Geopolitics Decanted by Silverado

Dmitri Alperovitch discusses the impact of Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian military facilities and logistics in Crimea with Michael Kofman (Research Program Director in the Russia Studies Program at the Center for Naval Analysis). And Dmitri's theory on the Russian masterplan for Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant

Topics covered:

• $10,000 Chinese UAVs are Ukraine's new asymmetric weapon in the war of attrition in Ukraine
• Russia's plan for Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant
• Ukrainian planned counteroffensives and the state of Russian progress in the Donbas
• Why is Moscow changing commanders in this war every few months?
• Effects of Russian shadow mobilization campaign on current war and long-term force structure
• Russian artillery ammo stocks
• Russian attempts to rebuild Infantry Fighting Vehicle (IFV) inventory

Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Retired UK Air Marshall Greg Bagwell, former Deputy Commander of Operations at RAF Air Command, about how the West can provide Ukraine with modern aircraft platforms such as F-16s.

Topics covered:

• Why F-16 is one of the best planes to provide to Ukraine today
• How to transport planes into Ukraine without triggering Russian retaliation
• How Ukraine pilots can be trained within weeks on the basic missions most needed for current phase of the war
• How to quickly train and assist remotely the ground crews that will maintain the fleet
• How Ukraine can be helped in repair and replacement of parts for the planes
• What munitions can be provided for the missions to be undertaken
• What options exist for helicopter aid

Dmitri Alperovitch talks with energy markets and russian oil and gas sector expert Sergey Vakulenko (formerly with Gazprom Neft, Royal Dutch Shell and IHS Markit) about how Russia is engineering an energy crisis in Europe, with spillover effects all over the world.

Topics covered:

• When it comes to gas, who needs whom more: Russia or Europe?
• What are Europe's options to survive the winter without Russian gas? Which countries will be most affected?
• What game is Russia playing by cutting Nord Stream 1 flows?
• Why are Poland, Finland and Bulgaria cutoff from direct purchases of Russian gas while others like Germany are still buying?
• How long would it take to build a pipeline from the Russian gas fields in the West to China to remove dependence on European customers?
• Can Russia continue to operate and maintain old wells and drill new ones without Western servicing firms?
• What is the impact of Russian gas cutoffs on fertilizer production and global food supplies?
• How much is it hurting Russia to sell oil at substantial discount to China and India?

Follow the speakers on Twitter @DAlperovitch, @SergeyVakulenk0