Imminent Scenarios in Ukraine

03/30/22 • 35 min

Guests featured in this episode:

Slawomir Sierakowski, a Polish sociologist and political analyst, with extensive knowledge of not only Ukraine and Russia, but also the potential third party in the current war, Belarus. He is also the founder and editor-in-chief of the Krytyka Polityczna (Political Critique) magazine. His more than 400 articles and op-eds include not only publications in Polish, but regular monthly columns in the international edition of The New York Times and Project Syndicate, among others.

GLOSSARY

What is the “Budapest Memorandum”?
(00:8:02 or p.2 in the transcript)

On December 5, 1994, leaders of the United States, the United Kingdom, and the Russian Federation met in Budapest, Hungary, to pledge security assurances to Ukraine in connection with its accession to the Treaty on the Nonproliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) as a non-nuclear-weapons state. The signature of the so-called Budapest Memorandum concluded arduous negotiations that resulted in Ukraine’s agreement to relinquish the world’s third-largest nuclear arsenal, which the country inherited from the collapsed Soviet Union, and transfer all nuclear warheads to Russia for dismantlement. The signatories of the memorandum pledged to respect Ukraine’s territorial integrity and inviolability of its borders, and to refrain from the use or threat of military force. Russia breached these commitments with its annexation of Crimea in 2014 and aggression in eastern Ukraine, bringing the meaning and value of security assurance pledged in the Memorandum under renewed scrutiny. Source

What is Nord Stream 2 pipeline?
(00:17:10 or p.4 in the transcript)

The construction of the controversial natural gas pipeline Nord Stream brings gas from Russia under the Baltic Sea to Germany, running parallel to, and expanding the capacity of, the existing Nord Stream pipeline. The project would allow additional Russian gas to flow directly to Germany. Opponents argue that it would increase Russian influence in Germany. This is a concern for Poland, the Baltic states, and the Ukraine, which also fear that they would lose out on revenue from the transport of natural gas via other existing routes. Critics also argue that a new gas pipeline does not fit with the EU’s strategy that aims at replacing fossil with renewable energy in the medium term, which would make Nord Stream 2 a stranded investment.

Nord Stream 2 has been completed with some delay, but hurdles in the certification procedure and political tensions at the Ukrainian-Russian border have held up the project. Source

Democracy in Question? is brought to you by:

• Central European University: CEU

• The Albert Hirschman Centre on Democracy in Geneva: AHCD

• The Podcast Company: Novel

• Central European University: @CEU

• Albert Hirschman Centre on Democracy in Geneva: @AHDCentre

Subscribe to the show. If you enjoyed what you listened to, you can support us by leaving a review and sharing our podcast in your networks!

Guests featured in this episode:

GLOSSARY

What is the “Budapest Memorandum”?
(00:8:02 or p.2 in the transcript)

What is Nord Stream 2 pipeline?
(00:17:10 or p.4 in the transcript)

Nord Stream 2 has been completed with some delay, but hurdles in the certification procedure and political tensions at the Ukrainian-Russian border have held up the project. Source

Democracy in Question? is brought to you by:

• Central European University: CEU

• The Albert Hirschman Centre on Democracy in Geneva: AHCD

• The Podcast Company: Novel

• Central European University: @CEU

• Albert Hirschman Centre on Democracy in Geneva: @AHDCentre

Subscribe to the show. If you enjoyed what you listened to, you can support us by leaving a review and sharing our podcast in your networks!

Previous Episode

Geopolitics of the War in Ukraine

Guests featured in this episode

Georgi Derluguian, Professor of Social Research and Public Policy at New York University’s Abu Dhabi campus. Born in the Soviet Union, Georgie then experienced its breakup as a young social scientist. Having pursued African studies in Moscow, Georgi spent two years in Mozambique during the civil war in the 1980s, and then moved to the United States right after that to work with Immanuel Wallerstein, graduating with a PhD in sociology from the State University of New York at Binghamton.

His dissertation research formed the basis of a groundbreaking and idiosyncratic book of historical sociology: Bourdieu’s Secret Admirer in the Caucasus: A World-System Biography (University of Chicago Press, 2005).

Glossary

What were the Brest- Litovsk Treaties?
(At 00:2:46 or p.1 in the transcript)

Treaties of Brest-Litovsk, peace treaties signed at Brest-Litovsk (now in Belarus) by the Central powers with the Ukrainian Republic (Feb. 9, 1918) and with Soviet Russia (March 3, 1918), which concluded hostilities between those countries during World War I. On March 3 the Soviet government accepted a treaty by which Russia lost Ukraine, its Polish and Baltic territories, and Finland. (The treaty was ratified by theCongress of Soviets on March 15, both the Ukrainian and Russian treaties were annulled by the Armistice on Nov. 11, 1918, which marked the Allied defeat of Germany. Source:

What was the Marschall Plan?
(00:7:19 or p.2 in the transcript)

The Marshall Plan, also known as the European Recovery Program, was a U.S. program providing aid to Western Europe following the devastation of World War II. It was enacted in 1948 and provided more than $15 billion to help finance rebuilding efforts on the continent. The brainchild of U.S. Secretary of State George C. Marshall, for whom it was named, it was crafted as a four-year plan to reconstruct cities, industries and infrastructure heavily damaged during the war and to remove trade barriers between European neighbors—as well as foster commerce between those countries and the United States. In addition to economic redevelopment, one of the stated goals of the Marshall Plan was to halt the spread communism on the European continent. Source:

Who was Vaclav Havel?
(At 00:16:30 or p.3 in the transcript)

Václav Havel, (1936-2011), Czech playwright, poet, and political dissident who, after the fall of communism, was president of Czechoslovakia (1989–92) and of the Czech Republic (1993–2003).

Havel was the son of a wealthy restaurateur whose property was confiscated by the communist government of Czechoslovakia in 1948. As the son of bourgeois parents, Havel was denied easy access to education but managed to finish high school and study on the university level. He found work as a stagehand in a Prague theatrical company in 1959 and soon began writing plays with Ivan Vyskočil. By 1968 Havel had progressed to the position of resident playwright of the Theatre of the Balustrade company. He was a prominent participant in the liberal reforms of 1968 (known as the Prague Spring), and, after the Soviet clampdown on Czechoslovakia that year, his plays were banned and his passport was confiscated. During the 1970s and ’80s he was repeatedly arrested and served four years in prison (1979–83) for his activities on behalf of human rights in Czechoslovakia. After his release from prison Havel remained in his homeland. When massive anti-government demonstrations erupted in Prague in November 1989, Havel became the leading figure in the Civic Forum, a new coalition of noncommunist opposition groups pressing for democratic reforms. In early December the Communist Party capitulated and formed a coalition government with the Civic Forum. As a result of an agreement between the partners in this bloodless “Velvet Revolution”, Havel was elected to the post of interim president of Czechoslovakia on December 29, 1989, and he was reelected to the presidency in July 1990, becoming the country’s first noncommunist leader since 1948. As the Czechoslovak union faced dissolution in 1992, Havel, who opposed the division, resigned from office. The following year he was elected president of the new Czech Republic. Source

Who was George Kenan?
(00:30:33 or p.6 in the transcript)

George F. Kennan, in full George Frost Kennan, American diplomat and historian best known for his successful advocacy of a containment policy to oppose Soviet expansionism following World War II.

Kennan’s views on containment were elucidated in a famous and highly influential article, signed “X,” tha...

Next Episode

Myanmar’s Struggle for Democratization

Guests featured in this episode:

Marzuki Darusman, an internationally recognized human rights lawyer and former Attorney General of Indonesia. Marzuki has participated in the work of UN committees on the assassination of Benazir Bhutto in Pakistan, war crimes in Sri Lanka, human rights in North Korea, and most recently, he was the chair an independent Fact-Finding Mission on Myanmar under the UN Human Rights Council following the Rohingya genocide in 2017.

GLOSSARY:

Who is the Aung San Suu Kyi?
(00:5:10 or p.2 in the transcript)

Aung San Suu Kyi, also calledDaw Aung San Suu Kyi, politician and opposition leader of Myanmar, daughter of Aung San, a martyred national hero of independent Burma and Khin Kyi a prominent Burmese diplomat, and winner of the Nobel Prize for Peace in 1991. She held multiple governmental posts from 2016, including that of state counselor, which essentially made her the de facto leader of the country. She was sidelined in February 2021 when the military seized power.

Aung San Suu Kyi was two years old when her father, then the de facto prime minister of what would shortly become independent Burma, was assassinated. She studied and lived abroad and returned to Burma in 1988 to nurse her dying mother,leaving her family behind. There the mass slaughter of protesters against the brutal and unresponsive rule of military strongman U Ne Win led her to speak out against him and to begin a nonviolent struggle for democracy and human rights.

In July 1989 Suu Kyi was placed under house arrest in Yangon and held her incommunicado. The military offered to free her if she agreed to leave Myanmar, but she refused to do so until the country was returned to civilian government and political prisoners were freed. The National League for Democracy (NLD), which Suu Kyi had cofounded in 1988, won more than 80 percent of the parliamentary seats that were contested in 1990, but the results of that election were ignored by the military government (in 2010 the military government formally annulled the results of the 1990 election).

After becoming state counselor she and her administration faced widespread international condemnation over the treatment of the Muslim Rohingya people of Myanmar’s Rakhine state. After some attacks by Rohingya militants on security installations in 2016 and 2017, the military and police embarked on a brutal campaign against the entire group, allegedly committing human rights abuses and causing a large percentage of the population to flee the country. Given Suu Kyi’s history as a champion of human rights and democracy, sharp criticism was directed at her in particular for initially seeming to ignore the crisis and, when she did address it, not denouncing the actions of the security forces or intervening. In protest of her inaction regarding the plight of the Rohingya, several organizations revoked human rights-related honours and awards previously bestowed upon her.

Although Suu Kyi’s reputation had suffered abroad, at home she and the NLD still retained a good amount of support. In the November 8, 2020, parliamentary elections, the NLD won a commanding majority of seats in both legislative chambers and was poised to form the next government.

The newly elected parliament was due to hold its first session on February 1, 2021, but, in the early hours of that day, the military seized power. Suu Kyi and other NLD leaders were detained by the military, which allowed Vice Pres. Myint Swe (a former general) to become acting president. Claiming that the unresolved election complaints were a threat to the country’s sovereignty, he invoked clauses 417 and 418 of the constitution, which provided for the military to declare a one-year state of emergency and take over administration of the government. Two days later the police announced that they had filed charges against Suu Kyi with regards to the presence of illegally imported walkie-talkie radios in her home. Source:

Who are the Bamar people?
(00:11:05 or p.3 in the transcript)

The term “Bamar” or “Burman” refers to the largest and culturally dominant ethnic group of Myanmar. The term “Burmese” refers to the language and culture of the Burmans, as well as to the other citizens of Myanmar. The Bamar migrated from SW China more than 3,000 years ago. The central plain formed by the Irrawaddy River and the Salween River is the traditional home of the Bamar. About 68% of the population of Myanmar is Burman (about 31 million), while the remaining population is divided into 5 main minority groups (Shan, Karen, Kachin, Arakanese, and Chin). There are also many small groups like the Lahu, Wa, Akha and Lisu. Almost all Bamar (more than 95%) are Buddhists.