Newsquawk Rundown, Daily Podcast
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US Market Open: Equities firmer, Bonds bullish post-UK CPI which led the Pound lower; Fed, ECB and BoE speak due
Newsquawk Rundown, Daily Podcast
02/14/24 • 3 min
- European bourses are firmer, with outperformance in the FTSE 100 after softer-than-expected UK CPI; US futures are entirely in the green, with the RTY leading
- Dollar is around flat and just beneath 105.00, GBP underperforming post-CPI and Yen still holds above 150.00
- Bonds boosted in tandem with Gilt price action, which gapped up post-inflation data
- Crude is incrementally firmer, spot gold trades sideways and base metals mixed awaiting impetus from geopols and central banks speak
- Looking ahead, US PPI Seasonal Factor Revisions, Japanese GDP, Comments from ECB’s Cipollone, BoE's Bailey hearing, Fed’s Goolsbee, Barr & BoC’s Mendes, Earnings from Cisco & Occidental Petroleum Corp.
EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
- European bourses, Stoxx600 (+0.3%) began the session on a mixed footing and trade was generally tentative, before eventually moving into the green.
- And love is in the air for the FTSE 100 (+0.8%), as weakness in the Pound (post-CPI) lifts the index off its feet.
- European sectors hold a mostly positive bias, with Media taking the spotlight, helped by significant post-earning strength in ProsibenSat (+9.2%). Basic Resources is hampered by broader losses in underlying base metal prices.
- US equity futures (ES +0.4%, NQ +0.6%, RTY +0.9%) are firmer across the board and attempting to pare back some of the prior day’s hefty losses, sparked by the hotter-than-expected CPI. The RTY outperforms after significant losses yesterday and as Bitcoin continues to advance past USD 50k.
- Click here and here for the sessions European pre-market equity newsflow.
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FX
- DXY is overall steady but the USD is showing varying performance vs. peers. DXY has eclipsed yesterday's peak of 104.96 but is yet to print on a 105.00 handle. Above which, there is clean air until 105.73 which was the November 14th peak.
- EUR printed a fresh YTD trough as the post-US CPI pressure on the pair continued. 1.0696 is the low print thus far with downside targets including the 14th November low at 1.0692.
- GBP is bottom of the pile across the major following softer-than-expected UK inflation metrics which have put an August cut back on the table. Cable fell to a trough of 1.2544 after taking out yesterday's low of 1.2573 and the 200DMA at 1.2563.
- JPY is attempting to claw back some lost ground vs. the USD after printing a 2024 high at 150.88 yesterday; remarks from MOF & others in focus, but USD/JPY remains well above 150.00.
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FIXED INCOME
- Gilts are boosted on the cooler-than-expected January CPI, though the uptick in All Services (albeit, shy of BoE estimates) means the Table Mountain approach is unlikely to be swayed just yet; Gilts gapped higher before printing a peak at 97.83, where it then traded within a tight range ahead of supply.
- USTs are in-fitting with the above and within Tuesday's 101-29 to 102-11 extremes going into Fed speak & US PPI Seasonal Revisions. Any remarks from Fed's Barr or Goolsbee around the CPI print will be sought given we are yet to hear from a FOMC member on it.
- Bunds are lifted as the region reacted to cooler than expected UK CPI, lifting Bunds from 133.00 to around 133.25. Thereafter, EGBs have continued to tick up gradually with a 133.54 peak printing alongside an escalation in geopols & remarks from ECB officials (who overall added little).
- Germany sells EUR 0.81bln vs exp. EUR 1.0bln 1.80% 2053 Bund and EUR 0.85bln vs exp. EUR 1.0bln 2.50% 2054.
- Click
US Market Open: Equities mixed, Bonds bid on dovish ECB speak & Crude gains amid geopolitical tensions
Newsquawk Rundown, Daily Podcast
01/29/24 • 4 min
- European bourses are trading on a mixed footing and lack clear direction; US equity futures follow suit ahead of a busy week of risk events
- Dollar continues to firm, EUR a touch softer and Antipodeans bid despite a flimsy risk tone
- Bonds are bid amid dovish ECB speak as attention turns to US Treasury Financing Estimates
- Crude is modestly firmer as geopols remain in focus; US said three troops were killed by an Iran-linked drone attack near the Syrian border
- Looking ahead, US Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index, Treasury Financing Estimates, Earnings from Western Digital
EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
- European bourses are on a mixed footing, having initially opened around the unchanged mark; the DAX 40 (-0.5%) underperforms, hampered by Bayer (-4.3%).
- European sectors hold a negative tilt, though with the overall breadth of the market narrow; Energy outperforms as crude prices remain propped up attributed to heightened geopolitical tensions. Autos underperforms, dragged down by losses in Volvo Cars (-3.8%).
- US equity futures (ES -0.1%, NQ +0.1%, RTY -0.1%) are on a mixed footing, though overall lacking any real direction as markets await this week’s key events including earnings from four out of the five “Magnificent 7”, Fed Policy Announcement, NFP & Quarterly Refunding highlight the week.
- Click here and here for the sessions European pre-market equity newsflow, including earnings from Ryanair, Philips, Wacker Chemie & more.
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FX
- DXY continues to edge higher making session highs at 103.66, though with fresh drivers lacking and contained in Friday's range of 103.14-72.; the Dollar has largely traded on a 103 handle since 17th Jan.
- EUR nudged lower in recent trade following dovish Centeno comments and towards the bottom end of Friday's range of 1.0813-86; markets await EZ CPI and GDP metrics this week.
- JPY a touch firmer vs. USD with the pair having oscillated around 148 in recent trading sessions. FOMC could become the next inflection point for the pair as markets consider Fed vs. BoJ policy paths.
- Antipodeans are both firmer vs. the USD despite the flimsy risk tone. AUD/USD has failed to sustain a footing above the 0.66 mark with 0.6620 the best the pair could muster last week.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1097 vs exp. 7.1785 (prev. 7.1074).
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FIXED INCOME
- USTs are firmer and hit a 111-13+ high on dovish Centeno comments, albeit well within last week's 111-13 to 111-19+ range. Fed is the week's highlight, WSJ's Timiraos says officials likely to no longer signal rates more likely to rise than fall.
- Bund price action has been dictated by ECB speak; ECB's Knot remarks on wages capped initial upside, thereafter EGBs extended on a dovish Centeno. Subsequently, ECB's Kazimir was a little less dovish which led to a marginal and short-lived moved to the downside.
- Gilts are bid printing a 98.95 session high on ECB's Centeno and in tandem with EGBs; focus on the BoE on Thursday with the docket thin before that.
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COMMODITIES
- Crude benchmarks began modestly firmer with geopolitics in focus. Specifically, the US said three troops were killed by an Iran-linked drone attack near the Syrian border; currently Brent futures reside off bests and just shy of USD 83/bbl.
- Spot gold is bid given the heightened geopolitical risk tone; XAU ...
US Market Open: US equity futures lower, DXY flat and Bunds firmer post-EZ HICP; US ADP and OPEC+ JMMC due
Newsquawk Rundown, Daily Podcast
04/03/24 • 2 min
- European bourses are modestly firmer, US equity futures are in the red though with trade contained
- Dollar is flat and G10 peers are incrementally softer
- USTs are incrementally softer whilst Bunds are firmer after dovish-tilting speak from ultra-hawk Holzmann coupled with softer EZ-HICP metrics
- Crude is incrementally firmer but within recent levels, XAU is off best
- Looking ahead, US ADP, ISM Services, Australian PMI (F), OPEC+ JMMC, Comments from Fed’s Powell, Bowman, Goolsbee, Barr & Kugler.
EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
- European bourses, Stoxx600 (+0.2%), were mostly but modestly firmer at the open, and trade remained directionless up until the EZ CPI; following the print, stocks trudged higher.
- European sectors hold a negative tilt, though with no overarching theme or bias. Banks and Tech take the top spots, whilst Real Estate continues to be hampered by the yield environment.
- US Equity Futures (ES -0.2%, NQ -0.2%, RTY -0.3%) are all marginally lower continuing the downside seen in the prior session. Intel (-4.6%) suffers pre-market after reporting its Foundry had an op. loss for 2023 at USD 7bln.
- Click here and here for the sessions European pre-market equity newsflow, including earnings.
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FX
- USD on net steady vs. peers after failing to hold above the 105 mark, within a tight 104.84-70 range; topped out at 105.10 yesterday.
- EUR is contained vs. the USD as post-CPI downside proved to be fleeting. The data may accelerate calls for a move next week but June still firmly the base case. EUR/USD holding above yesterday's 1.0724 low.
- USD/JPY remains in consolidation mode around recent highs as recent Fed repricing provides support. Upside targets include the YTD high at 151.97 and the psych 152 mark, above which, there is clean air.
- Antipodeans are both a touch softer vs. the USD after yesterday's session of gains. AUD able to hold onto a 0.65 handle and above yesterday's 0.6482 low.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.0949 vs exp. 7.2282 (prev. 7.0957).
- Chile Central Bank cut its benchmark interest rate by 75bps to 6.50%, as expected, with the decision unanimous. Chile Central Bank said the board will continue cutting rates, while the size and timing of rates will consider the trajectory of inflation and the macroeconomic scenario.
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FIXED INCOME
- USTs were contained during APAC trade as participants took a slight breather from Tuesday's pronounced bear-steepening, though overnight Fed speak was on the hawkish side of things. Modest pressure emerged in the European morning, USTs down to a 109-18 base before Tuesday's 109-14+ trough.
- Bunds were initially contained, in-fitting with USTs, before experiencing modest upside on Holzmann's remarks which had an uncharacteristic dovish-tilt. A dovish but fleeting reaction was seen following the cooler than expected EZ HICP print. Currently near session peaks around 132.50.
- BTPs were dented after Economy Minister Giorgetti announced that the EU is likely to begin deficit infringement procedures against the nation and others, sending BTPs down from 117.90 to 117.50 where they currently reside.
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COMMODITIES
- Horizontal trade in the crude complex overnight and in early European hours ahead of the OPEC+ JMMC at 12:00BST, although no recommendations are expected. Brent holds around USD 88.20/bbl.
- Mixed trade for precious metals with some potential profit-taking (ahead of US ADP and a slew of Fed speakers) in the yellow metal after hitting a fresh ATH this morning at USD 2,...
US Market Open: Equities in the red amid post-earning losses in LVMH, Tesla and Alphabet, Bunds bid after dire German/EZ PMIs
Newsquawk Rundown, Daily Podcast
07/24/24 • 4 min
- Equities are entirely in the red, hampered by significant post-earning weakness in key companies; LVMH -3.5%, Google -3.2%, Tesla -7.4%
- Dollar is flat, safe haven pairs outperform, USD/JPY around 154.50, Antipodeans lag
- USTs are flat, Bunds initially propped up on dire German/EZ PMI releases but are now off best levels
- Crude gains, XAU is incrementally firmer and base metals are mixed
- Looking ahead, US Flash PMIs, US Advance Goods Trade Balance, BoC Policy Announcement & MPR, Comments from ECB’s de Guindos & Lane, Fed’s Bowman, BoC's Macklem & Rogers Supply from the US, Earnings from AT&T, CME, Thermo Fisher, Ford, IBM, Newmont, ServiceNow & General Dynamics
EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
- European bourses, Stoxx 600 (-0.9%) began the session on a weaker footing, and sentiment has continued to dwindle as the morning progressed; as it stands indices resides at lows.
- Today’s European PMI releases have been poor, with Germany’s composite surprisingly falling into contractionary territory, whilst the EZ managed to stay in expansionary territory and noted that its GDP Nowcast still pointed towards growth in Q3.
- European sectors hold a strong negative bias, with only Travel & Leisure remaining afloat, which is assisted by post-earning gains in easyJet (+5.7%). Consumer Products is the clear underperformer, after LVMH (-4.7%) results, which has also weighed on peers. Banks are also towards the foot of the pile, given the significant losses in Deutsche Bank (-6.7%).
- Click for the sessions European pre-market equity newsflow
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FX
- DXY is steady around the 104.50 mark with the USD showing mixed performance vs. peers. The USD is softer against havens such as CHF and JPY whilst faring better against risk-sensitive currencies. 104.55 marks today's peak for the DXY with not much in the way of resistance until the 100DMA at 104.82.
- EUR is hampered by a soft set of PMI metrics with the German report a notable lowlight for the region; the release suggests a 0.4% Q/Q contraction for German GDP in Q3. As such, EUR/USD's journey to the low 1.08's has continued, currently around 1.0830.
- GBP is a touch softer vs. the USD with Cable extending its move below the 1.29 mark. GBP/USD saw some slight reprieve from mixed PMI metrics with the low for the pair currently at 1.2878.
- JPY is continuing to edge out gains vs. the USD. Price action has followed the recent broader trend but is also likely being aided by the current risk environment. USD/JPY has taken out support at the 155 level, which some desks had seen as a key test for the pair,slipping to a 154.31 base on a recent Reuters source piece.
- Antipodeans are both the G10 underperformers. AUD is extending its losing streak vs. the USD to an 8th consecutive session with the pair now below the 0.66 level for the first time since 17th June.
- CAD is steady vs. the USD in the run up to today's BoC policy announcement. Consensus is for a cut, however, analysts are not unanimous in this view and therefore there could be some choppiness on the decision itself.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1358 exp. 7.2795 (prev. 7.1334).
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FIXED INCOME
- Bunds are firmer after a dismal German PMI series and, by extension, a poor EZ report. The French release earlier sparked some modest pressure in Bunds, but could ultimately be caveated by the impending Olympics. Bunds to a 132.66 new WTD peak but stalling before last week’s 132.77 best. Bunds were heading lower into the German auction, ...
Europe Market Open: Negative bias in APAC after the choppy performance stateside; S&P 500 and Nasdaq notched fresh record closes
Newsquawk Rundown, Daily Podcast
06/11/24 • 4 min
- APAC stocks traded with a negative bias after the choppy performance stateside; S&P 500 and Nasdaq notched fresh record closes.
- Apple closed down 1.9% after its WWDC event failed to ignite enthusiasm; announced an integration of ChatGPT.
- European equity futures indicate a mildly positive open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.2% after the cash market closed down 0.7% on Monday.
- DXY is holding above the 105 mark, with FX markets broadly contained, EUR/USD remains on a 1.07 handle.
- Looking ahead, highlights include UK Employment Data, US NFIB Business Optimism Index, EIA STEO & OPEC MOMR, Comments from ECB’s Lane & Elderson, Supply from Netherlands & US, Earnings from Oracle.
US TRADE
EQUITIES
- US stocks eked marginal gains after having shrugged off the downbeat mood seen in Europe following the EU Parliamentary elections over the weekend which saw far-right parties make notable gains and spurred French President Macron to call for a snap election. Nonetheless, US equities clawed back earlier losses once cash trade got underway, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 printed fresh record closes albeit with gains capped in quiet trade and as participants await upcoming risk events.
- SPX +0.26% at 5,361, NDX +0.39% at 19,075, DJI +0.18% at 38,868, RUT +0.25% at 2,032.
- Click here for a detailed summary.
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- Apple (AAPL) announced at the WWDC its Vision OS2 and expanded Apple Vision Pro to eight new countries, while it also announced Apple Tap to Pay and confirmed a deal with OpenAI to integrate ChatGPT for iPhones. iPads and Macs.
APAC TRADE
EQUITIES
- APAC stocks traded with a negative bias after the choppy performance stateside where the S&P 500 and Nasdaq notched fresh record closes but the gains were capped ahead of the mid-week key events.
- ASX 200 declined amid broad weakness across sectors and as miners led the descent.
- Nikkei 225 bucked the trend as it benefitted from recent currency weakness.
- Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. were pressured amid ongoing property sector concerns after a Hong Kong court issued a wind-up order to Chinese property developer Dexin China.
- US equity futures were lacklustre amid the risk aversion in Asia and as key risk events loom.
- European equity futures indicate a mildly positive open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.2% after the cash market closed down 0.7% on Monday.
FX
- DXY traded steadily overnight slightly above the 105.00 level amid a lack of fresh drivers and as participants await Wednesday's US CPI release, the FOMC rate decision and the latest SEPs.
- EUR/USD remained contained after the recent politically triggered underperformance and with a few ECB speakers scheduled later today.
- GBP/USD eked slight gains after recovering from a brief dip beneath the 1.2700 handle, while the focus for GBP turns to the looming UK Employment Change and Average Earnings data.
- USD/JPY mildly extended above 157.00 amid light catalysts and the absence of jawboning.
- Antipodeans were lacklustre with headwinds from the mostly negative risk tone and following weaker NAB Business Surveys from Australia which showed business confidence slipped into negative territory.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1135 vs exp. 7.2724 (prev. 7.1106).
FIXED INCOME
- 10-year UST futures attempted to nurse some of its post-NFP losses after finding support around the 109.00 level but with the recovery limited ahead of a 10-year auction and Wednesday's key risk events.
- Bund futures were off the prior day's lows although remained sub-130.00 as attention turned to upcoming ECB speakers, while Lagarde recently noted they can keep rates on hold for as long as needed.
- 10-year JGB futures partially recovered some of the recent lost ground heading into an enhanced liquidity auction for long to super-long JGBs which saw a muted reaction despite attracting firmer interest.
COMMODITIES
- Crude futures were little changed overnight and held on to most of the prior day's spoils after rallying on upcoming summer fuel demand and lingering geopolitical risks.
- European officials are repor...
US Market Open: European assets hit by EU election results, USD continues post-NFP gains
Newsquawk Rundown, Daily Podcast
06/10/24 • 5 min
- European bourses are entirely in the red, with sentiment hit amid political uncertainty in Europe whereby the centre-right strengthened its majority although the far-right made gains; US equity futures are marginally softer, with the RTY underperforming
- Dollar is firmer in a continuation of post-NFP strength, EUR is hampered by political uncertainty
- USTs are flat and resilient to the downbeat mood in European peers; OATs underperform after French President Macron calls for a snap election
- Crude is softer after spending much of the European morning in the green, XAU is flat and base metals gain
- Looking ahead, US Employment Trends, Chinese Money Supply, Supply from the US
EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
- European bourses, Stoxx 600** (-1.2%), sank at the open and resides at lows amid the political uncertainty in Europe whereby the centre-right strengthened its majority although the far-right made gains - this prompted French President Macron to announce a snap election, which has resulted in the CAC 40 (-1.8%) underperforming.
- European sectors are entirely in the red. Construction & Materials are found at the bottom of the pile, alongside Autos and Banks, largely dragged down by significant losses in French stocks.
- US equity futures (ES -0.3%, NQ -0.3%, RTY -0.8%) are entirely in the red, in tandem with broader sentiment in Europe, albeit to a lesser magnitude; the RTY underperforms, continuing the post-NFP downside seen on Friday.
- Click here for the sessions European pre-market equity newsflow and here for additional news.
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FX
- USD is extending on Friday's post-NFP gains with a softer EUR helping boost DXY to a 105.30 high (highest since May 14th). Macro focus for the US this week falls on CPI and FOMC both due on Wednesday.
- EUR is the standout laggard across the majors following the EU parliamentary elections which have stoked uncertainty across the bloc, particularly in France. EUR/USD gapped lower and slipped beneath its 100 and 200DMAs with the current low at 1.0748. In terms of notable OpEx, there are also some large near-the-money clips due to roll-off.
- GBP is softer vs the Dollar though is holding up better than peers due to cross-related selling in EUR/GBP which sits at its lowest level since August'22 (0.8454 is the current session low). Cable currently holding just above 1.27.
- JPY is losing ground to the broadly firmer USD in what is a big week for the pair with rate decisions from the FOMC and BoJ. In recent trade, the USD/JPY has dipped below 157.00, and currently holds around 156.80.
- Antipodeans are both holding up relatively well vs. the USD despite the flimsy risk sentiment in the market. Performance is likely due to the particularly bruising session on Friday post-NFP which sent AUD/USD down as low as 0.6577 vs. an opening price of 0.6664.
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FIXED INCOME
- USTs are currently immune to the downbeat mood in European fixed income markets; drivers this week for US paper include US CPI, FOMC alongside dot plots and a heavy supply slate. Sept'24 UST currently holding above the 109 mark, with the current low at 109.02.
- European bonds are pressured given the political events over the weekend, which saw the centre-right hold at an EU level, and a strong performance for the far-right. As it stands, Bunds have dipped below 130.00 and looking to test the trough from 3rd June at 129.83; OATs underperform, after French President Macron dissolved the French parliament and announced a snap election.
US Market Open: Modest positive bias into US data and numerous large-cap earnings
Newsquawk Rundown, Daily Podcast
07/30/24 • 4 min
- A mostly firmer start to the session, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.5%, with sentiment on a better footing than APAC counterparts as earnings take the spotlight ahead of this week's risk events.
- Stateside, a modest positive bias remains in play into JOLTS and then earnings which include MSFT, AMD, MRK, PFE & PG.
- DXY largely contained vs. peers, JPY on the backfoot while NZD outperforms. EUR marginally firmer after a data deluge
- Fixed benchmarks flat/softer, initial Spanish inflation/German GDP induced gains gave way to a slight bearish bias after hawkish regional CPI and robust EZ GDP
- Crude benchmarks are flat/choppy, NatGas slightly firmer while metals are mixed with XAU within Monday's range
- Looking ahead, highlights include US JOLTS. Earnings from Merck, Paypal, Pfizer, Procter & Gamble, AMD, Microsoft, Mondelez & Starbucks.
- Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.
EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
- A mostly firmer start to the session, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.5%, with sentiment on a better footing than APAC counterparts as earnings take the spotlight ahead of this week's risk events.
- Sectors have no overarching theme/bias with Autos strong and rebounding from recent pressure, Tech supported by ASML while Basic Resources have been dented by benchmark action.
- Breakdown dictated by earnings/data; DAX 40 +0.4% firmer but stalling after a soft Flash German GDP print and amid growing pressure in Heidelberg Materials post-earnings. FTSE 100 lags given pressure in mining and most banking names, though BP +2.2% and Standard Chartered +5.5% are strong post-earnings while Diageo -9.0% slips after warning of persisting challenges.
- Stateside, a modest positive bias remains in play into JOLTS and then earnings; ES +0.2% & NQ +0.2%. Stateside earnings docket has MSFT, AMD, MRK, PFE & PG.
- Click for the sessions European pre-market equity newsflow
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FX
- DXY is largely contained vs. peers with specifics light into the week’s risk events; DXY is currently within yesterday's 104.13-75 range. Upside sees the 50DMA @ 104.88 and 100DMA @ 104.89. Downside sees 10 and 200DMA both @ 104.32.
- EUR marginally firmer after a slew of data prints which have been headlined by slightly hawkish German regional CPI and a better-than-expected GDP print for the bloc. EUR/USD at the top-end of 1.0815-34 parameters.
- GBP is essentially unchanged with little follow-through from Reeves’ statement, focus remains firmly on Thursday’s BoE. Cable is currently well within yesterday's 1.2807-1.2888 range.
- JPY on the backfoot vs. USD, though has managed to pull away marginally from the USD/JPY 155.21 high for the session. Attention firmly on Wednesday’s BoJ which could potentially be hawkish and is then followed by the FOMC’s gathering.
- NZD outperforms with nothing by way of fresh fundamental catalyst, NZD/USD is in the process of snapping an eight session losing streak; AUD essentially unchanged vs. USD.
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FIXED INCOME
- A relatively contained start before a packed morning of data points. EGBs are under modest pressure after a slightly hawkish set of German regional CPI numbers and a stronger-than-expected EZ Flash Prelim. GDP outing.
- As such, Bunds at the low-end of a 133.09-43 range, the high printed early doors on a cooler Spanish Flash CPI release; Monday’s base at 132.72.
- Gilts steady at the low-end of yesterday’s 98.34-98.93 paramete...
Europe Market Open: BoJ hiked and is to taper monthly bond purchases, FOMC & earnings next
Newsquawk Rundown, Daily Podcast
07/31/24 • 4 min
- APAC stocks gained heading into month-end as participants digested a slew of data releases and the BoJ policy decision.
- BoJ hiked rates by 15bps and is to taper monthly bond purchases by JPY 400bln per quarter.
- Chinese manufacturing PMI remained in contractionary territory, core Australian CPI measures came in below expectations.
- European equity futures indicate a mildly higher open with Euro Stoxx 50 future up 0.1% after the cash market finished with gains of 0.5% on Tuesday.
- AUD the laggard post-CPI data and JPY flat vs. the USD after some volatile price action. DXY is a touch softer.
- Looking ahead, highlights include German Trade & Unemployment Rate, French CPI, EZ Flash HICP, US ADP & Chicago PMI, FOMC & BCB Policy Announcements, Fed Chair Powell's Press Conference, Supply from Germany & US Quarterly Refunding Announcement.
- Earnings from HSBC, Taylor Wimpey, GSK, Lufthansa, Fresenius SE, Siemens Healthineers, Adidas, Schneider Electric, Danone, Safran, Telefonica, BBVA, Telecom Italia, ADP, Boeing, Mastercard, ARM, Meta, Qualcomm & T-Mobile US.
US TRADE
EQUITIES
- US stocks finished mixed with price action choppy heading into the upcoming risk events and as selling pressures emerged after JOLTS came in above expectations with the prior revised higher and Consumer Confidence also beat expectations, while markets also reflected on the heightened geopolitical tensions after Israel retaliated to the Golan Heights strike in which it targeted a top Hezbollah commander in a Beirut suburb. As such, the major indices were varied and the Nasdaq underperformed as the tech sector was pressured heading into more of the Magnificent Seven earnings.
- SPX -0.50% at 5,436, NDX -1.40% at 18,796, DJIA +0.50% at 40,743, RUT +0.40% 2,243.
- Click here for a detailed summary.
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- US VP Harris is expected to announce her VP pick as soon as Monday, according to sources cited by Reuters. It was also reported that Harris will hold her first rally with her running mate next Tuesday in Philadelphia, according to Politico.
- US VP Harris wiped out Republican Presidential Candidate Trump's swing-state lead in the latest election poll, according to Bloomberg. Furthermore, the poll showed Harris gained ground versus Trump in each of the seven swing states since Biden dropped out of the race.
- Microsoft Corp (MSFT) Q4 2024 (USD): EPS 2.95 (exp. 2.93), Revenue 64.73bln (exp. 64.39bln), Intelligent Cloud rev. 28.52bln (exp. 28.72bln). Co. shares were lower by 2.7% after-hours
- Advanced Micro Devices Inc (AMD) Q2 2024 (USD): Adj. EPS 0.69 (exp. 0.68), Revenue 5.84bln (exp. 5.72bln). Co. shares were higher by +7.6% after-hours
APAC TRADE
BOJ
- BoJ raised its short-term interest rate by 15bps to 0.25% and announced a change in bond purchases in which it will no longer provide a range but will instead specify amounts, while the BoJ is to reduce scheduled monthly bond buying by around JPY 400bln each quarter and with bond purchases to be JPY 3tln a month as of Q1 2026. BoJ said the decision on rates was made by a 7-2 vote with Nakamura and Noguchi the dissenters, while the decision on bond buying made unanimously. Furthermore, it stated that it may modify the bond-taper plan upon mid-term view as appropriate, if deemed necessary for functioning of JGB market, and at the June 2025 meeting, the BoJ will discuss the guideline for its JGB buying from April 2026 and announce results.
EQUITIES
- APAC stocks gained heading into month-end as participants digested a slew of data releases and the BoJ policy decision.
- ASX 200 was led by strength in energy and tech, while domestic yields were pressured after mostly softer inflation data.
- Nikkei 225 declined heading into the BoJ policy decision after rate hike bets were boosted following several local press reports that the central bank is to consider a 15bps rate increase and although the hike materialised, the Bank's taper plan was less aggressive than many had called for.
- Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. gained as participants digested the latest Chinese PMI data in which headline Manufacturing PMI topped forecasts despite remaining in contraction territory, while Non-Manufacturing PMI matched estimat...
Europe Market Open: Mixed trade with Chinese data in focus into a packed week incl. FOMC & BoJ
Newsquawk Rundown, Daily Podcast
09/16/24 • 3 min
- APAC stocks were mixed amid the holiday-thinned conditions and as participants braced for this week's central bank announcements including from the FOMC, BoE and BoJ.
- Chinese house prices further deteriorated, while the latest Chinese Industrial Production and Retail Sales also disappointed.
- After last week's late dovish Fed repricing, odds of a 50bps cut sit at 59% vs. 41% chance of a 25bps reduction.
- European equity futures are indicative of a positive cash open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future +0.2% after the cash market closed higher by 0.6% on Friday.
- DXY is on the backfoot and back below the 101 mark, EUR/USD sits around the 1.11 level, JPY is the biggest gainer vs. the USD.
- Looking ahead, highlights include EZ Labour Costs/Wages, NY Fed Manufacturing, Canadian Manufacturing Sales, ECB Survey of Monetary Analysts, Comments from ECB’s de Guindos & Lane.
US TRADE
EQUITIES
- US stocks were bid throughout Friday's session with outperformance in the small caps Russell 2k and all sectors closed in the green with Utilities, Communication and Materials the best performers although Health Care, Real Estate and Financials lagged, while T-Notes bull steepened as traders increased bets for a 50bp rate cut at the upcoming Fed meeting with money markets pricing the decision at a near coin toss.
- SPX +0.54% at 5,626, NDX +0.47% at 19,515, DJIA +0.72% at 41,394, RUT +2.49% at 2,182.
- Click here for a detailed summary.
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- Multiple shots were fired near former President Trump’s golf course in West Palm Beach and the Secret Service reportedly opened fire at a suspected person with a weapon while Trump was golfing, according to law enforcement sources cited by AP. Trump’s campaign said the former President is safe following a shooting in his vicinity, while Trump said he will never give up and nothing will stop him. Furthermore, the FBI said it is investigating what appears to be an assassination attempt and a Palm Beach law enforcement official said the suspect was arrested and that they found an AK-47 type weapon.
- Goldman Sachs still sees 25bps of Fed easing this week and for each remaining meeting this year, while JPMorgan reiterated its call for a 50bp Fed rate cut in September.
- WSJ opinion piece by Greg Ip noted that the Fed's rate decision this week looks more difficult than it should be and the real question isn’t how much to cut, but where rates ought to be, while it added that the answer is much lower which argues for a half-point cut.
APAC TRADE
EQUITIES
- APAC stocks were mixed amid the holiday-thinned conditions with many key markets in the region closed and as participants braced for this week's central bank announcements including from the FOMC, BoE and BoJ.
- ASX 200 mildly gained as real estate and financials led the advances across most sectors aside from defensives.
- Hang Seng was dragged lower amid the absence of mainland participants and with underperformance seen in property developers after Chinese house prices further deteriorated, while the latest Chinese Industrial Production and Retail Sales also disappointed.
- US equity futures (ES +0.1%) took a breather after rallying on Friday as markets priced increased odds for an incoming 50bps Fed rate cut.
- European equity futures are indicative of a positive cash open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future +0.2% after the cash market closed higher by 0.6% on Friday.
FX
- DXY dipped below 101.00 ahead of the FOMC and as participants second-guessed the magnitude of a looming Fed rate cut.
- EUR/USD edged mild gains and eventually retested the 1.1100 level which has provided some resistance.
- GBP/USD was slightly firmer although further upside was limited with a BoE meeting also scheduled later this week.
- USD/JPY remained subdued after last week's retreat and with Japanese participants away for Respect for the Aged Day.
- Antipodeans were initially rangebound following the disappointing data releases from China, but later took advantage of the softer buck.
- Bank of Canada Governor Macklem opened the door to increasing the pace of rate cuts as growth fears mount, according...
US Market Open: Equities at session highs, Dollar softer & Gilts pare initial post-CPI weakness; Central Bank speak due
Newsquawk Rundown, Daily Podcast
04/17/24 • 3 min
- Equities are in the green, except for the AEX, which is weighed on by poor ASML results; Luxury bellwether LVMH gains post-earnings
- Dollar is lower though still above 106.00, Antipodeans outperform and GBP benefits post-CPI
- USTs incrementally firmer, Gilts gapped lower following hotter-than-expected CPI though have pared to near unchanged
- Crude is pressured as markets await geopols updates, XAU is firmer, benefiting from recent Dollar weakness
- Looking ahead, Fed Beige Book, Comments from ECB’s Lagarde & Schnabel, BoE’s Bailey, Greene & Haskel, Fed’s Bowman & Mester. Earnings from Citizens Financials & Abbott.
EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
- European bourses, Stoxx600 (+0.4%) are mostly firmer, with the exception of the AEX (-0.2%), hampered by poor ASML (-3.5%) results. Luxury name LVMH (+2.5%) leads the CAC 40 (+1%) higher.
- Sectors hold a positive tilt; Basic Resources tops the pile, benefiting from broader strength in underlying metals prices, namely iron. Consumer Products is lifted by Luxury bellwether LVMH, as well as post-earnings strength in Adidas (+8.1%). Tech is found at the foot of the pile after the poor ASML metrics.
- US Equity Futures (ES +0.3%, NQ +0.3%, RTY +0.3%) are modestly firmer and are trading towards session highs. UAL (+4.9%) benefits post-earnings, after reporting solid metrics and noting that demand remained strong.
- Click here and here for the sessions European pre-market equity newsflow, including earnings from: LVMH, ASML & Adidas.
- Click here for more details.
FX
- USD is losing ground vs. peers but holding above the 106 mark after printing a 106.51 high yesterday; the "hawkish comments" from Chair Powell on Tuesday were unable to provide further sustained support.
- EUR is enjoying some reprieve vs. the USD after finding a base just above the 1.06 mark yesterday. No revisions to EZ CPI will have come as a relief but talk from FX strategists continues to favour a potential approach to 1.05.
- GBP is firmer vs. both the USD and EUR post-UK inflation metrics which came in slightly firmer-than-expected. As such, BoE rate cut bets have been scaled back with the first fully-priced cut pushed back to Nov. from Sept. Cable has eclipsed yesterday's 1.2472 peak with attention now on a potential test of 1.25.
- JPY is firmer vs. the USD but to a lesser extent than peers. That will be of little consolation to JPY bulls given the recent surge in the pair. Yesterday was defined by a sharp sell-off in the European afternoon; suspected by some to be intervention.
- Antipodeans are both top of the leaderboard vs. the USD. NZD is digesting the latest NZ inflation metrics. Headline prints were in-line but some stickiness was seen in underlying data.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1025 vs exp. 7.2404 (prev. 7.1028)
- Click here for more details.
FIXED INCOME
- USTs are firmer by a handful of ticks as the benchmark lifts slightly from Tuesday's Fed-induced hawkish action. Currently at a high of 107-25+ from Tuesday's 107-13+ contract low which was spurred by Fed speak.
- Bund price action is directionally in-fitting with USTs and were unreactive to the unrevised Final HICP metrics; impetus today will be from several ECB speakers including Schnabel (Hawk). Bunds at the mid-point of 130.99-131.36 parameters with the contract low just below at 130.97.
- Gilts gapped lower by around 11 ticks before slipping further to a 96.01 trough and new contract low below Tuesday's 96.03 base after hotter-than-expected March CPI numbers. Gilts have since pared and are modestly firmer on the...
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The first episode of Newsquawk Rundown, Daily Podcast was released on Dec 6, 2023.
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