DHUnplugged Podcast

Bulls remain in charge

Data not important – down the road all will be fine

Seasonality – Race to the End

CPI and PPI – conflicting

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This week on TDI Podcast - Patrick O'Hare from Briefing.com

Warm-Up
- Bulls remain in charge
- Data not important - down the road all will be fine
- Seasonality - Race to the End
- Check the Podcast Cover Design - trying to do all from AI generation through end of year.
- Musk pulls a fast one

Markets
- CPI and PPI - conflicting
- Bank earnings - so far so good
- Fed allowing people to look past negatives - rather to opportunities ahead
- US Chips and Exports - roughed up market

Economics This Week
- Import and Export Prices
- Retail Sales
- Philly Fed
- Industrial Production
- Housing Starts
- Building Permits

Of Interest:
NY Fed says median inflation expectations remained unchanged at 3.0% at the one-year horizon, increased to 2.7% from 2.5% at the three-year horizon, and increased to 2.9% from 2.8% at the five-year horizon.
- So inflation is a bit more sticky than

Recession - No Says Goldman
- Goldman lowers recession odds to just 15%

Seasonality - The Race until the end
- Sell Rosh Hashana and Buy Yom Kippur - so far so good - working just as planned. Almost...
- End of year from here favors the bulls
- Could have a few complications with the election right in between but electoral promises will be helpful for markets

Markets Worried?
- Biden administration officials have discussed capping sales of advanced AI chips from Nvidia Corp. and other American companies on a country-specific basis
- NVDA, INTC, AMD in the crosshairs for Middle East
- Officials are focused on Persian Gulf countries that have a growing appetite for AI data centers and the deep pockets to fund them
- The new approach would set a ceiling on export licenses for certain countries in the interest of national security
- ASML earnings miss (Stock dropped 16%) is a drag on chip/semiconductor sector

Fed Powers
- Former President Trump on Bloomberg interview says Fed Chair Jerome Powell dropped rates too much in 2020; says a president should be able to give his or her opinion to Fed on interest rates, but he or she shouldn't be allowed to order it

ELON - Pulling a fast one
- Tesla had its Optimus robots controlled by remote at CyberCab event, according to Bloomberg
- Also, reports that driver-less cars controlled by remote drivers in India (or somewhere)
- Isn't that fraud?

Example of promises hitting the wires
- Former President Trump will propose today making all interest on car loans fully tax deductible, according to Reuters
- Former President Trump will also propose a 15% corporate tax rate only for companies that produce products in America
- Former President Trump will also propose banning all Chinese autonomous vehicles from traveling on US roads (Special gift for Elon)

Consumer Confidence
- Last Friday - confidence showed people less confident
- Inflation expectations lower, but dropped 2 points from last month

JPM Earnings
- JPMorgan Chase & Co. reported a surprise gain in net interest income for the third quarter and raised its forecast for the key revenue source, even amid expectations that US interest rates will continue to fall.
- Revenue from the bank’s Wall Street operations also defied analysts’ estimates, with investment-banking fees surging 31%, topping estimates for a 16% gain. Equity traders notched a 27% revenue increase.
- Official: JPMorgan Chase reported strong third-quarter earnings, with earnings per share (EPS) of $4.50, beating estimates. The bank’s performance was driven by robust trading and investment banking revenues. This reflects a slight drop compared to the same quarter last year, when earnings were $4.33 per share. However, JPMorgan's revenues increased from the previous year's figure of $39.8 billion<...