L2 Capital

In today's episode, Marcelo López spoke to Brandon Munro, CEO of Bannerman Resources, a company listed on the Australian stock exchange, ASX, focused on the exploration and development of uranium mines in Namibia. Brandon, who has participated in L2 Capital's Podcasts # 05, # 14 and # 18, returned to discuss the Russian Suspension Agreement (RSA), the Iran waivers and the outcome of the Nuclear Fuel Working Group (NFWG).

Munro starts by explaining what the Russian Suspension Agreement (RSA) is in a very clear and objective way. Then, when asked about a potential disruption in the supply of nuclear fuel to the US due to this suspension as early as 2021, Brandon explains what can be done to mitigate this situation.

He also discusses the Corfu Declaration, an agreement similar to the RSA, but in Europe, and its practical effects. Through this Declaration, Russia would be unable to supply more than 20% of Europe’s enriched uranium demand.

Brandon explains how global regulation and control of uranium is carried out in the context of the global nuclear fuel supply chain, as uranium can be mined in Australia, converted and enriched in Russia, produced as a fuel in Sweden and be used in an American reactor.

Brandon comments on the situation in Iran, the agreement signed by President Obama, the US discontentment and subsequent withdrawal from that agreement, on the waivers granted to some companies, the recent withdrawal of three of these waivers and the consequences this could have.

Munro also talks about the release of the Nuclear Fuel Working Group (NFWG) report at the end of April, its main points, the consequences for the global nuclear industry and, specifically, for the USA.

Finally, Brandon and Marcelo discuss Cigar Lake, the Cameco mine whose production was suspended this year, the movement in Port Hope and the difficulties that traders are facing to find uranium in the midst of this bull market.

No episódio de hoje, Marcelo López conversou com Rodrigo Constantino, chairman do Instituto Liberal, autor de vários livros famosos e comentarista no programa 3 em 1 na Jovem Pan.

Rodrigo começa falando sobre os efeitos econômicos do isolamento e distanciamento social causados pela pandemia do coronavírus no mundo.

Em seguida, ele que já trabalhou com o atual ministro da economia Paulo Guedes, nos conta sobre o backgroundintelectual do ministro e comenta sobre os efeitos da pandemia no Brasil e da enorme oportunidade que o país tem no momento de fazer o dever de casa e se sair bem.

Constantino expõe sua visão sobre a situação econômica do país e sobre a relação entre Paulo Guedes e Bolsonaro. Nesse contexto, ele avalia as possibilidades de haver um desmantelamento de parte da equipe econômica do governo, tendo em vista fatores como a situação histórica do Brasil, a política do Centrão e o corporativismo brasileiro.

Em referência a um episódio recente, Rodrigo explica a situação da saída do ex-ministro Moro do governo, suas razões (ou falta delas) e implicações políticas para ele e o presidente.

Constantino traz sua opinião sobre a atual situação chinesa com relação a Hong Kong e Taiwan, e como o mundo está lidando com isso. O sistema vigorante até pouco tempo era o de 1 país, 2 sistemas, e a democracia sempre foi um ponto importante em Hong Kong.

Como economista, Rodrigo discute sobre a recente desvalorização da moeda brasileira, o real, e suas consequências disso para o país.

Rodrigo, como libertário que é, dá sua opinião sobre o bitcoin, a principal criptomoeda do mundo. Aliás, esse foi um ponto interessante e controverso da discussão.

Por fim, Constantino comenta sobre um de seus livros, intitulado “Brasileiro é otário?”, explicando por que o tão famoso jeitinho brasileiro é, na verdade, uma draga para o desenvolvimento do país.

In today's episode, Marcelo López spoke to Shawn Hackett, president of Hackett Financial Advisors, a company that specializes in providing advice for farmers and hedgers about soft commodities, based on analysis and forecasts of climate cycles. Hackett Financial Advisors helps traders and producers make decisions in agricultural commodities in order to better conduct their business.

Shawn initially discusses global warming and climate change, issues that have been around for some years. He argues for the non-anthropogenic factors that historically influence the planet's climate, in contrast to the view that the human factor is paramount. Hackett explains how solar cycles work, how long each cycle is, the impact that changes in the sun bring to Earth, what sunspots are, what they represent in terms of physical phenomena and how solar winds affect our planet.

Shawn comments on the importance of understanding and monitoring solar cycles for agricultural commodities and how reliable these cycles are. From an historical perspective, he links these cycles to geopolitical and economic events and also to food production abundance and scarcity.

Hackett explains that the sun rotates around the centre of mass of the solar system and not around itself, as one might think. He then correlates this characteristic with the influence that solar activity has on the planet Earth under given circumstances.

According to him, other variables are also important to understand the climate and the changes to which it is subject. He talks about the temperature of the Pacific and Atlantic oceans and their own cycles and how these cycles, associated with solar cycles, impact the climate in the world. Shawn also talks about the El Niño and La Niña phenomena and their relevance to the climate.

Shawn talks about the moment we are in in relation to solar cycles and ocean temperatures, and the effects that they will have on planet Earth. Hackett also talks about the existing technologies to deal with adversities in agricultural production and comments on which commodities producers and traders should seek exposure to at this time.

In today's episode, Marcelo López spoke with Anas Alhajji, a partner at Energy Outlook Advisors, as well as an internationally recognised author, speaker, researcher and specialist in the energy markets.

Anas begins by discussing how the issue of the types and quality of oil is important and how that impacts the world trade in this commodity. In this context, he talks about the characteristics of shale oil produced in the USA, the structure and capacity of North American refineries, the country's exports and imports of oil, the future demand for oil products and the impact of natural gas on the market.

Alhajji talks about the sharp drop in the price of oil this year and how the crisis that the sector is going through is unprecedented and the inconveniences and uncertainties that this creates for OPEC. He talks about his expectations regarding the impact of the coronavirus on oil demand and price.

Anas highlights in his analysis the influence that the American presidential election has on oil producing countries and how this is a decisive factor for the price of the commodity in 2020.

Alhajji points out that the years 2021 to 2023 should be very interesting for the sector and predicts a major global energy crisis, to which he attributes different factors, such as, the underestimation of future demand for oil products and the hype of electric vehicles.

Anas also states his point of view on the dynamics involving shale oil from the United States and Canadian tar sands.

When it comes to investment, Alhajji talks about how he prefers to position himself and where he sees more value along the sector's production chain. He also lists the main risks he sees for the sector and what can be done about the crisis he foresees.

Alhajji discusses his point of view on the expectations of oil demand made by many analysts and the exaggerations that these analysts make when estimating the impacts of certain changes.

No episódio de hoje, Marcelo López conversou com Fernando Ulrich, sócio da Liberta Investimentos, palestrante, autor do livro “Bitcoin: a moeda na era digital” e conselheiro do Instituto Mises Brasil.

Fernando conta sobre sua trajetória profissional, como vivenciou a grande crise financeira de 2008 e como teve seu primeiro contato com a Escola Austríaca a partir de então, mencionando figuras que o atraíram para o assunto, como Ron Paul e Peter Schiff.

Ulrich, que cursou mestrado em economia da Escola Austríaca em Madrid, explica como surgiu e se desenvolveu essa escola de pensamento econômico por meio de expoentes como Carl Menger, Eugen von böhm-bawerk, Ludwig von Mises e Friedrich Hayek.

Ele traça um paralelo com outras escolas de pensamento e esclarece por que os austríacos ficam excluídos do mainstream e do currículo das universidades, com menção à forma como enxergam a economia, o efeito das políticas públicas e a intervenção governamental.

Fernando, que é um entusiasta das criptomoedas, especialmente do Bitcoin, explica por que ele acredita no futuro das moedas digitais e aborda críticas relacionadas a elas, como volatilidade e funcionalidade como meio de troca e reserva de valor.

Quando o assunto é bolsa brasileira, Ulrich apresenta o case para o investimento em ativos de renda variável do Brasil, com considerações sobre as políticas públicas atualmente em curso, macroeconomia, composição do principal índice acionário local, fluxo de capital, participação de estrangeiros e responde se ainda vala a pena investir por aqui.

Sobre o dólar, Fernando dá uma explicação para o porquê de a divisa norte-americana estar no atual patamar frente ao real e fala quais as perspectivas para a moeda. Nesse contexto, ele ainda argumenta sobre a importância de se investir no exterior.

Ulrich comenta sobre os mercados globais e como a atuação dos bancos centrais e os movimentos recentes do Fed impactam os preços dos ativos mundiais. Ele discorre sobre existência de uma bolha de tudo (the everything bubble) e a repercussão que as políticas monetárias têm na sociedade geral e na política, além de tratar sobre como o Brasil reagiria na eventualidade de um crash.