Nate Silver on Harris-Trump Odds, 538’s “Broken” Model, and Why He Doesn’t Like Politics

09/26/24 • 33 min

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With less than six weeks until Election Day, host Brian Stelter discusses the historically close race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump with Nate Silver, the renowned polling expert, statistician, and author of the “Silver Bulletin” Substack newsletter. Silver breaks down the latest numbers in swing states, warns against rapidly shifting media narratives, expresses frustration with his former site, and details the community of risk-takers at the center of his new book, "On the Edge."

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Previous Episode

America Has a Problem With Political Violence—And It's a Growing One

Host Brian Stelter is joined by Barbara F. Walter, an expert on violent extremism and domestic terror, to examine what exactly political violence is and why it’s becoming more common, including factors that may have been at play in the two recent assassination attempts. Walter, a professor at the University of California, San Diego and the author of How Civil Wars Start: And How to Stop Them, tells Stelter there’s a cancer growing in America because a subset of the population doesn’t think democracy serves them anymore.

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Next Episode

James Carville on Ramping Up the Harris Ground Game and Defeating Trump

James Carville is not known for mincing words. Back in 2021, the legendary Democratic strategist ruffled quite a few feathers when he blamed “wokeness” for the party’s electoral defeats. He still hasn’t backed down from that belief—but he’s also willing to accept that Kamala Harris has a lot more to worry about than safe spaces and language policing when it comes to trouncing Donald Trump. One challenge in particular, he tells Brian Stelter on the latest episode of Inside the Hive, is presenting herself a bold persona with a bright new vision in a period of Trump-era malaise. "I think the best construct for her is ‘fresh versus stale,'" Carville says of Harris. "I've said the most thunderous sound in all of politics is the sound of a turning page."

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