JSE delisting; can we spot them in advance and profit? (#597)

Jerome Powell's Statement:

• Rates left unchanged in the US.
• Possible rate cuts on the table for September.
• US MPC meeting on 19 September.
• Data needed: improving inflation and higher unemployment.

Oil and Gold Market Update:

• Brent Crude:
  • Under pressure, signaling weak global demand.
  • Lower highs trend since June 2022.
  • Support at $72.50 and resistance around $88.
• Brent Oil | 01 August 2024
• Gold:
  • Trading near all-time highs.
  • Strong central bank buying.
  • Uncertain targets, but bullish sentiment persists.

Gold | 01 August 2024

Potential JSE Delistings:

• Criteria: Dividend yield > 0, market cap < 5 billion ZAR, NAV price > 100, P/E < 10, and profitable.
• Initial search yielded 53 stocks, refined criteria (dividend yield > 5%) narrowed it down to 25.
• Top candidates: African Media Entertainment, Argent, Combined Motor Holdings*, eMedia, Frontier Transport, Home Choice, Mustek, PrimeServe, Transpaco.

Shoprite*:

• Trading at all-time highs.
• 12% revenue increase, 6.3% like-for-like growth, 5.8% inflation.
• Successful new store formats (PetScience, Checkers Outdoor, UNIQ Clothing, Little Me).

Woolies:

• Disappointing trading statement.
• Comparable store sales up 6.9%, inflation at 7%, volume decline.
• Heps down 14-19%, market expectation miss.

RSA Retail Bonds Update:

• New Rates: Two-year at 8.75%, three-year at 9%, five-year at 10.25%.
• Rates have been declining since June.

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

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