Just the Tips (by the Stock Jocks)

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In our inaugural “Just the Tips” podcast (recorded 2/25/2024), three Wall Street and tech industry veterans (George, Gordon, and Bruce – “stage names” to protect the “innocent”) as they share their candid (and irreverent) takes on tech stocks. Periodically (as often as we can -- we have day jobs!) we will make the bear and bull case for a tech stock. Our first “victim” is Supermicro ($SMCI – “Super Duper Micro!”)

In this episode, we address:

• The emotional rewards of losing money (generating “alpha”!) on shorts
• Palo Alto Networks ($PANW) and implications for their recent bed defecation
• NVDA blowout, the smell of Jensen Huang’s jacket, and implications for interest rates
• West Coast vs. East Coast Investing, FOMO and Momentum investing
• The highly motivating impact of CEO packages designed to make the CEO filthy rich (the Hock Tan plan)
• How big will the Artificial Intelligence (AI) investment cycle be? Is it just for generating Podcast thumbnail graphics?
• Are “servers” a commodity – or not?

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The Stock Jocks look back on the stocks featured in their first 10 episodes ($SMCI, $NET, $DOCN, $LULU, $RBRK, $NTNX, $SHOP, $ON, $CRWD, $TWLO). To the shock of all, Gordon takes the first Just the Tips stock-picking crown based on his prescient insight that $SMCI is trash.

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The Stock Jocks give their bull/bear treatment to cloud communications specialist (and beleaguered stock) Twilio ($TWLO), with Gordon hosting once again, George donning the bull horns, and Bruce playing the bear. In our news segment, we hit a number of topics, including the implications of the coming election, ASML's premature (and disappointing) earnings release, and the set up into Q3 earnings. $ASML, $TSMC, $INTC, $TSLA, $SMCI, $NVDA

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In Episode 9 (recorded September 12, 2024), the Stock Jocks give their bull/bear treatment to security powerhouse Crowdstrike ($CRWD), purveyor of the Falcon platform (hence the episode title, “Flipping the Bird”. So clever and on-brand!) We begin with a heartfelt apology from Gordon on behalf of the team for the month-long delay in the editing room; technical issues nearly killed this gem of an episode but we managed to salvage it through many hours of tedious effort. Gordon hosts, Bruce puts on his bull horns, and George puts on his “other” bear suit (not the one he gets defensive about when asked.) Was the “Blue Screen of Death” debacle a buying opportunity, or likely to result in further blues for investors? Listen and find out!

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In Episode 8 (recorded August 11, 2024), the Stock Jocks give their bull/bear treatment power semiconductor specialist Onsemi ($ON). Bull Gordon gets into a virtual “sword fight” with co-host George, who puts on his bear suit (very much unlike the one he dons in his basement on the weekends.) We of course also recap $SMCI earnings and implications for $NVDA. George would like us to advise listeners that this episode has some particularly “naughty” comments and is hopeful that his mother won’t listen (and give us 1 star!) You’ve been warned! Gordon would like everyone to know he thinks George is being a weenie. Compliments / complaints / nudes: [email protected]

Highlights:

(2:44) Obligatory take on the shifting sands of our Idiocracy / recent changes to political landscape for investors

(4:18) George pontificates on why recent market volatility is overdone; the Jocks debate the current state of the macro and the finer points of the “Sahm rule” for calling a recession

(10:49) $SMCI earnings (did anyone get the plates on the truck that hit those margins?) and implications for AI demand and $NVDA (on its road, per Bruce, to $10 trillion in market cap)

(18:44) Bruce floats a new income idea for unemployed Gordon: fraudulent invoices to the Mag 7! And why Gordon will never have $100 million dollars (hint: it’s a “naughty” reason!)

(19:58) George takes a brief victory lap on $SHOP (the topic of our last episode!)

(21:57) The Main Event: $ON is giving Gordon a semi! Company overview, and how Onsemi is like He-man (and Orko’s incomparable legacy as a “submissive”)

(32:25) Recent financial performance and outlook

(38:36) What might have been: May 2023 analyst day projections vs Street

(39:26) DA COMPS!

(42:05) George kicks off the bear case. A falling knife? Timing is everything. Host Bruce makes early deductions for style.

(49:29) George argues that cars (a key end market for Onsemi) is a market that is challenged by extending replacement cycles near-term and will be decimated by robotaxis in the long term.

(1:03:25) Stock Jocks “open their kimonos” and reveal their “real” opinions.