In Focus by The Hindu

On March 10th, India signed a free trade agreement with a group of four European nations, committing to reduce tariffs. In return, India would receive $100 billion in investments over the next 15 years. The non-EU bloc, known as the European Free Trade Association, consists of Switzerland, Norway, Iceland and Liechtenstein. This agreement has come on the back of protracted negotiations of 21 rounds spread over 16 years. While the balance of trade heavily favors the EFTA, with India importing about $22 billion in 2023 from the bloc, India exported only about $3 billion to the bloc. While India hopes to attract investments in railways, the financial sector and automobiles, it is expecting a growth in exports of pharma products, garments, chemicals and machinery to the EFTA.

This pact comes just two years after India signed similar agreements with the United Arab Emirates and Australia, but such free trade deals have not largely helped India's export growth. In fact, it has generally been more beneficial to the other nations or blocks who have signed such deals with India. For instance, India's 2011 comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement with Japan enabled Japan to double its exports to more than $16 billion in 2023 from $8 billion in 2011. On the other hand, India's exports to Japan remained static at $5.46 billion in 2023, a tad up from $5.09 billion in 2011. This mirrors other trade pacts like the one signed with the 10-member Southeast Asian block, the ASEAN in 2010. In 2022-23, India exported goods worth about $44 billion to the region, while its imports were valued at $87 billion. The trade deficit in 2022-23 was $43 billion compared with $7.5 billion in 2010.

Why is India then entering into more such agreements? How different is the EFTA from those signed with other nations and blocs? And are such deals a substitute to larger WTO led trade frameworks, where India tends to have a larger say because of the backing of other developing nations.

Guest: Professor Dinesh Abrol, retired professor at the Institute for Studies in industrial development.

Host: Kunal Shankar, Deputy Business Editor, The Hindu.

Edited by Sharmada Venkatasubramanian.

After winning ten matches on the trot, India could not win one more and bring home the World Cup. It started the final as favourites, but things did not go according to the expectations that fans had built up over one month of pure magic.

So, what went wrong for India? Was the match lost with the toss itself? Was Australia too good on the day? Or did India make mistakes? If it did, what were they, and what are the positives we can take away from this tournament?

The India Employment Report 2024, released recently by the International Labour Organisation (ILO), paints a grim picture. The news is particularly bad on two critical counts: joblessness is particularly high among the youth, and its worse for the educated youth. According to the report, India’s youth account for 83% of the unemployed workforce, with the share of the educated youth among the total unemployed doubling - from 35.2% in 2000 to 65.7% in 2022.

Among other things, the report also flags a reversal of the expected transition of the workforce from agriculture to non-farm sector, and says that India’s female labour force participation rate (LFPR) declined by 14.4 percentage points between 2000 and 2019.

What does all this mean for India’s ‘demographic dividend’ that people keep talking about? Why are 82% of the workforce in the informal sector, with nearly 90% informally employed? And why is the share of manufacturing in employment stagnating at 12-14%?

Guest: Professor Ravi Srivastava, Director, Centre for Employment Studies, at the Institute for Human Development, New Delhi.

Host: G. Sampath, Social Affairs Editor, The Hindu.

Edited by Sharmada Venkatasubramanian.

Earlier this month, the Bihar government published the ‘Bihar Caste-based Survey 2022’. The survey data showed that extremely backward classes (EBCs) and other backward classes (OBCs) together made up nearly 63% of the 13-crore population, making them the largest caste group in the State.

The Congress has made a demand for a caste survey a core element of its poll campaign in the forthcoming assembly elections, and the INDIA alliance is likely to do the same in the 2024 general elections as well.

So, what does the data of the Bihar caste survey reveal? Is the caste survey only about removing the existing caps on reservations? Is it likely that a Mandal 2.0 moment will emerge in opposition to ‘Kamandal’ politics?

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) had granted a bailout of $3 billion to Sri Lanka in March this year. The IMF had imposed nine conditions for agreeing to the bailout. Next month, the global lender will conduct its first review -- before the next tranche of funds under the bailout are released.

What are the conditions that Sri Lanka has to fulfil? What has been the public response to the austerity measures that the government has had to initiate? And what success has Sri Lanka had in restructuring its bilateral debt, especially with lenders such as China?