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Forward Guidance

Forward Guidance

Blockworks

The laws of macro investing are being re-written, and investors who fail to adapt to the rapidly changing monetary environment will struggle to keep pace. Felix Jauvin interviews the brightest minds in finance about which asset classes they think will thrive in the financial future that they envision.
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Top 10 Forward Guidance Episodes

Goodpods has curated a list of the 10 best Forward Guidance episodes, ranked by the number of listens and likes each episode have garnered from our listeners. If you are listening to Forward Guidance for the first time, there's no better place to start than with one of these standout episodes. If you are a fan of the show, vote for your favorite Forward Guidance episode by adding your comments to the episode page.

With the Fed set to hike interest rates yet again, Jack is lucky to speak to the ultimate Federal Reserve heavyweights: Nick Timiraos, chief economics corresopndent for The Wall Street Journal, and Joseph Wang, former senior trader for the New York Fed. Timiraos and Wang share what they will be watching for in the Powell presser on November 2nd, 2022, and discuss how resilient consumer balance sheets are making the Fed’s job even harder. Timiraos

Wang argues that Treasury buyback program would be effective in improving liquidity in U.S. government bonds, which is currently very weak, and Timiraos shares how he goes about picking a question to ask Fed Chair Jerome Powell.

Filmed on November 1, 2022, the first day of the meeting of the November Federal Open Market Committee. Stay tuned for an upcoming interview with Joseph Wang and Jim Bianco, which will be filmed after the Powell presser on November 2nd.

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Follow Nick Timiraos on Twitter https://twitter.com/NickTimiraos

Follow Joseph Wang on Twitter https://twitter.com/FedGuy12

Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv

Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki

Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj

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Joseph Wang’s book, “Central Banking 101”: https://www.amazon.com/Central-Banking-101-Joseph-Wang/dp/0999136747

Nick Timiraos’ book, “Trillion Dollar Triage: How Jay Powell And The Fed Battled A President And A Pandemic – And Prevented Economic Disaster”: https://www.littlebrown.com/titles/nick-timiraos/trillion-dollar-triage/9780316272810/

Nick Timiraos’ article: “Fed Meeting to Focus on Interest Rates’ Coming Path”: https://www.wsj.com/articles/fed-meeting-to-focus-on-interest-rates-coming-path-11667295181

Nick Timiraos’ article: “Cash-Rich Consumers Could Mean Higher Interest Rates for Longer”: https://www.wsj.com/articles/cash-rich-consumers-could-mean-higher-interest-rates-for-longer-11667075614

Joseph’s Wang piece, “The Money Still Flows”: https://fedguy.com/the-money-still-flows/

Joseph Wang’s piece on Treasury Buybacks (“Quantitative Buybacks”): https://fedguy.com/quantitative-buybacks/

______

Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:

https://rb.gy/5weeyw

Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos

Find out more about the Blockworks video editor role here: https://blockworks.co/careers/

______

Timestamps:

(00:00) Intro

(01:07) What To Look For In November FOMC Meeting

(11:06) The Consumer Balance Sheet Is Strong

(19:45) The Fed's Balance Sheet

(28:45 )Treasury Liquidity Is Very Weak"

(31:20) A Potential Treasury Buyback

(31:51) Will The Fed Adjust Its Inflation Target?

(46:37) Could The Fed Go From A 50 Basis Point Hike To A Halt In Hiking Rates?

(49:36) Asking A Question To Jerome Powell

(56:43 )Is The Drain on Banking Reserves Going To Force The Fed To Stop Reducing Its Balance Sheet?

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

______

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Forward Guidance - The Great Bond Bear Steepening | Alfonso Peccatiello
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10/03/23 • 97 min

On todays episode of Forward Guidance, Alfonso Peccatiello Founder & CEO of The Macro Compass joins the show for a discussion on the U.S bond market sell-off and it implications for broader markets, both domestically & internationally.

Weighing sentiment, risk/reward & economic signals, Alfonso assesses if the current sell-off is justified, or is the trend about to reverse and provide an attractive opportunity to go long bonds? To hear all this & much much more, you'll have to tune in!

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Sign up to The Macro Compass bond course & use the code "Macro20" for a 20% discount: https://www.themacrocompass.com/courses/#bond-market-course

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Follow Alfonso on Twitter: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf

Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96

Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance

Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

--

Timecodes:

(00:00) Introduction

(00:32) The Bond Market Sell-Off

(11:38) Testing Bond Market Sentiment

(21:16) What Could Go Wrong Being Long Bonds?

(27:37) Bond Market Term Premium

(35:05) The Best Risk/Reward Is Short Equities

(38:36) The Real Weakness Is In Europe

(46:28) The Dollar Wrecking Ball

(51:00) Understanding The Yield Curve: Bear Steepening

(54:58) Supply & Demand In The U.S Bond Market

(58:46) Bank Bond Buying & Interest Rate Hedging

(01:17:40) Bear Steepening During An Inverted Yield Curve

(01:23:16) Will Bonds Continue Selling Off Until Something Breaks?

(01:28:47) Are European Banks More Resilient Than U.S Banks, Or Not?

(01:35:00) The Macro Compass Bond Market Class & 20% Discount

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets

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Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and chief strategist of QI Research, returns to Forward Guidance to share her findings on the problems brewing in commercial real estate, the collapse in money supply (M2) growth, and her updated views on the auto and housing markets.

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Today's show is sponsored by Public.com: Get a 5.1% yield when you open a government-backed Treasury Account by going to https://public.com/forwardguidance

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Follow Danielle DiMartino Booth https://twitter.com/DiMartinoBooth

Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96

Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance

Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Intro

(04:33) "Deathly Silence" In Private Equity World

(16:13) "There Will Be A 'Mark-to-Market' Moment"

(19:31) Issues In Commercial Real Estate (CRE)

(21:47) Public ad

(22:50) Auto Loans Are In Distress

(30:36) The Residential Housing Market

(36:39) ill Inflation Fall?

(38:08) Fed Expects A Recession

(41:12) Money Growth Is Lowest Since Great Depression

(44:30) The Debt Ceiling

(51:09) The Bernanke Doctrine In Jeopardy? (QE whil rates are above zero)

(01:03:40) Quantitative Easing Is NOT Back, Says Danielle

(01:09:28) Closing Thoughts On Credit Crunch

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

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In the spring of 2020, the idea that the world would see persistent inflation was laughed at. No one is laughing now.

Vincent Deluard, head of global macro at StoneX, is one of the few macro analysts who foresaw this inflationary spiral to its full extent. He returns to Forward Guidance to explain how in the next leg of this inflationary saga, corporate profits will plummet as unemployment remains low and inflation fails to return to normal levels. Deluard shares several trade ideas and argues that the bear market has only just begun.

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Follow Vincent Deluard on Twitter https://twitter.com/VincentDeluard

Follow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96

Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/

--

Bit.com is a full-suite cryptocurrency exchange launched by Matrixport, an integrated financial services firm headquartered in Singapore. Since August 2020, Bit.com has been online supporting the spot, perpetual, futures, fixed income and options products, with a particular highlight being pioneers to launch BCH options. Bit.com is the second-largest in the BTC and ETH options market.

Call to action: For any further enquiry, please contact [email protected].

Sign up URL: https://bit.ly/3KlgLR3

App download URL: https://bit.ly/3xer6uI

--

(00:00) Introduction

(04:41) Reflecting On Inflation Projections

(19:35) The Reverse Wealth Effect

(24:05) Attributing Inflation As The Cause of Asset Prices Deflating

(29:20) Looking at Economic Trends

(35:02) Bit.com Ad

(35:32) Companies Investors Should Take Caution

(40:10) Financing Equity via IPOs and Specs

(42:50) Disruptions Caused By Millennial Lifestyle Companies

(46:50) Zombie Companies

(48:45) The Big Tech Companies

(53:17) Outlook on Inflation Over the Next Year

(59:00) Yields and the Eurocurve

(1:05:40) The Financial System Driving Behaviors

(1:09:00) Inflation In Other Countries

(1:14:20) The Five Inflation Trades

(1:20:30) Japan And the BOJ

(1:24:23) Vincent's Psychological Advice for the Market

(1:30:04) The Grasshopper Analogy

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

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Nick Glinsman, macro hedge fund manager and author at Intelligence Quarterly, joins Joseph Wang (“Fed Guy) and Jack Farley to explore whether the Federal Reserve is at all disturbed by the vicious sell-off in risk assets, or if the carnage in equities and credit is actually in service of its mandate to control stable prices.

Glinsman argues that the global economy is on the verge of a wage-price spiral for the first time in four decades, and the central bankers will be in no hurry to reverse course on their hawkish policy. Taking from his extensive experience working at some of the world’s most successful hedge funds, Glinsman warns viewers not to “slip on a banana skin” as they navigate the macro landscape. Joseph Wang’s message to the viewers banking on a “Powell Put” is even more stark: “wake the ____ up.”

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Nick Glinsman on Twitter https://twitter.com/nglinsman

Joseph Wang on Twitter https://twitter.com/FedGuy12

Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96

Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

Nick Glinsman's writings can be found at https://intelligencequarterly.com/.

Joseph Wang's writings can be found at https://fedguy.com/.

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Today’s episode is sponsored by Jack Farley, the host of Forward Guidance. If you would like to get in touch with Jack to potentially become a sponsor of Forward Guidance, you can email him at [email protected]. Serious inquiries only, please.

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(00:00) Introduction

(02:40) Banana Skins In This Market

(13:14) The Fall Of The "Transitory" Narrative

(23:30) The Wealth Effect in Reverse

(30:50) Ad

(36:07) Have Central Banks Lost Control?

(41:18) The Dollar and Bonds

(50:28) Bretton Woods III

(59:55) Inflationary Hikes

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

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Forward Guidance - Can Gold Withstand the Liquidity Drain? | Sean Fielder
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05/19/22 • 68 min

Sean Fielder, chief investment officer at Equinox Partners, joins Jack Farley to discuss his views on gold, mining, inflation, the and Federal Reserve’s continued tightening efforts, and the sell-off in long-duration tech stocks, diving into everything from ESG investing to a mine's lifecycle and lifestyle.

__

Follow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

--

Bit.com is a full-suite cryptocurrency exchange launched by Matrixport, an integrated financial services firm headquartered in Singapore. Since August 2020, Bit.com has been online supporting the spot, perpetual, futures, fixed income and options products, with a particular highlight being pioneers to launch BCH options. Bit.com is the second-largest in the BTC and ETH options market.

Call to action: For any further enquiry, please contact [email protected].

Sign up URL: https://bit.ly/3KlgLR3

App download URL: https://bit.ly/3xer6uI

--

(00:00) Intro

(02:26) Emerging Markets And The Dollar

(15:32) New Bretton Woods

(17:19) How Far Can The Fed Go?

(19:07) Is Gold An Inflation Hedge?

(26:36) Bit.com Ad

(27:06) Energy, Oil & Gas

(39:44) ESG Investing (Environmental, Societal, and Governance)

(46:08) Junior Gold Miners

(53:16) Common Problems That Junior Gold Mining Companies Have

(55:56) Jurisdictional Risk

(1:05:05) Lifecycle Of A Mine

(1:06:26) The Future Of Gold

--

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

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Forward Guidance - Are Bubbles Necessary? I Ronit Ghose
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12/23/22 • 14 min

On this episode of Forward Guidance, Jack is seated with Ronit Ghose of Citi Global Insights. Together they discuss the relationship of Macro and Crypto, the importance of market cycles, the unknown effect of Regulation, and much more.

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Follow Ronit Ghose on Twitter https://twitter.com/ronitA380

Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv

Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki

Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj

Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:

https://rb.gy/5weeyw

Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos

--

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(01:00) Attraction to Blockchain

(02:43) Learning from TradFi

(05:28) The Importance of Cycles

(07:43) Current Market Sentiment

(11:02) The Unknown effect of Regulation

(13:12) Macro and Crypto relation

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

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Ultra short-term Treasurys have rallied so much that the 1 month bill now yields over 150 basis points less than similar instruments at the Federal Reserve. Jeff Snider, chief strategist at Atlas Financial and host of Eurodollar University, joins Jack Farley to discuss.

Today's show is sponsored by Public.com: Get a 5.1% yield when you open a government-backed Treasury Account by going to https://public.com/forwardguidance

__

Follow Jeff Snider https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP

Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96

Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance

Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

__

Timestamps:

(00:00) Intro

(04:30) Money Is Getting Herded Into Highest Tier Of Collateral

(07:54) Liquidity Preference Is Extreme

(15:21) Treasurys Role In Banks' Asset & Liability Management

(18:47) Credit Crunch

(22:35) Public Ad

(23:39) Are The Bank Runs Over?

(30:42) Is The "Mild Recession" Forecast Plausible?

(33:57) How Many More Rate Hikes Does The Fed Have In The Chamber?

(35:41) The Fed's Efforts To Help The Banking System (BTFP, Discount Window, etc.)

(39:40) Were Rate Hikes To Blame For The Collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB)?

(43:08) Impact of Quantitative Easing (QE) On Bank Deposit Levels

(44:50) Was There "Money Printing" In 2020?

(47:42) Did The Banks Take Too Much Interest Rate Risk in 2020 & 2021?

(49:48) Defining "Deflationary Money"

(55:12) LIBOR Futures Will Be Phased Out, Right?

(56:37) Counterargument: Debt Ceiling Is The Reason Short-Term Treasury Bills Are Trading At Such A Premium

(01:02:32) Summary Of Jeff's Views On Credit Crunch & Deflationary Money

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Today’s interview is a deep-dive into commercial real estate (CRE), an asset class which includes office, multifamily housing (apartments), hotels, data centers, malls, and more.

Jack welcomes John Toohig, Head of Whole Loan Trading at Raymond James, Thomas LaSalvia, Head of Commercial Real Estate Economics at Moody's Analytics, and Victor Calanog, Manulife’s Managing Director & Global Head of Research and Strategy, Real Estate Private Markets, for a wide-ranging discussions on the challenges and opportunities within CRE, with a focus on how the recent interest rate shock has impacted property values, cash flows, interest expense, and other key metrics in the CRE world. Filmed on August 30, 2023.

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Follow John Toohig on Twitter https://twitter.com/RJWholeLoans

Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96

Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance

Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

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Follow “Let’s Talk Loans” on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7103476860633718784/

Follow Moody’s CRE Insights: https://cre.moodysanalytics.com/insights/

Moody’s CRE piece on CMBS Office Loan Maturity: https://cre.moodysanalytics.com/insights/cre-news/ma-cre-office-loan-maturity-monitor-office-payoffs-significantly-lag-other-property-types/

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Timecodes:

(00:00) Introduction

(08:15) Payment Shock For Real Estate Funded With Debt Before The Fed Raised Rates

(11:02 Maturity Defaults Are On The Rise

(13:25) Office Sector Is By Far Facing The Biggest Challenges Vs. Other CRE Compenents

(19:22) Who Owns The Equity In These CRE Deals?

(22:25) Gap Between Private Valuations and Public Valuations

(25:51) Higher For Longer Is Exponentially Increasing Debt Costs For Real Estate

(30:03) State Of The Secondary Market For Real Estate Loans

(35:14) Cash Flows Matter More Than "Loan-To-Value"

(40:08) There's A Hesitation Right Now For Institutions To Take Losses

(42:27) Odds Of A True Recessions vs. A "Slow-Cession" (and Soft Landing & No Landing)

(45:35) How Common Is Interest Rate Hedging Among Leveraged Real Estate Investors?

(48:01) Slowdown In New Originations For CRE Loans

(52:46) Fundamnetals Of Multifamily (Apartment Buildings)

(01:01:05) Negative Leverage In The MultiFamily Market

(01:07:31) Insurance Costs Are Skyrocketing

(01:10:54) Retail (example: Malls) And Hospitality (example: Hotels)

(01:16:45) China

(01:20:28) Closing Thoughts On U.S. Banking System

(01:22:52) Conclusion

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

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This debut episode is from our brand new podcast Market Depth hosted by Weston Nakamura. Follow Market Depth using the links below to stay up to date with the latest episodes!

Follow Market Depth On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3mVTs9U

Follow Market Depth On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/40dA2vm

Follow Market Depth On YouTube: http://bit.ly/3JKhw8I

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Follow Weston: https://twitter.com/acrossthespread

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/

--

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Market Depth or Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

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FAQ

How many episodes does Forward Guidance have?

Forward Guidance currently has 432 episodes available.

What topics does Forward Guidance cover?

The podcast is about News, Investing, Business News, Podcasts and Business.

What is the most popular episode on Forward Guidance?

The episode title 'Joseph Wang & Nick Timiraos: What You Need To Know For The November Fed Meeting' is the most popular.

What is the average episode length on Forward Guidance?

The average episode length on Forward Guidance is 68 minutes.

How often are episodes of Forward Guidance released?

Episodes of Forward Guidance are typically released every 2 days, 17 hours.

When was the first episode of Forward Guidance?

The first episode of Forward Guidance was released on Oct 27, 2021.

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