DHUnplugged #675: Data Deluge

Apple earnings are this week, along with a Fed rate decision, Treasury supply and the Employment report. A deluge of data over the next few days. War time markets - skittish and on edge. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - End of Earnings Season - Droop - Big Week - Treasury $, Apple Earnings, Fed Rate Decision and BLS Employment - All of a sudden - export bans may hurt chip companies (after denying any material impact) -Big prediction on oil prices (but market thinks otherwise) ------ Oil signalling less concern - EV's all of a sudden a cold shoulder Market Update - Apple News - Weird time of day (8pm Monday) - Biden AI Executive Order - May hit some stocks - Strikes just about over in Car Country - big costs - Data deluge this week - expect investors to be on edge OIL Prediction - World bank out with prediction - Worst case scenario, if war widens could result in increased food prices worldwide - If no expansion - oil will average $81 next year - Medium disruption - prices up 35% - Large disruption - prices could go up 50-75% Market Technical View - Defined Channel - DOWN MARKET TREND What to Expect from the Data Deluge - ISM on Friday (Services) - 53 vs 53 last - Employment - 160k and 3.8% (steady) - ISM Manufacturing 49 vs 49 (contraction) - FOMC Rate Decision (pause/pass/no change) - (Add in Treadury issuance needed to make up deficit and Apple earnings) Ganging up on Yellen - Several critical comments about Yellen's term as Treasury Secratary and Fed Chair --- Could have issued and locked in VERY cheap rates for long-term (50/00 yer bonds?) ----- Idea is sound, but there are other considerations that could have been problematic Apple Update - Apple on Monday (at 8PM ET) announced a new MacBook Pro lineup featuring the all-new family of M3 chips: M3, M3 Pro, and M3 Max. With a next-generation GPU architecture and a faster CPU, the M3 family brings even more performance and remarkable new capabilities to MacBook Pro. - The new 14?inch MacBook Pro with M3 is not only great for everyday tasks, but also delivers phenomenal sustained performance in pro apps and games. Perfect for aspiring creatives, students, and entrepreneurs, it now starts at $1,599. - The 14- and 16?inch MacBook Pro with M3 Pro provides even greater performance and additional unified memory support, enabling more demanding workflows for users like coders, creatives, and researchers. - The 14- and 16?inch MacBook Pro with M3 Max delivers performance and capabilities that push the limits of computing. - basically - faster chips, new finish to case (black ) - Apple also cut the price of its entry-level 14-inch MacBook Pro, from at least $1999 to $1599, although it gets a less powerful M3 chip, instead of the "Pro"-level chip on last year's model. - Note - 3 days before earnings as the Mac sales have been an issue in a decline sales environment (3 consecutive YOY declines) Follow Up - Florida Real Estate - Due to the Sufside building collapse, new laws for reserve set-asides. --- This is on top of the added costs for HOA and COA insurance increaes - “People are going to be losing their homes. Foreclosures are increasing,” warned Broward County Commissioner Mark Bogen. “As it looks right now, there are going to be so many people unable to live in their homes.... This is going to really be a crisis in our state.” - DECADES - condo associations did not put aside enough $ for future repairs, now new law could require rainy day funds ---- (Ultimately this will be retracted if fully implemented as condo prices will crash) - Not limited to Florida Executive Order