Economy Watch
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10/17/24 • 5 min
Back on inflation alert
Economy Watch
02/18/25 • 4 min
Kia ora,
Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.
I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.
And today we lead with news inflation is still not beat and the new tariff wars are messing with when that might happen.
First up today, there was another dairy auction, and this one came in weaker than the derivatives markets had anticipated. Prices slipped overall by -0.6% in USD terms and by -1.5% in NZD terms. It was a much lower SMP price that was the surprise undershoot, down -2.5% from the prior event and last week's Pulse event. Cheddar cheese also took a -3.4% tumble, whereas the WMP price was only -0.2% lower than the last event, but it didn't fall as much as the derivatives market anticipated. Going the other way, there was a -2.2% rise in the butter price, taking it to almost matching its record high in June 2024. It is at its record high in NZD.
Overall, of note today, "North Asia" (ie China) returned with renewed demand to be the top buyer, after largely sitting on the sidelines recently.
In the US, the New York region factory survey turned from a negative to a positive expansion in February, a continuation of an improving trend that started in early 2024 but one that has been volatile.
But their national survey of house builders turned more cautious in February, hurt by tariff-talk and the expected resulting inflation.
In Canada they reported January CPI inflation, and that came in at 1.9% and pretty much as expected. But the "trimmed mean" core rate came in at 2.7%, the one the Bank of Canada follows, above the December level of 2.6% and well above the expected 2.5% level. This is going the wrong way for them and they may now skip the expected March rate cut.
We should probably note that German business sentiment rose in February, ahead of this weekend's federal elections, on the hope that a new government won't get stuck in coalition paralysis. More broadly, EU business sentiment is rising too.
The Reserve Bank of Australia cuts its policy rate by -25 bps to 4.1%, much as expected by financial markets, citing progress on getting inflation down towards its target range. It was their first cut since 2020. But it was a hawkish cut, and post-election there may not be any more until the clear inflation pressures ease, especially those expected from the looming tariff war. Despite that, financial markets are still pricing in at least two more rate cuts in 2025.
The UST 10yr yield is at 4.54%, up +5 bps from yesterday at this time.
The price of gold will start today at just under US$2931/oz and up +US$33 from yesterday.
Oil prices are up +50 USc at just over US$71.50/bbl in the US and the international Brent price is now at US$75.50/bbl.
The Kiwi dollar is now at 57 USc and down -40 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are down -30 bps at 89.8 AUc. Against the euro we are down -20 bps at 54.6 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just over 66.9, and down -30 bps from this time yesterday and has been among the largest devaluers over the past 24 hours.
The bitcoin price starts today at US$94,789 and down another -0.7% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at +/- 1.1%.
Join us at 2pm this afternoon for full coverage of the RBNZ's Monetary Policy Statement. And before that, we will have the January REINZ results at 9am.
You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.
You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.
Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.
Bad policy comes with big costs
Economy Watch
12/16/24 • 6 min
Kia ora,
Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.
I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.
And today we lead with news analysts are now starting to estimate the costs to the US economy of some upcoming tariff policy.
But first, the S&P Global American services PMI rose in December to its strongest expansion since March 2022. But their manufacturing downturn deepened with manufacturers reporting falling output and higher prices. New factory orders fell sharply, extending the decline to a sixth consecutive month. The divergence makes the services sector jump look like a sugar-rush, one that could come with a hangover.
The December factory survey in the New York region reflects the factory pullback - although that is from an unusually strong November.
A New York Fed study of whether large tariff hikes protect US firms has found the opposite in a detailed survey. This is no surprise to economists, and they suggest that the next round is also likely to hurt American firms further. Further own-goals for American manufacturing are on their way. Others say it will shrink US GDP by -1%. That would be a US$300 bln hit.
North of the border, Canadian housing starts came in particularly strong in November, and surprisingly so.
And Canadian house prices are on an extended uptrend, boosted by more sales activity as interest rates come down there.
But in a surprise political move in Canada, their Finance Minister has suddenly resigned, "throwing its economic agenda into a tailspin". Disagreement on how to frame Canada's policies when Trump comes to power in the US seems to be at the heart of the matter.
Across the Pacific in Japan, their November PMIs revealed that their factory sector is now barely contracting (an improvement from October), and their services sector is now expanding faster. They had their strongest rise in private sector activity in the past three months. So perhaps it is no surprise to know that machinery orders are on the rise, after a lean period.
China’s new house prices in 70 cities shrank by -5.7% year-on-year in November, following the steepest decline in over nine years of 5.9% in the previous month. This marked the 17th consecutive month of decreases, suggesting that Beijing’s extended attempts to mitigate the prolonged downturn in the property sector, such as reducing mortgage rates and slashing home buying costs, have yet to have the effect they are looking for. Prices for second-hand houses were even weaker.
China’s industrial production rose +5.4% in November from the same month a year ago, mildly exceeding market estimates and October's growth rate of +5.3%. The expansion was due to a good +6.0% rise in manufacturing. At the same time electricity production only rose +0.9% in the same basis, so that does undermine somewhat the validity of the industrial gains. And that low gain does match the 'headwinds' narrative they have been talking about. Their industrial pro...
US inflation progress stalls in October
Economy Watch
11/13/24 • 4 min
Kia ora,
Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.
I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.
Today we lead with news markets are starting to price in the return of US inflation in 2025, and perhaps the end of US Fed rate cuts (although there could still be a last hurrah in December).
In the US, their CPI inflation rate rose to 2.6% in October from 2.4% in September. This is the expected rise but is the first rise in seven months. In March it was running at 3.5%. Energy costs fell in October but by less than expected. Rents rose 4.9%. Food inflation slowed to 2.1% and transportation (airfares) to 8.2%. Prices continued to fall for new vehicles. The closely-watched core inflation rate held at 3.3%.
Given that the new US Administration policies are expected to be strongly inflationary, the US Fed will have a challenge on its hands to retain the gains they have won post-pandemic. But it seems that markets are still pricing the US Fed to cut rates again when they next meet on December 19 (NZT).
After falling in each of the past six weeks, US mortgage applications were little-changed last week (up +0.5%) to be little-changed from the same week a year ago. We probably should note that during all of October, they fell -35% from the prior month. And more falls are anticipated because benchmark interest rates are rising quickly now, in anticipation of a resurgence of inflation in 2025. At least, that is what markets are pricing.
US household debt rose on a gross basis to US$17.9 tln in Q3-2024, half of the increase in mortgage debt on rising home loan rates. Delinquency rates edged up marginally but remain historically now
Across the Pacific, Japan reported rising producer price inflation, with PPI up +3.4% in October, the highest since August 2023, and the 44th month of PPI gains.
In India, they had record passenger car sales in October, helped by unusually having two major festivals in the month, each with a history of higher consumer spending.
Although it is now slowing, wage cost growth in Australia in the September year was up +3.5%, a cost pressure on businesses that isn't being matched in output prices or rising productivity. It is the expected moderation, but they need it to slow much faster or there will be growing economic issues.
The UST 10yr yield is now at just on 4.45% and up +2 bps from yesterday.
The price of gold will start today at US$2589/oz and down -US$10 from this time yesterday.
Oil prices are -50 USc softer at US$68/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is unchanged at just on US$72/bbl.
The Kiwi dollar starts today at 58.9 USc and down -30 bps from yesterday as the USD rises further. The inflationary effect will now start to appear on imports because it has fallen -7.5% since the start of October. Against the Aussie we are +10 bps firmer at 90.8 AUc. Against the euro we have slipped -20 bps to 55.7 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 68.6, and down -20 bps from yesterday.
The bitcoin price starts today at US$92,520 and up another +6.2% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been very high at just on +/- 4.2%. The price in NZ dollars has now exceeded NZ$150,000 for the first time.
You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.
You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.
Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.
Retaliatory counterpunches come in many forms
Economy Watch
02/04/25 • 5 min
Kia ora,
Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.
I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.
And today we lead with news it remains unclear what happens next after the chaotic round of US tariffs on their closest trade partners, and then their unexpected suspension.
But first up this morning, we can report a strong dairy auction result, with prices up +3.7% in USD terms and up +4.0% in NZD terms. The key WMP price was up +4.1% in USD terms and is now sitting much higher than the anticipated US$4000 level. There were a couple of key factors at play today. First, despite rising NZ production, the volume of product on offer was down, and along with lower US and Australian milk production, there is a supply squeeze. And secondly, there was strong pre-Ramadan buying although not so much from China as anticipated. Where each component has landed can be checked in our dual-currency charts that also interleave the Pulse results for SMP and WMP as well. There are some new high benchmarks achieved today, especially the WMP price in NZD.
And, yes, the strength of this auction will have analysts reassessing their payout forecasts. But they will probably hold back because of where we are in the season. However, the base is now quite strong.
US job openings fell by -556,000 to 7.6 million in December, to a lot less than anticipated and indicating a definite cooling of the American labour market. Clearly employers were uncertain about how the post-election landscape would play out. And this came well before the aggressive purging of Federal government jobs now underway.
Perhaps worse, new orders for manufactured goods sank -0.9% in December from November, extending the revised -0.8% drop in the previous month, and firmly below market expectations of a lesser decline. It was the sharpest monthly drop since June.
But retail sales were up +5.7% last week from the same week a year ago on a same-store basis and that was an improvement. However you have to wonder whether this rise was motivated by buying ahead of expected price rises flowing from the signaled tariff increases.
Surging inventory levels has seen the US Logistics Manager’s Index jump in January from December to its fastest expansion of the logistics since June 2022. Underlying growth and the uncertainty surrounding trade regulations, particularly the tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China, drove the defensive inventory moves.
On the trade war front, the US delayed its tariff imposition in both Mexico and Canada by a month, but China set in motion is retaliation, a mixture of its own countervailing tariffs especially on coal, oil and natural gas, plus major 'investigations' of Google, Nvidia and Intel. It also banned exports of some key minerals. But analysts thing there is more symbolism here than hard penalties. They are being saved for later in the game.
In Canada, consumer boycotts may have a bigger effect than official retaliation. Other major economies are also readying their retaliation, including Japan and the EU. If all of them act in unison, the impact of just these five big trading blocs will be substantial for the US (and themselves of course).
China thinks it can win the trade war with the US just by letting the yuan sink. In fact, all currencies vs the USD are falling. That way imports become cheaper for US buyers, and US exports become more expensive (and less attractive) to overseas customers. It is lose-lose for the US. Trump is fighting natural market forces with unnatural tariffs.
Join us at 10:45am this morning when we will report the Q4-2025 unemployment rate. Markets expect it to have risen to 5.1% from the Q3 4.8%. Any variance from that will have implications for the February OCR review due on the 18th of this month.
The UST 10yr yield is at 4.52%, unchanged from yesterday at this time.
The price of gold will start today at US$2840/oz and up +US$23 from yesterday and ano...
Fear & uncertainty to the fore as 2024 ends
Economy Watch
12/30/24 • 5 min
Kia ora,
Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.
I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.
And today we lead with news 2024 has brought some huge and surprising changes. But in other sectors, not as much change as you might have expected. And through it all profits and wealth growth have been strong.
But first in the US and based on a rise in new orders, the Dallas Fed's Texas manufacturing indexmoved up into positive territory in December, its first positive reading since April 2022. Forward sentiment was positive in that state for a second month in a row.
Also driven by new order inflows, but the lack of them in this case, the Chicago PMI fell further in December from November and missing market forecasts. This is their 13th consecutive month of retreats, recording its steepest decline since May.
US pending home sales in November grew a strong +6.9% from a year ago, their best rise since May 2021. To be fair however, it is off a weak base, but it is the fourth straight month of gains in sales volumes. Sellers seem to be capitulating on price expectations, and it has become a buyers market, according to the peak US realtor group.
In China, a Reuters poll suggests factory activity there expanded in December, capping a three month gain.
In Japan, their 10-year government bond yield edged up to around 1.11%, its highest since 2011, as investors continued to assess their latest inflation data.
South Korean retail sales rose more than expected. Even so the gain was minimal. Korean industrial production undershot in November. But it is their political crisis that is hurting their currency, falling to its lowest against the USD since 2009.
Other countries are depreciating too against the US dollar. The Turkish lira is at a record, all-time low. Ditto the Russian ruble. And the Chinese yuan is almost its lowest since 2007.
The US dollar index is ending the year its highest since 2022, and prior to that, its strongest since 2002.
Back on Wall Street, the Wall Street Journal is reporting the investment in exchange traded funds now exceeds US$10 tln, with a 2024 rise in these investment vehicles up +30% from 2023 or up +US$21⁄2 tln in 2024.
The UST 10yr yield is now at just on 4.55%, and down -8 bps from yesterday.
The price of gold will start today at US$2298/oz and down -US$22 from yesterday. We started the year with this price at just on US$2,050/oz, so a +27% net rise for 2024.
Oil prices are a bit more than +50 USc firmer at just over US$71/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is still just over US$74. We are ending 2024 almost exactly where we started.
The Kiwi dollar starts today just on 56.4 USc and unchanged from yesterday. We started the year at 63.4 USc, peaked at 63.6 USc at the end of September, but the net devaluation until now has been -11.1% in USD terms. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps at 90.7 AUc. Against the euro we are up +20 bps at 54.3 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just over 67 to be little-changed from yesterday. The TWI-5 started the year at 71.1, (it peaked at 71.4 mid February) for an overall devaluation of -5.8%.
The bitcoin price starts today at US$91,907 and down -2.0% from this time on Saturday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at +/- 1.5%. It started the year at US$44,204 and rose to US$73,095 by mid-March. It was still at just US$69,391 just prior to the US election, and has risen since that result. It peaked by closing at US$106,169 on December 18, 2024.
You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.
You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.
Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again on Monday, January 6.
Happy New Year everyone !
AI generated podcast test
Economy Watch
10/18/24 • 16 min
This is a test of the podcast generator on Google Notebook LLM
08/25/24 • 6 min
Kia ora,
Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.
I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.
Today we lead with news it seems the global soft landing has been achieved.
But first, the week ahead will feature some chunky economic data from the world's largest economies but no first-tier data. This seems befitting of the final week of the summer break in the northern hemisphere when end the week with long weekends in the US and Canada (Labor Day). Then after a northern summer of fickle markets, it will be back to normal market trading. That often sets the tone for the rest of the year.
In the US it will be headlined with durable goods orders, another Q2 GDP estimate which is expected to show an improvement, and some sentiment indexes. In China, it is industrial profits data and August PMIs at the end of the week India chimes in with Q2 GDP. And Australia with its monthly inflation indicator.
Japanese CPI inflation was at 2.8% in July from a year ago, holding steady for the third straight month while remaining at its highest level since February. Electricity prices jumped, and other fuel costs rose too after the full end of energy subsidies in May. However costs fell for education and communication. Meanwhile, their core inflation rate hit a five-month high of 2.7% in July. Monthly, the CPI rose by +0.2% in July, the least in three months, after a +0.3% gain in June.
In his testimony to the Japanese Parliament, the central bank boss kept future rate hikes in play this year by turning a potentially messy parliamentary hearing into a relatively straightforward reiteration of policy. These were his first public remarks following recent high volatility on equity markets. Since, things have settled nicely in his favour.
Taiwanese retail sales rose +3.4% in July from a year ago, a slight slowing of the pace of increase from June. Meanwhile their industrial production rose a very strong +12.3% in July on the sale basis, much of it due to strong international demand. This is a big turnaround because you might recall that a year ago it was contracting under election uncertainty and PRC pressure.
In China, they have suddenly closed its process for approving new steel plants. That comes after widespread negative global reactions to dumped steel products after a deep slump in local demand. In the past required Beijing authorities required the elimination of existing capacity before approving new plants. Those rules no longer apply. No new steel capacity will be approved.
China's economic stumbles are having no global impact.
In the US in his widely anticipated Jackson Hole speech, Powell gave the financial markets clear signals, and they reacted accordingly. He indicated the central bank will cut its interest rate in the September 19 meeting (NZT) noting that the US labour market is cooling quickly following the softer jobs report in July and the downward revision to payrolls this week. He also said the FOMC has gained further confidence that inflation is slowing to their 2% target, warranting a clear view that it is time to adjust monetary policy to less restrictive conditions.
The USD sank, equities rose, and bond yields eased a bit more than was already priced in.
This week's upcoming PCE inflation gauge (expect 2.6%, down from 3.4%) is widely expected to confirm the Fed's expectation that inflation is tracking as they need it.
Meanwhile American new home sales surged +10.6% in July from the previous month to an annualised rate of 739,000, well above market expectations of a +1% increase. It was the sharpest increase in sales since August of 2022 and the highest number of homes since May 2023 and the July level is +5.6% higher than the same month in 2023.
In commercial pro...
Oil demand falls, supply rising
Economy Watch
11/14/24 • 4 min
Kia ora,
Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.
I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.
Today we lead with news the slowing Chinese economy is keeping the oil price low, and it might stay that way because supply is rising, and quite quickly.
But first, although there were no surprises in US initial jobless claim levels, they did rise last week to 229,000 on seasonal factors so there are now 1.65 mln people on these benefits, maintaining the low recent levels. No labour market stress signs yet still.
But there are signs of lingering inflation pressures in their producer prices for October with them up +2.3%, a rise from the +1.9% year on year rate in September. The October rise was slightly more than analysts were expecting. Higher prices in their booming logistics sector caused the twist higher.
The August improvement in EU industrial production was not maintained in September and it ended down-2.0% from the same month a year ago.
But despite that disappointment, Q3-2024 EU GDP came in +0.9% higher than the same quarter a year ago, and employment was up +1.0%. These are the expected levels, so no surprises here. While these levels are low and benchmark poorly with other major economies, there are still positive.
The Australian labour market update for October shows employment rising by +16,000 when a +25,000 rise was expected. Their participation rate slipped slightly, allowing their jobless rate to hold at 4.1%. But this also means their employed workforce is +387,000 higher than a year ago, a healthy +2.7% rise. But almost 40% of that rise was for part-time work; a year ago part-time jobs made up only 31%, so the shift away from full-time positions is rising.
And staying in Australia, their largest bank has concluded that the 2024 "stage 3 tax cuts" are not flowing through to more consumer spending, rather being used to build resilience (or build back some capacity) by paying debt down faster, especially mortgages.
Container shipping freight rates were virtually unchanged last week, 2.4 times higher than a year ao, and 140% higher than pre-pandemic levels in early November.
Bulk cargo rates rose +13% last week from the week before in a sharpish move up, to be almost the same as the same week a year ago.
The UST 10yr yield is now at just on 4.40% and down -5 bps from yesterday.
And we should probably note that the share price for Xero hit AU$171 yesterday, a record high.
The price of gold will start today at US$2574/oz and down -US$15 from this time yesterday.
Oil prices are +50 USc firmer at US$68.50/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is now just under US$72.50/bbl.
In its November update, the IEA says that with surging supply, and cooling demand in China, even if the OPEC+ cuts remain in place, global crude oil supply will exceed demand by more than 1 mb/d in 2025.
The Kiwi dollar starts today at 58.8 USc and down -10 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are -10 bps softer at 90.7 AUc. Against the euro we have also slipped -10 bps to 55.6 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 68.5, and unsurprisingly down -10 bps from yesterday.
The bitcoin price starts today at US$88,820 and down -4.0% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been high at just on +/- 3.2%. Despite the slip, the price in NZ dollars is still above NZ$150,000.
You can find links to the arti...
10/15/24 • 4 min
Kia ora,
Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.
I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.
Today we lead with news China is dusting off some unused regulations to shore up its deteriorating financial situation.
But first, at the overnight dairy auction, prices were little-changed, down -0.2% in USD terms but up +2.8% in NZD terms. The dominant WMP price was essentially unchanged, but the foodservice commodities like SMP were down -1.8%, mozzarella down -8.2% and butter down -0.3%. Going the other way, cheddar cheese was up +4.2% and the only bright spot. No farm gate payout forecasts will be changed because of this event.
Last week's US retail impulse survey shows a strong rise of +5.6% from a year ago. And this is not only well ahead of inflation, it is built on a strong +4.6% gain in the same week a year ago.
Meanwhile, American consumer inflation expectations in September were little-changed at 3% for the year ahead. In fact consumer labour market and household finance expectations are largely stable too. Given it is an election period with its share of weirdness, perhaps this is not quite the result you might have expected.
But it is not all good. Business activity contracted modestly in New York State, according to firms responding to the October 2024 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. After climbing into positive territory last month, the headline general business conditions index retreated rather sharply. New order levels fell, and shipments edged lower.
Canada's CPI inflation rate fell to 1.6% in September, from 2.0% in August. It is now at its lowest level since February 2021. Lower fuel costs drove the retreat. It seems more likely now that Canada's central bank will cut its 4.25% policy rate when it next meets on Thursday, October 24 (NZT). Maybe outsized cuts are coming there.
Japan industrial production is becoming quite volatile with big jumps followed by bit dips. The August data revealed a big dip, year-on-year. It is hard to know what to make of this new volatility. But overall it represents a sag.
In a bit of a surprise, EU industrial production jumped in August and by enough to take the year-on-year level above August 2023, a rare event. It was the best month-on-month jump in more than a year. The European service sector is doing better and enabling local factories with more orders.
In China, Bloomberg is reporting that tax authorities there are cracking down on offshore income earned by their wealthy. It has begun enforcing a long-overlooked tax on overseas investment gains. Some wealthy individuals in major Chinese cities were told in recent months to conduct self-assessments or summoned by tax authorities for meetings to evaluate potential payments, including those in arrears from past years, they reported. The move underscores growing urgency in Beijing to expand its sources of revenue as land sales tumble and growth slows.
And we probably should note that those grain commodity price falls we noted yesterday have gathered steam today.
The UST 10yr yield is now at just on 4.04% and down -8 bps from yesterday.
The price of gold will start today at US$2661/oz and up +US$14 from this time yesterday.
Oil prices are down a sharpish -US$3.50 at just on US$70.50/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is now just under US$74.50/bbl.
The Kiwi dollar starts today at 60.8 USc and down -10 bps from this time yesterday. Ag...
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FAQ
How many episodes does Economy Watch have?
Economy Watch currently has 795 episodes available.
What topics does Economy Watch cover?
The podcast is about News, Investing, Business News, Investment, Podcasts, Finance, New Zealand, Business and Economy.
What is the most popular episode on Economy Watch?
The episode title 'Last-mile gains in inflation war hard to achieve' is the most popular.
What is the average episode length on Economy Watch?
The average episode length on Economy Watch is 9 minutes.
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Episodes of Economy Watch are typically released every day.
When was the first episode of Economy Watch?
The first episode of Economy Watch was released on Jun 7, 2022.
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