The End of Scaling?

Explicit content warning

11/19/24 • 67 min

Multiple news outlets, including The Information, Bloomberg, and Reuters [see sources] are reporting an "end of scaling" for the current AI paradigm. In this episode we look into these articles, as well as a wide variety of economic forecasting, empirical analysis, and technical papers to understand the validity, and impact of these reports. We also use this as an opportunity to contextualize the realized versus promised fruits of "AI".

(00:23) - Hot off the press
(01:49) - The end of scaling
(10:50) - "Useful tools" and "agentic" "AI"
(17:19) - The end of quantization
(25:18) - Hedging
(29:41) - The end of upwards mobility
(33:12) - How to grow an economy
(38:14) - Transformative & disruptive tech
(49:19) - Finding the meaning
(56:14) - Bursting AI bubble and Trump
(01:00:58) - The muck

Links

The Information article - OpenAI Shifts Strategy as Rate of ‘GPT’ AI Improvements Slows
Bloomberg [article] - OpenAI, Google and Anthropic Are Struggling to Build More Advanced AI
Reuters article - OpenAI and others seek new path to smarter AI as current methods hit limitations
Paper on the end of quantization - Scaling Laws for Precision
Tim Dettmers Tweet on "Scaling Laws for Precision"

Empirical Analysis

WU Vienna paper - Unslicing the pie: AI innovation and the labor share in European regions
IMF paper - The Labor Market Impact of Artificial Intelligence: Evidence from US Regions
NBER paper - Automation, Career Values, and Political Preferences
Pew Research Center report - Which U.S. Workers Are More Exposed to AI on Their Jobs?

Forecasting

NBER/Acemoglu paper - The Simple Macroeconomics of AI
NBER/Acemoglu paper - Harms of AI
IMF report - Gen-AI: Artificial Intelligence and the Future of Work
Submission to Open Philanthropy AI Worldviews Contest - Transformative AGI by 2043 is <1% likely

Externalities and the Bursting Bubble

NBER paper - Bubbles, Rational Expectations and Financial Markets
Clayton Christensen lecture capture - Clayton Christensen: Disruptive innovation
The New Republic article - The “Godfather of AI” Predicted I Wouldn’t Have a Job. He Was Wrong.
Latent Space article - $2 H100s: How the GPU Rental Bubble Burst

On Productization

Palantir press release on introduction of Claude to US security and defense
Ars Technica article - Claude AI to process secret government data through new Palantir deal
OpenAI press release on partnering with Condé Nast
Candid Technology article - Shutterstock and Getty partner with OpenAI and BRIA
E2B
Stripe agents
Robopair

O...

(00:23) - Hot off the press
(01:49) - The end of scaling
(10:50) - "Useful tools" and "agentic" "AI"
(17:19) - The end of quantization
(25:18) - Hedging
(29:41) - The end of upwards mobility
(33:12) - How to grow an economy
(38:14) - Transformative & disruptive tech
(49:19) - Finding the meaning
(56:14) - Bursting AI bubble and Trump
(01:00:58) - The muck

Links

The Information article - OpenAI Shifts Strategy as Rate of ‘GPT’ AI Improvements Slows
Bloomberg [article] - OpenAI, Google and Anthropic Are Struggling to Build More Advanced AI
Reuters article - OpenAI and others seek new path to smarter AI as current methods hit limitations
Paper on the end of quantization - Scaling Laws for Precision
Tim Dettmers Tweet on "Scaling Laws for Precision"

Empirical Analysis

WU Vienna paper - Unslicing the pie: AI innovation and the labor share in European regions
IMF paper - The Labor Market Impact of Artificial Intelligence: Evidence from US Regions
NBER paper - Automation, Career Values, and Political Preferences
Pew Research Center report - Which U.S. Workers Are More Exposed to AI on Their Jobs?

Forecasting

NBER/Acemoglu paper - The Simple Macroeconomics of AI
NBER/Acemoglu paper - Harms of AI
IMF report - Gen-AI: Artificial Intelligence and the Future of Work
Submission to Open Philanthropy AI Worldviews Contest - Transformative AGI by 2043 is <1% likely

Externalities and the Bursting Bubble

NBER paper - Bubbles, Rational Expectations and Financial Markets
Clayton Christensen lecture capture - Clayton Christensen: Disruptive innovation
The New Republic article - The “Godfather of AI” Predicted I Wouldn’t Have a Job. He Was Wrong.
Latent Space article - $2 H100s: How the GPU Rental Bubble Burst

On Productization

Palantir press release on introduction of Claude to US security and defense
Ars Technica article - Claude AI to process secret government data through new Palantir deal
OpenAI press release on partnering with Condé Nast
Candid Technology article - Shutterstock and Getty partner with OpenAI and BRIA
E2B
Stripe agents
Robopair

O...

Previous Episode

US National Security Memorandum on AI, Oct 2024

October 2024 saw a National Security Memorandum and US framework for using AI in national security contexts. We go through the content so you don't have to, pull out the important bits, and summarize our main takeaways.

(00:48) - The memorandum
(06:28) - What the press is saying
(10:39) - What's in the text
(13:48) - Potential harms
(17:32) - Miscellaneous notable stuff
(31:11) - What's the US governments take on AI?
(45:45) - The civil side - comments on reporting
(49:31) - The commenters
(01:07:33) - Our final hero
(01:10:46) - The muck

Links

Related Media

CAIS Newsletter - AI Safety Newsletter #43
NIST report - Artificial Intelligence Risk Management Framework: Generative Artificial Intelligence Profile
ACLU press release - ACLU Warns that Biden-Harris Administration Rules on AI in National Security Lack Key Protections
Wikipedia article - Presidential Memorandum
Reuters article - White House presses gov't AI use with eye on security, guardrails
Forbes article - America’s AI Security Strategy Acknowledges There’s No Stopping AI
DefenseScoop article - New White House directive prods DOD, intelligence agencies to move faster adopting AI capabilities
NYTimes article - Biden Administration Outlines Government ‘Guardrails’ for A.I. Tools
Forbes article - 5 Things To Know About The New National Security Memorandum On AI – And What ChatGPT Thinks
Federal News Network interview - A look inside the latest White House artificial intelligence memo
Govtech article - Reactions Mostly Positive to National Security AI Memo
The Information article - Biden Memo Encourages Military Use of AI

Other Sources

Physical Intelligence press release - π0: Our First Generalist Policy
OpenAI press release - Introducing ChatGPT Search
WhoPoo App!!

Next Episode

How to Safely Handle Your AGI

While on the campaign trail, Trump made claims about repealing Biden's Executive Order on AI, but what will actually be changed when he gets into office? We take this opportunity to examine policies being discussed or implemented by leading governments around the world.

(00:00) - Intro
(00:29) - Hot off the press
(02:59) - Repealing the AI executive order?
(11:16) - "Manhattan" for AI
(24:33) - EU
(30:47) - UK
(39:27) - Bengio
(44:39) - Comparing EU/UK to USA
(45:23) - China
(51:12) - Taxes
(55:29) - The muck

Links

SFChronicle article - US gathers allies to talk AI safety as Trump's vow to undo Biden's AI policy overshadows their work
Trump's Executive Order on AI (the AI governance executive order at home)
Biden's Executive Order on AI
Congressional report brief which advises a "Manhattan Project for AI"

Non-USA

CAIRNE resource collection on CERN for AI
UK Frontier AI Taskforce report (2023)
International interim report (2024)
Bengio's paper - AI and Catastrophic Risk
Davidad's Safeguarded AI program at ARIA
MIT Technology Review article - Four things to know about China’s new AI rules in 2024
GovInsider article - Australia’s national policy for ethical use of AI starts to take shape
Future of Privacy forum article - The African Union’s Continental AI Strategy: Data Protection and Governance Laws Set to Play a Key Role in AI Regulation

Taxes

Macroeconomic Dynamics paper - Automation, Stagnation, and the Implications of a Robot Tax
CESifo paper - AI, Automation, and Taxation
GavTax article - Taxation of Artificial Intelligence and Automation

Perplexity Pages

CERN for AI page
China's AI policy page
Singapore's AI policy page
AI policy in Africa, India, Australia page

Other Sources

Artificial Intelligence Made Simple article - NYT's "AI Outperforms Doctors" Story Is Wrong
Intel report - Reclaim Your Day: The Impact of AI PCs on Productivity
Heise Online article - Users on AI PCs slower, Intel sees problem in unenlightened users
The Hacker News