FX Talk - an Ebury podcast

November’s US presidential election is shaping up to be a highly important risk event for financial markets. Former president Trump has opened up a narrow lead in the latest opinion surveys, although most prediction models suggest that the outcome of the vote is far from set in stone.
But what could the result of the election mean for US domestic and foreign policy? How important could the composition of Congress be in the election? And what would both a Trump or Harris presidency mean for the US dollar and emerging market currencies? Our analysts give their thoughts on these questions and more in this US election special.

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2025 looks set to be another eventful year in financial markets. Focus among market participants will be largely on news out of the incoming Trump administration, particularly details surrounding the Republicans tariff proposals. The world’s major central banks will continue to lower interest rates, as inflation globally gradually returns back to target levels, while growing downside risks to growth could trigger a mild global slowdown.
But, what do our analysts see as the main focal point for investors this year? How could the global economy perform, and which currencies do we think will under- and outperform in 2025? Listen to this week’s FX Talk episode to find out!

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Without question, the only real talking point on investors' lips at present is the protectionist utterings emanating from the recently anointed Trump administration. Risk currencies sold-off sharply after Trump unveiled savage tariffs aimed at Canada, Mexico and China over the weekend, although these moves have since reversed after a number of the trade restrictions were delayed at the eleventh hour.
But, what do our analysts make of the headlines? Is Trump serious? Or are these tariff threats merely a negotiating ploy? And how could markets react to the imposition of trade restrictions on the European Union?

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The outlook for UK interest rates has been clouded once again this week by strong data on the labour market and inflation. The main inflation rate jumped to a 10-month high in January, while the core rate is now printing at nearly double the BoE’s 2% target. Could this herald a slower pace of rate reductions ahead? Or will the committee prioritise supporting Britain’s admittedly fragile growth outlook?
Elsewhere, European currencies have been buoyed by hopes of a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine. Yet, investors are skeptical that the negotiations will lead to anything more than a temporary pause in the conflict, which is acting to keep the rally in risk in check. Our analysts discuss all the latest developments and more in the latest episode of FX Talk.

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This week on episode 8 of FX Talk, our market analysts Matthew Ryan and Roman Ziruk discuss if the recent dramatic USD sell-off has gone too far and what's driving emerging market performance.

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