FX Talk - an Ebury podcast

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The main talking point has been the move below parity in EUR/USD for the first time since December 2002. The pair teetered on the brink of parity for a couple of sessions, before falling fairly comfortably below it on Thursday. A divergence in natural gas prices across the Atlantic was largely to blame for the move, with last week’s hotter-than-expected US inflation report enough to drive the pair through the key psychological level.

We have, however, seen a recovery in the euro since then, with EUR/USD moving back above the 1.02 level on rising bets in favour of a 50 basis point interest rate hike from the European Central Bank when it meets on Thursday.

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Time flies when you’re having fun. So, this is a good chance for us to look back on the first six months of the year, and talk about our main highlights in the FX market so far this year. We then look ahead, and talk about what we expect during the remainder of 2022.

The Swiss franc was the best performing currency in the G10 last week after the SNB shocked markets by announcing a 50 basis point interest rate hike - the consensus was for no change. The bank also changed its wording on the franc, no longer calling it ‘highly valued’ and saying that it would be prepared to intervene in the market on both sides.

Markets will have one eye on next Wednesday's FOMC meeting. The Fed is set to raise rates by another 50 basis points next week and signal more hikes are coming at upcoming meetings. This will be followed by the Bank of England’s latest policy decision on Thursday.

But we’re going to focus first on Thursday’s ECB announcement, which delivered a long awaited hawkish pivot. In the bank’s statement, it explicitly said that it would raise interest rates by 25 basis points at its July meeting, and follow this up with another one in September.

China finally signs of an easing in its zero-Covid policy. It boosted the CNY and risk currencies against the USD. We see an improvement in risk sentiment and also signs of a downtrend of US inflation. We also are noticing growing expectation among investors for a dovish pivot during the Fed meeting next week.
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