Gambling With an Edge - Gambling With an Edge - guest Matt of PlusEVanalytics.

Gambling With an Edge - guest Matt of PlusEVanalytics.

10/01/20 • 58 min

Our guest this week is Matt from http://www.plusevanalytics.com. He is a Canadian actuary who also dabbles in advantage play. We discuss Taleb's concept of anti-fragility and how that is very useful in sports betting. We also discuss how the Kelly Criterion comes up with different answers sometimes and how are we to know which is which? We welcome your questions - send them to us at [email protected], or you can find me at @RWM21 on Twitter or https://www.facebook.com/GamblingWithAnEdge. podcast Click to listen - Alt click to download Show Notes [00:00] Introduction of Matt from PlusEVAnalytics.com [00:50] Show notes information and availability [02:36] The best forum for site comments and feedback is at GamblingWithAnEdge.com [03:21] Actuarial science as a profession [05:40] Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Twitter.com/nntaleb [11:14] NFL season totals and antifragility [15:45] Dow Jones and antifragility [17:36] PointsBet.com and distributional mathematics [24:46] Super Bowl prop bets, Michael Shackleford, and market efficiency [30:35] Sportsbook hold versus roulette hold, epistemic uncertainty and adverse selection [39:19] South Point Casino October Promotions - 'Free Play with a Kicker' [39:59] Predictit.org/promo/edge - place small bets on various political outcomes, $20 deposit match for GWAE listeners [40:40] BlackjackApprenticeship.com - card counting training site and community [41;02] VideoPoker.com/gwae - Gold Membership offers correction on most games [41:57] Kelly Criterion [45:49] Being both an actuary and a gambler [53:10] How can listeners contact Matt? [56:03] Recommended - Schitt's Creek on Netflix, Captain Jack Andrews on Youtube and Twitter Sponsored Links: SouthPointCasino.com Predictit.org/promo/edge BlackjackApprenticeship.com VideoPoker.com/gwae Guest Links: PlusEVAnalytics.com Twitter.com/PlusEVAnalytics PlusEVAnalytics.wordpress.com/publications Recommended: Schitt's Creek, Netflix.com/title/80036165 Captain Jack Andrews, Youtube.com/CaptainJackAndrews/videos, Twitter.com/capjack2000
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Previous Episode

Gambling With an Edge - guest Jason Pipkin

Our guest this week is Jason Pipkin. Jason is a neuroscientist who gambles semi-professionally on elections at predictit.org. We welcome your questions - send them to us at [email protected], or you can find me at @RWM21 on Twitter or https://www.facebook.com/GamblingWithAnEdge. podcast Click to listen - Alt click to download Show Notes [00:00] Introduction of Jason Pipkin, frequent bettor at Predictit.org[00:58] How did Jason get started on Predictit.org?[02:48] Jason's background and predictingpolitics.com[04:30] Commissions and contract limits[10:26] Biden and Trump double max contract example[12:35] Liquidity and market efficiency[14:35] Can personal political biases affect profitability?[16:04] Arbitrage[17:38] Trading frequency[18:45] Volatility[20:16] Holding periods and exit strategy[21:28] Black swan betting[23:08] 2016 Presidential election market strategies[24:42] FiveThirtyEight.com[25:48] Computer analysis and modeling[26:59] Predictit.org market forums[28:40] What percentage of bettors in political markets are profitable?[31:24] Straddles[32:47] Determinants of volatility[36:12] Foreign elections[38:30] South Point Casino September Promotions - $500,000 Guaranteed Money Madness[39:22] Predictit.org/promo/edge - place small bets on various political events[39:55] BlackjackApprenticeship.com - card counting training site and community[40:25] VideoPoker.com/gwae - Gold Membership offers corrections on most games[41:47] Market suggestions[43:20] Similarities to options trading[45:24] Holding contracts until expiry[48:39] How can listeners contact Jason?[49:10] Discussing gambling in personal relationships[50:28] Recommended - MyNoise.net Sponsored Links:SouthPointCasino.comPredictit.org/promo/edgeBlackjackApprenticeship.comVideoPoker.com/gwae Jason's Links:PredictingPolitics.comTwitter.com/jipkin Recommended:MyNoise.net .
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Next Episode

Gambling With an Edge - guest author Peter Alson

Our guest this week is author Peter Alson. Peter returns to our show to discuss his book, "The Vig: Confessions of an Ivy League Bookie." The book concerns working in a New York bookmaking operation in the early 1990s. Both Bob and I enjoyed and recommend you read the book We welcome your questions - send them to us at [email protected], or you can find me at @RWM21 on Twitter or https://www.facebook.com/GamblingWithAnEdge. podcast Click to listen - Alt click to download Show Notes [00:00] Introduction of Peter Alston, author of The Vig (originally published as Confessions of an Ivy League Bookie)[00:32] Republishing The Vig[04:02] How did Peter become a bookmaker?[06:44] Prologue of The Vig[09:36] Spanky[12:41] Degenerates working in the bookie's office[15:57] The era of bookmaking without computers[20:01] Paying customers and collecting debts[21:00] Mob involvement in bookmaking[23:04] Billie Walters and other sharp players[26:04] Office dynamics with a female employee[28:25] Calculating commission on recruited players[33:14] South Point Casino October Promotions - Free Play with a Kicker[33:51] Predictit.org/promo/edge - place small bets on various political events, $20 deposit match for GWAE listeners[34:19] VideoPoker.com/gwae - Gold Membership offers correction on most games, free Pro Membership trial for GWAE listeners[35:27] The original of the title The Vig[37:36] Life lessons from being a bookmaker[41:14] The aftermath of writing a book about former co-workers[43:58] Writing about dysfunctional relationships[49:21] How can listeners contact Peter?[50:40] Recommended: Amore Taste of Chicago restaurant, All American on Netflix, remembering Mike Sexton Peter Alson's links:PeterAlson.comFacebook.com/peter.alsonThe Only Way to Play It by Peter Alson https://amzn.to/2GLfOWrThe Vig by Peter Alson https://amzn.to/3jbCAFrThe Novice Twins: A Novel by Eden AlsonOne of a Kind: The Rise and Fall of Stuey Ungar by Nolan Dalla and Peter Alson https://amzn.to/3iHSKFoPeter's previous appearance on GWAE - LasVegasAdvisor.com/gambling-with-an-edge/podcast-guest-peter-alson Sponsored Links:SouthPointCasino.comPredictit.org/promo/edgeBlackjackApprenticeship.comVideoPoker.com/gwae Recommended:AmoreTasteofChicago.comAll-American - Netflix.com/title/81012998.
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