Global Data Pod Weekender: Technically speaking

07/29/22 • 17 min

The US contracted again last quarter, while the Euro area bounced more than expected. Central to our call that the US avoids recession is that businesses keep hiring (claims remain below 275k). However, we now see the Euro area slipping into a mild recession later this year. Both the Fed and ECB to keep hiking, though growth risks are making them more data-dependent.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

Previous Episode

Global Data Pod Research Rap: Western Europe runs out of gas

Bruce Kasman is joined by Joe Lupton, Malcolm Barr, and Raphael Brun-Aguerre to discuss our recent forecast revisions which sees Western Europe sliding into recession during 2H22.

Speakers

Bruce Kasman, Economic and Policy Research

Joseph Lupton, Economic and Policy Research

Malcolm Barr, Economic and Policy Research

Raphael Brun-Aguerre, Economic and Policy Research

This podcast was recorded on July 27, 2022.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4155520-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Next Episode

Global Data Pod Research Rap: A phase of inflation divergence

Nora Szentivanyi is joined by Raphael Brun-Aguerre and Daniel Silver to discuss our inflation forecasts that see Euro area inflation remaining elevated in 2H22 in contrast to significant moderation in the US and many EM economies. High inflation, boosted by surging natural gas prices, plays a key role in our forecast for Western Europe to slide into a mild recession in 2H22 whereas easing commodity price inflation should boost household purchasing power elsewhere.

The July CPI reports likely mark the beginning of this phase of inflation divergence that also augurs a rotation toward weaker relative European growth. We now expect Euro area inflation to remain at a 9%ar this quarter, boosted significantly by upward pressure on energy and food prices. At the same time, we are expecting a large drop in US CPI energy to lower headline gains to 0.2-0.3%m/m. A moderation in food price pressures should be significant in holding EM CPI gains to 0.3-0.4%m/m in coming months‐‐half their average rate of increase in 1H22.

This podcast was recorded on August 3, 2022.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4157249-0 , www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4161891-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.