metrics; impetus today will be from several ECB speakers including Schnabel (Hawk). Bunds at the mid-point of 130.99-131.36 parameters with the contract low just below at 130.97.
• Gilts gapped lower by around 11 ticks before slipping further to a 96.01 trough and new contract low below Tuesday's 96.03 base after hotter-than-expected March CPI numbers. Gilts have since pared and are modestly firmer on the...