Previewing India's 2024 General Election
04/17/24 • 49 min
In just a few days, India’s eighteenth general elections will get underway with voting in the first phase kicking off on April 19. Between April 19 and June 1, India will have seven separate polling days culminating in a final counting of votes on June 4.
Every single pre-election survey to date shows the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) alliance of Prime Minister Narendra Modi winning a comfortable majority of seats in the Lok Sabha. If these predictions come to fruition, it would be the first time that a party has won three consecutive elections under the same leader since Congress during the Nehru period.
To preview these elections—and what they mean for India’s future—Milan is joined on the show this week by Sukumar Ranganathan, editor-in-chief of the Hindustan Times. Few people in India have observed and analyzed politics, economics, and social change as comprehensively as Sukumar.
Milan and Sukumar discuss the issues animating voters this election, the state of the economy, and the significant expansion of the BJP coalition. Plus, the two discuss the opposition’s struggles, the BJP’s big push in the southern states, and what we know about the agenda for Modi 3.0.
Episode notes:
1. Milan Vaishnav, “On electoral bonds, a short-lived celebration,” Hindustan Times, February 17, 2024.
2. “Decoding the Indian Economy (with Pranjul Bhandari)” Grand Tamasha, April 3, 2024.
3. Sukumar Ranganathan, “Five Things with @HT_Ed,” Hindustan Times (newsletter).
4. Hindustan Times, General Elections Retrospective (accessed via the HT app).
In just a few days, India’s eighteenth general elections will get underway with voting in the first phase kicking off on April 19. Between April 19 and June 1, India will have seven separate polling days culminating in a final counting of votes on June 4.
Every single pre-election survey to date shows the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) alliance of Prime Minister Narendra Modi winning a comfortable majority of seats in the Lok Sabha. If these predictions come to fruition, it would be the first time that a party has won three consecutive elections under the same leader since Congress during the Nehru period.
To preview these elections—and what they mean for India’s future—Milan is joined on the show this week by Sukumar Ranganathan, editor-in-chief of the Hindustan Times. Few people in India have observed and analyzed politics, economics, and social change as comprehensively as Sukumar.
Milan and Sukumar discuss the issues animating voters this election, the state of the economy, and the significant expansion of the BJP coalition. Plus, the two discuss the opposition’s struggles, the BJP’s big push in the southern states, and what we know about the agenda for Modi 3.0.
Episode notes:
1. Milan Vaishnav, “On electoral bonds, a short-lived celebration,” Hindustan Times, February 17, 2024.
2. “Decoding the Indian Economy (with Pranjul Bhandari)” Grand Tamasha, April 3, 2024.
3. Sukumar Ranganathan, “Five Things with @HT_Ed,” Hindustan Times (newsletter).
4. Hindustan Times, General Elections Retrospective (accessed via the HT app).
Previous Episode
Is India Ready to Launch?
On March 11, the Indian Defense Research and Development Organization conducted the maiden test of its Agni-V MIRV (Multiple Independently Targetable Re-Entry Vehicle) missile. MIRV capability is a complex technology and there are only a handful of countries that have developed it.
The test represents a breakthrough for India’s missile program but it’s also prompted warnings of a new arms race in the Indo-Pacific, a region already marked by sharpening geopolitical rivalries. To discuss India’s missile program, its defense posture, and its emerging space policy, Milan is joined on the show this week by Ankit Panda. Ankit is the Stanton Senior Fellow in the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. He’s an expert on the Asia-Pacific region and his work encompasses nuclear strategy, arms control, missile defense, nonproliferation, and emerging technologies.
Ankit and Milan discuss the significance of India’s MIRV test and the new “missile age” in the Indo-Pacific. Plus, the two discuss the China-India-Pakistan triangle, the importance of India’s 2019 anti-satellite test, and the future of India’s space policy.
Episode notes:
1. Ankit Panda, Indo-Pacific Missile Arsenals: Avoiding Spirals and Mitigating Escalation Risks (Washington, D.C.: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2023).
2. “Southern Asia's Nuclear Future with Ashley J. Tellis,” Grand Tamasha, October 26, 2022.
3. Ankit Panda, “The Indo-Pacific’s new missile age demands Washington’s attention,” Breaking Defense, November 16, 2023.
4. Ankit Panda, “How India’s breakthrough as an ‘elite space power’ devalues discovery and innovation,” South China Morning Post, April 7, 2019.
5. Alex Travelli, “The Surprising Striver in the World’s Space Business,” New York Times, July 4, 2023.
6. Toby Dalton et al., “Dimming Prospects for U.S.-Russia Nonproliferation Cooperation,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, March 14, 2024.
Next Episode
The Great Indian Poverty—and Inequality—Debate
As India heads to the polls, a new chapter is being written in a very old debate about poverty and inequality in India. This debate has been stirred up by the release of new data from a government-sponsored consumption survey, which some have argued shows a massive decline in poverty in India. Others believe that this data are not so unequivocal and point to a widening gap between top income-earners and ordinary Indians.
To make sense of this debate, Milan is joined on the show this week by Maitreesh Ghatak. Maitreesh is a professor of economics at the London School of Economics, where he has been the director of the Development Economics Group at the research centre, STICERD, since 2005. He is a widely respected voice on India’s economic development and has been especially focused, in recent years, on questions of growth, poverty, and inequality.
Milan and Maitreesh discuss the government’s recent consumption survey, contested claims that India has eliminated extreme poverty, and recent inequality trends. Plus, the two discuss the overall health of the macro-economy and the state of India’s statistical system.
Episode notes:
1. Maitreesh Ghatak and Rishabh Kumar, “Poverty in India Over the Last Decade: Data, Debates, and Doubts,” The India Forum, April 10, 2024.
2. Maitreesh Ghatak, “The rise of the affluent is the real India growth story,” Hindustan Times, February 29, 2024.
3. Maitreesh Ghatak, “The simmering debate over poverty rate,” Mint, May 4, 2023.
4. Maitreesh Ghatak, Ramya Raghavan, and Linchuan Xu, “Trends in Economic Inequality in India,” The India Forum, September 19, 2022.
5. Maitreesh Ghatak, “India’s Inequality Problem,” The India Forum, June 23, 2021.
6. “The Crisis in India’s Economic Data (with Pramit Bhattacharya),” Grand Tamasha, February 12, 2020.
7. “Decoding the Indian Economy (with Pranjul Bhandari),” Grand Tamasha, April 3, 2024.
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