New Thinking for a New World - a Tallberg Foundation Podcast

It’s been an amazing, terrifying eight months in the Middle East. The horror of October 7th; the endless pounding of Gaza ever since; civilian deaths, casualties and lives disrupted, mostly in Gaza but also in Israel, the West Bank, and Lebanon; Red Sea shipping attacks; Iran and Israel’s exchange of massive missile and drone attacks; rising anti-Semitism and growing Israeli isolation around the world. What if it could all be ended by one audacious diplomatic masterstroke?

That sounds too good to be true, but it is exactly what American diplomats are trying to make happen. Their idea is a three-way agreement with a formal U.S. defense guarantee for Saudi Arabia who would sign a peace treaty with Israel (while also rolling back their recently strengthened economic and tech relations with China) who would end the Gaza war and firmly commit to the two-state solution with the Palestinians. In other words, a complete reset of the dynamics of the Middle East.

Fantasy or real possibility? This episode of New Thinking for a New World explores the contours of a possible deal with Neil Quilliam, a British expert on Saudi Arabia and more generally the Arab Gulf, who is a fellow at Chatham House.

Can diplomacy trump hate? Please tell us what you think and leave a comment.

Both of the following statements are true:

• The surprise October 7 attack by Hamas on Israel was brutal, outrageous, inhumane, and far outside the boundaries of behavior even remotely “acceptable” in war.
• The ongoing Israeli assault on Gaza has terrorized Palestinian civilians, destroyed the majority of their residential and commercial buildings and infrastructure, contributed to a horrible humanitarian crisis and has made the territory all but uninhabitable—even if aimed at destroying Hamas.

That is not to suggest moral equivalency, nor to judge who is guilty of what. Rather, it is to argue that it is more critical than it has ever been that this tragedy should beget a new effort to create sustainable peace and prosperity for Palestinians as well as for Israelis.

But, if peace wasn’t possible before October 7, how likely is it that the horrors of the past six months have improved prospects? Not surprisingly, hatred and shock not understanding and goodwill are the order of the day in both societies. And, haven’t the endless efforts over the past 75 years long since exhausted all imaginable diplomatic possibilities? Who has the moral standing, never mind the agency, to construct a solution? For that matter, who would speak for the Palestinians if any negotiation could be launched?

Nabil Fahmy, former Egyptian foreign minister and career diplomat who has spent his professional life working on these issues, doesn’t claim to have answers. But he deeply believes that failing to try to find them would condemn his region to a worsening cycle of violence—with consequences that could be far worse than what we have witnessed since October.

Listen as Minister Fahmy discusses not only why, but how a different future might be possible.

Tell us what you think: Can you imagine a world where Israelis and Palestinians can live and prosper, side by side, in their own countries?

Terrorists and Afghanistan were back in the headlines because of the recent murderous ISIS-K attack on a concert in Moscow. No one should be surprised, since terrorism seems to be one of that benighted country’s few reliable exports. But, shouldn’t we all be worried that once again the Taliban seem to be hosting terrorists who can strike far outside their borders? And shouldn’t someone be trying to do something about the underlying problems of a failed state?

The good news is that someone is: Pashtana Durrani, a formidable Afghan woman, is deeply devoted to bringing her country into the 21st century, one empowered woman and one educated girl at a time. Through Learn, an organization that educates high school girls in their home villages, she might be one of the bigger threats to Afghan fundamentalism in the long run. Needless to say, the Taliban aren’t happy with her, which is why she works from exile.

Pashtana recently published “Last to Eat, Last to Learn” describing her journey so far. The book and this conversation aren’t just optimistic, they are proof points that individuals can make a difference, if they are stubborn and have good ideas. Ms Durrani, who was honored in 2021 as a Tällberg-SNF-Eliasson Global Leadership Prize winner in the Emerging Leader category, has both.

Moreover, she may be right: educated girls might just be to the Taliban what kryptonite was to Superman. What do you think?

Supposedly, Herodotus wrote that when the Greeks were told that the Persian archers at the Battle of Thermopylae would blot out the sun with their arrows, they responded: “Good, then we shall have our battle in the shade.”

Fast forward to the early 21st century and the issue is no longer Persian arrows, but the relentless heat from a sun less and less buffered by earth’s atmosphere because of the accumulated greenhouse gasses. The result, according to scientists, is a rapidly warming planet with increasingly extreme weather, droughts and floods, supercyclones and hurricanes, raging forest fires, or other unusually intense natural disasters. All of that has become the new normal with every likelihood that what’s extreme today might be perceived as moderate next year. The need for shade has never been greater!

What can be done?

One possibility is what’s called "solar radiation management.” SRM essentially amounts to reducing the amount of solar radiation hitting, and hence warming, the planet. It's either an obvious approach—think, if not Persian arrows then the eruption of huge volcanoes—or crazy dangerous, depending on where you sit.

Luke Iseman and Andrew Song think it’s obvious, and are pioneers in trying to deflect solar radiation away from the Earth. But, unlike scientists, they have decided to stop talking about it and have begun doing it. Listen as they explain how they think they can cool the planet.

Is it okay for individuals to try to re-engineer the climate? Tell us what you think.

The Middle East is a war zone with Gaza as ground zero. But barely a day goes by when there isn't also fighting in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Yemen, Iran, Israel, the Red Sea, or elsewhere. The danger is that one of these battles could suddenly ignite a bigger conflict with global consequences.

Perhaps surprisingly, Yemen may be a prime candidate for that honor. For years the Iranian-backed Shia Houthis have been fighting, more or less successfully, the Saudi and Emirati-backed Sunni government; today the Houthis control a majority of Yemen's population, but not the country’s hydrocarbons. And—suddenly—they matter, far beyond Yemen’s borders.

Why? First, the Houthis are an integral part of Iran's coalition of regional militias who could become significant players in a regional conflict. Second, for months the Houthis have been attacking container ships going through the Red Sea, diverting substantial traffic away from the Suez Canal. Third, a recent Houthi drone attack on Tel Aviv led Israel to launch a disproportionately devastating assault on the Yemeni port of Hodeida which was clearly aimed more at the Iranians than at the Houthis.

That’s exactly how a local conflict could become something much bigger.

Our guest on this episode is an expert in all things Yemen. Allison Minor is an American Middle East expert, at the Brookings Institution in Washington. Although she recently served as Deputy Special Envoy for Yemen at the U.S. State Department, the views she shared with New Thinking for a New World are her own, and not those of the American government.

What do you think: can a general war in the Middle East be avoided?