Fantasy Football, in Theory

Welcome to Fantasy Football, in Theory, a brand new fantasy football podcast dedicated to high-level fantasy strategy in the abstract.

The 2007 San Diego Chargers were faced with a choice: part with one of the most successful coaches in NFL history, or with the hot GM who had figured out how to beat the NFL draft.

Today, we re-examine that choice with the benefit of hindsight. In our autopsy, we'll discuss John Bogle, Wyatt Earp, and definitely-not-Albert-Einstein. Our findings carry rather striking implications for our own desires to evaluate talent in fantasy football, and raise a question that strikes to the heart of the scouting profession...

... Can anyone beat the NFL draft?

If you want to read more on this topic, here are links to the articles referenced in this show.

The First Index Mutual Fund: A History of Vanguard Index Trust and the Vanguard Index Strategy, by John Bogle - http://www.vanguard.com/bogle_site/lib/sp19970401.html

Are Certain Teams Better at Drafting than Others? by Chase Stuart - http://www.footballperspective.com/are-certain-teams-better-at-drafting-than-others/

Cade Massey on Flipping Coins and the NFL Draft, by Brian Burke - http://archive.advancedfootballanalytics.com/2013/04/cade-massey-on-flipping-coins-and-nfl.html

Luck vs. Skill: Year-Over-Year NFL Draft Performance, by Steve Drake - http://www.sportsplusnumbers.com/2013/04/luck-vs-skill-nfl-draft-performance.html

Luck vs. Skill: Is Anyone Good at Picking Football Players? by Steve Drake - http://www.sportsplusnumbers.com/2013/05/luck-vs-skill-in-nfl-draft.html

Luck vs. Skill: Are Picks After Trading Up Better than Others? by Steve Drake - http://www.sportsplusnumbers.com/2013/05/luck-vs-skill-are-picks-after-trading.html

No Team Can Beat the Draft, by Neil Paine - http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/no-team-can-beat-the-draft/

I've written in the past on the odd intersection between index funds and fantasy football, in a three part series on index investing in dynasty rookie drafts.

Part 1: http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/article.php?article=harstadindex101

Part 2: http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/article.php?article=harstadindex201

Part 3: http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/article.php?article=harstadindex301

If you enjoy my work, you can find it exclusively at www.footballguys.com. An archive of links to past articles of mine is also available at my blog, http://dynastytheory.blogspot.com/2014/08/a-link-to-all-my-writings.html.

If you have any other questions or comments, or you'd like to submit a topic for a future show, I can be reached via email at [email protected], or on Twitter at @AdamHarstad.

Thanks for listening!

Welcome to Fantasy Football, in Theory, a fantasy football podcast dedicated to high-level fantasy strategy in the abstract.

In today's episode: Cowards die many times before their deaths; the valiant podcast about it from the comfort of their living rooms.

If you enjoy my work, you can find it exclusively at www.footballguys.com. An archive of links to past articles of mine is also available at my blog, http://dynastytheory.blogspot.com/2014/08/a-link-to-all-my-writings.html.

If you have any other questions or comments, or you'd like to submit a topic for a future show, I can be reached via email at [email protected], or on Twitter at @AdamHarstad.

Thanks for listening!

Welcome to Fantasy Football, in Theory, your only podcast devoted to fantasy football strategy in the abstract. It is said that those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it. We are told that history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes. But the past and the future are temporally distinct, and one is not the other. So how are lessons to be drawn? This is the paradox at the heart of any efforts to let our knowledge of the past shape our expectations for the future.

The introduction to today's episode is adapted from an essay I wrote in 2017 titled This Is Not Amari Cooper. If you'd like to read the essay in its original form, complete with pictures that are not the things they represent (but which are similar in structure, which accounts for their usefulness), you can find it here: https://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/article.php?article=HarstadFiT8

If you want to view Luke's projection system and perhaps incorporate it into your own personal process, it's freely available here: http://lukevosters.com/

If you enjoy my work, you can find it exclusively at www.footballguys.com. An archive of links to past articles of mine is also available at my blog, http://dynastytheory.blogspot.com/2014/08/a-link-to-all-my-writings.html.

If you have any other questions or comments, or you'd like to submit a topic for a future show, I can be reached via email at [email protected], or on Twitter at @AdamHarstad.

Thanks, as always, for listening!

Welcome to Fantasy Football, in Theory, your only podcast devoted to fantasy football strategy in the abstract.

How do the labels we use affect how we see things, taste things, hear things, feel things, and interact with the world around us? And perhaps more importantly, what the heck does this have to do with football? Special guest Matt Harmon joins us to discuss.

Content referenced during this episode includes:

Fighting through negativity bias and a wide receiver's drop issues: http://www.thebackyardbanter.com/fighting-through-negativity-bias-and-a-wide-receivers-drops.html

What You See is Not All There Is: http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/article.php?article=HarstadDiT29

The Crayola-fication of the World, parts 1 and 2: http://www.empiricalzeal.com/2012/06/05/the-crayola-fication-of-the-world-how-we-gave-colors-names-and-it-messed-with-our-brains-part-i/

http://www.empiricalzeal.com/2012/06/11/the-crayola-fication-of-the-world-how-we-gave-colors-names-and-it-messed-with-our-brains-part-ii/

What Quarterback Rate Stats Stay Most Consistant When a Quarterback Change Teams?: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/index76ed.html?p=4152

What Quarterback Rate Stats Stay Most Consistent When a Team Changes Quarterbacks?: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/index3801.html?p=4395

Thoughts on Running Back Yards per Carry: http://www.footballperspective.com/thoughts-on-running-back-yards-per-carry/

When Do Yards and Touchdowns Per Carry Stabilize?: http://intentionalrounding.com/when-do-yards-and-touchdowns-per-carry-stabilize/

Career Leaders in Yards Per Carry, (Era-Adjusted): http://www.footballperspective.com/career-leaders-in-yards-per-carry-era-adjusted/

If you enjoy my work, you can find it exclusively at www.footballguys.com. An archive of links to past articles of mine is also available at my blog, http://dynastytheory.blogspot.com/2014/08/a-link-to-all-my-writings.html.

If you have any other questions or comments, or you'd like to submit a topic for a future show, I can be reached via email at [email protected], or on Twitter at @AdamHarstad.

Thanks for listening!

Welcome to Fantasy Football, in Theory, your only podcast devoted to fantasy football strategy in the abstract.

What if everything we thought we knew about football was wrong? What if the all-time greats and the all-time goods and all-time okays were really just an indecipherable mess distinguished primarily by chance, a series of coins that could have just as easily landed on the other side (if they were even destined to be flipped at all)? What if the universe— to quote Fantasy Football, in Theory favorite J.B.S. Haldane— is not only queerer than we suppose, but queerer than we can suppose. Today I talk about how everything we see is a product of everything we don't see. If you want to read more about the history of the West Coast Offense and its roots in Cincinnati, I highly recommend this piece by Chris Wesseling of NFL.com: https://www.nfl.com/news/sidelines/the-ohio-river-offense

If you enjoy my work, you can find it exclusively at www.footballguys.com. An archive of links to past articles of mine is also available at my blog, http://dynastytheory.blogspot.com/2014/08/a-link-to-all-my-writings.html.

If you have any other questions or comments, or you'd like to submit a topic for a future show, I can be reached via email at [email protected], or on Twitter at @AdamHarstad.

Thanks, as always, for listening!