Harvest of Mars: History and War

"Moltke is not a general to copy but to study"
- J.F.C. Fuller
In this episode we look at Helmuth von Moltke (the Elder), the Prussian Chief of the Prussian General Staff most noted for the dramatic Prussian victories over Austria and France which led to the foundation of Germany in 1871. Most historians will casually acknowledge him as a brilliant military figure and attribute the dramatic rise of Prussia military prowess to his leadership. Not wrong, but not quite right. Moltke was not a battlefield commander and did not even issue direct orders at the battles the history books credit him for winning. So, we are talking about a system here, an operation which could win battles and change the course of military history without the need for or the personal intervention of a genius. Moltke was representative of a breakthrough in military thinking, organization, and efficiency carried out by what was an obscure group of professionals dedicated to such matters known as the Prussian General Staff. That every modern major military has a General Staff is a testament to Moltke’s historical importance.

“The guerrilla wins if he does not lose.”
– Henry Kissinger

In this episode we update a classic article written by Andrew Mack back in 1975. As I feel strongly enough that a 50-year-old article is worth re-investigating and much of this analysis is based on Mack’s original conclusions, I highly recommend you read the original which is easily available in digital format. Its full title is “Why Big Nations Lose Small Wars: The Politics of Asymmetric Conflict” and it appeared in the journal World Politics, Volume 27.

How do massively outnumbered, outgunned, out-trained, and out-supplied guerillas sustain themselves in the field indefinitely? What explains the paradox that even though the big nations win the key battles, such as the US with the Tet Offensive and the French in Algiers, they nevertheless find themselves in a weaker strategic position? Would the outcomes have been different if the civilian leaderships did not tie the hands of their militaries? These are rabbit holes that have some unsettling implications.

“There is a story, no doubt apocryphal, that gamers at the Naval War College in Newport, Rhode Island, have many times replayed the 1942 Battle of Midway - but have never been able to produce an American victory.”
– Taken from historian Robert Cowley’s book What If?

“Find better gamers.”
– My response.

In this episode, we look at the celebrated Battle of Midway, in which US naval forces decisively defeated the Imperial Japanese Navy. The prevailing narrative, as portrayed in two Hollywood films, was the plucky and outnumbered Americans were the beneficiaries of good fortune. A deeper analysis reveals that the two sides were almost dead equal in the most important weapons system, carrier aircraft, and the United States had numerous advantages stemming from its massive industrial base. Japan did not lose because it was unlucky or was the victim of an unfortunate confluence of events. The battle itself reveals many of the factors that the United States possessed over Japan in the capacity to wage total war.

“When America had defeated Japan by detonating an atomic bomb, the Führer had sent a V-3 rocket to explode in the skies of New York to prove he could retaliate in kind if struck. After that, the war had dwindled to ... a nuclear stalemate the diplomats called the cold war.”

Robert Harris, from the novel Fatherland.

In this episode we continue to look at one of the most common “What If?” questions in history: the plausibility of the Axis powers (specifically Germany) winning the Second World War. Also, probably the most complicated. In the first part, we looked at historical patterns and the major factors that greatly favored the Allies. Nevertheless, Germany seemed to be in a good position by the Autumn of 1940, even if it was defeated in the Battle of Britain. The British Empire's position in the Mediterranean and the Middle East seemed vulnerable, the Soviet Union was still collaborating with Nazi Germany, and the United States was still neutral. We pick up the story here and explore possible alternative paths history might have taken. We try to stay true to the historical circumstances and key factors that weighed on leaders and decision makers that made the events of WWII unfold as it did. While the obstacles of an Axis powers seem daunting, maybe there was an alternative path Germany and Japan could have taken for a different outcome.