Just the Tips (by the Stock Jocks)

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In Episode 9 (recorded September 12, 2024), the Stock Jocks give their bull/bear treatment to security powerhouse Crowdstrike ($CRWD), purveyor of the Falcon platform (hence the episode title, “Flipping the Bird”. So clever and on-brand!) We begin with a heartfelt apology from Gordon on behalf of the team for the month-long delay in the editing room; technical issues nearly killed this gem of an episode but we managed to salvage it through many hours of tedious effort. Gordon hosts, Bruce puts on his bull horns, and George puts on his “other” bear suit (not the one he gets defensive about when asked.) Was the “Blue Screen of Death” debacle a buying opportunity, or likely to result in further blues for investors? Listen and find out!

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In Episode 8 (recorded August 11, 2024), the Stock Jocks give their bull/bear treatment power semiconductor specialist Onsemi ($ON). Bull Gordon gets into a virtual “sword fight” with co-host George, who puts on his bear suit (very much unlike the one he dons in his basement on the weekends.) We of course also recap $SMCI earnings and implications for $NVDA. George would like us to advise listeners that this episode has some particularly “naughty” comments and is hopeful that his mother won’t listen (and give us 1 star!) You’ve been warned! Gordon would like everyone to know he thinks George is being a weenie. Compliments / complaints / nudes: [email protected]

Highlights:

(2:44) Obligatory take on the shifting sands of our Idiocracy / recent changes to political landscape for investors

(4:18) George pontificates on why recent market volatility is overdone; the Jocks debate the current state of the macro and the finer points of the “Sahm rule” for calling a recession

(10:49) $SMCI earnings (did anyone get the plates on the truck that hit those margins?) and implications for AI demand and $NVDA (on its road, per Bruce, to $10 trillion in market cap)

(18:44) Bruce floats a new income idea for unemployed Gordon: fraudulent invoices to the Mag 7! And why Gordon will never have $100 million dollars (hint: it’s a “naughty” reason!)

(19:58) George takes a brief victory lap on $SHOP (the topic of our last episode!)

(21:57) The Main Event: $ON is giving Gordon a semi! Company overview, and how Onsemi is like He-man (and Orko’s incomparable legacy as a “submissive”)

(32:25) Recent financial performance and outlook

(38:36) What might have been: May 2023 analyst day projections vs Street

(39:26) DA COMPS!

(42:05) George kicks off the bear case. A falling knife? Timing is everything. Host Bruce makes early deductions for style.

(49:29) George argues that cars (a key end market for Onsemi) is a market that is challenged by extending replacement cycles near-term and will be decimated by robotaxis in the long term.

(1:03:25) Stock Jocks “open their kimonos” and reveal their “real” opinions.

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In Episode 7 (recorded June 28, 2024), the Stock Jocks give their bull/bear treatment to e-commerce specialist Shopify ($SHOP). Bull George (a proud owner of $SHOP) shameless “talks his book” and tries to convince us the put some $SHOP shares in the basket (or we get the hose again!). Conversely, Bear Bruce makes the case Shopify is basically GoDaddy plus shitty pass-through payment revenue and therefore should be comped to other similarly shitty companies. Listen in to learn why Gordon thinks Shopify should be hosting bat orgies!

Highlights:

(2:17) The Jocks ́ ̈hot take” (this episode was recorded the day after the debate) on the Presidential debate and what it means for stocks (if anything) and how it may have impacted lotion consumption in David Sack ́s house(s).

(6:56) Newsbreak! $NVDA shift in sentiment and $400B pullback

(10:36) George cops to his losses in SolarEDGE ($SEDG) (and begrudgingly, to his “edging” hobby) and the Stock Jocks half-assedly discuss the current state of the EV and Solar end markets

(17:44) George kicks off the Bull case for $SHOP.

(20:07) Why Shopify is a “Perfect Company” / George bull “fever dream”

(35:00) WAM, BAM, thank you TAM! George dives deep into the key question: how big is the market opportunity for Shopify?

(48:17) The AI opportunity for Shopify

(54:51) DA COMPS!

(1:02:05) Bruce pleads with us to empty our basket of $SHOP shares: “Shopped Till IT DROPPED”

(1:07:38) A dive into the “quality” of Shopify ́s revenue

(1:11:10) DA REAL COMPS! (per Bruce)

(1:21:55) Shopify ́s earnings trajectory reflects its status as a “poster child” pandemic stock (and why Shopify should start hosting bat orgies!)

(1:25:17) The Stock Jocks reveal their “real” opinions.

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In a blissfully more succinct Episode 6 (recorded June 16, 2024), the Stock Jocks give their customary bull/bear treatment to hypeconverged infrastructure specialist Nutanix ($NTNX), which, turns out, is not a breakfast cereal and is instead, per Bear Gordon, “a shitty on-premise box company.”

Highlights:

(1:50) Gordon ́s budding feud with the Reddit Advertising Overlords (We ́re still hopeful they may adopt the moniker we ́ve given them – “Glory Hole of the Internet”. The Jocks know a “shakedown” when they see one!

(3:31) At last, fans of Just the Tips will get the answer: How many children has Gordon conceived on 4 Loko?

(5:16) In celebration of Pride month, George starts “shooting his shot” on Bruce, aggressively complimenting his “guns”.

(6:37) In the News: $RBRK earnings update and $RBRK investment banker “locker room talk”

(13:11) In the News: Georgie takes an $ORCL victory lap; Cathie Woods ́ “fluffing” the wrong tech CEO and missing out on a cool billion. Is Oracle a real public cloud player?

(18:23) At last, an e-mail where you can send nudes (and feedback, stock ideas, etc.) to the Stock Jocks! ([email protected]). Gordon is ready to provide your much needed feedback on that summer bod! Gordon would like it known he doesn't accept e-service from family court lawyers at this address!

(19:41) The main event: Nutanix, breakfast of champion investors, or Nutty floater in the bowl? Bruce, with a little help from George, explains what Hyperconverged Infrastructure (HCI) is and its benefits to managers and owners of IT infrastructure.

(22:29) Bruce title ́s his bull case, “Mutanix”, cementing why he never became a comedy writer. Real talk about Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtle Michelangelo ́s pioneering cannabis advocacy and his drunken attempts to find and fertilize April O ́Neil ́s egg nest. (Side note: April was clearly Bruce ́s childhood, cartoon “Hauk Tau” girl...as evidenced by the “TMNT Boner Jams ́97” VHS tape on the bookshelf over his shoulder.)

(27:21) Three reasons Bruce thinks Nutanix is “inflecting”: 1) Massive dislocation from Broadcom ́s ($AVGO) acquisition of VMWare; 2) Dell selling direct and Nutanix disaggregating its hypervisor for separate sale from its HCI offering; 3) strong forecasted growth for the HCI Market.

(41:38) Gordon kicks off his deeply insightful Bear Case: “Nutanix: Bustin ́a Nut!” Featuring AI-generated cereal box art to help inspire Nutanix ́s marketing department.

(49:57) Reddit “Glory Hole” checks on Nutanix leave a burning sensation in Gordon ́s investing “divining rod.”

(51:56) Say it ain ́t so, Northland! Nutanix catches a downgrade.

(59:11) Concluding thoughts, our “real” opinions.

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In Episode 5 (recorded May 19, 2024), the Stock Jocks give their customary bull/bear treatment to recent IPO and data security specialist Rubrik ($RBRK). Bruce takes his turn as moderator as Gordon makes the case that the stock is just too cheap on the likely 30%+ growth, even accounting for a cash burn not entirely unlike Gordon’s on a number of wistfully remembered nights in Miami. George points to a host of metrics heading in the wrong direction, including sales force efficiency.

(3:41) The return of Keith Gill (“Roaring Kitty”) and Gordon’s “colorful” analogy for trading “meme” stocks (like $GME and, arguably, $DJT)

(7:46) Gordon has the dark realization that he trades like Tommy Tuberville; why does the senior senator from Alabama have long-dated puts on Lattice Semiconductor ($LSCC)?

(9:54) Observations from software and cloud earnings season (mentions of Episode 3 topic $DOCN, $ORCL, $AMZN, $GOOGL, $MSFT)

(12:29) Obligatory interest rate/inflation discussion (good time for a pee break)

(14:53) GPT-40 and implications for customer service and sex robot industries

(20:46) The Main Event: Rubrik. Gordon leads an overview of the company; “ Backup with Ransomware protection focused on Cloud”

(40:36) Valuation deep dive

(49:49) Introducing: the Just the Tips “Quant” Department (Nerds!)

(1:05:30) George kicks off the Bear Case

(1:09:13) $RBRK’s “installed base” advantage vs. peers; is growth not as strong as advertised?

(1:18:20) Why George think’s $RBRK’s S-1 “Subscription ARR Contribution Margin” is spurious.

(1:21:02) George does some serious ‘rithmetic to highlight increasingly weak new customer ARR growth despite increasing spend. Is $RBRK’s “new customer engine” broken?

(1:39:24) Bruce declares a “winner” / “besties” give their “real” opinions.