Alex Vatanka - Mahsa Amini and a New Iranian Revolution

On September 16th of this year, Mahsa Amini, a 22 year old Iranian woman died in Tehran after being arrested by the Guidance Patrol, effectively the morality police, for bad hijab – which means that she wasn’t wearing the hijab, or veil, correctly. The official government line is that Mahsa suffered a heart attack in custody and subsequently died. However, eyewitnesses to the arrest, coupled with official autopsy findings, suggest otherwise – that Mahsa was beaten to death. This story, as horrific as it is, is not unique. These things happen in Iran regularly, as the Ayatollah and his theocracy has absolute control over social, political, and cultural life in Iran – and their interpretation of Islam is oppressive, violent, and inelastic.

So, the mass protests that have materialized and swept the country following Amini’s death aren’t necessarily reflective of anger at this one situation. But, it is an inflection point for a movement, particularly among young people, that has grown legs of its own and has paralyzed Iran and threatened the existing regime, exposing a vulnerability that has maybe not existed since the toppling of the Shah and the Iranian Revolution in 1979.

The government’s response, under the direction of Ayatollah Khamenei, is not surprising, but it has been devastating. Law enforcement has responded with extreme force – arresting people, beating people, and shooting to kill (often indiscriminately). And, it has not been limited to the protests or the protestors. Law enforcement has stormed children’s schools and fired on places of worship – attacking their citizens while they are at their most vulnerable. The most recent estimates by human rights organizations puts citizen deaths at the hands of Iranian authorities in response to the protests at 233 – 32 of which, were children.

The Iranian regime has also employed other well-worn, familiar strongman tactics to quell the protests – limiting Internet access, fully disconnecting the internet for long periods of time each day, disappearing people from the streets and their homes, and committing protesters to psychiatric institutions. But, what happens when the arsenal runs dry and fails, and the people you cut down are replaced by another front line, more angry and more determined– when nothing works to silence, placate, and subordinate a people wielding the only weapon that cannot be exhausted – a collective and communal voice agitating and demanding liberty, dignity, and freedom.

Today I’m talking to Alex Vatanka, the founding director of the Iran program at the Middle East Institute, Senior Fellow at Frontier Europe Initiative, and the author of the book The Battle of the Ayatollahs in Iran. I’ve asked Alex to Deep Dive to talk not just about the protests, but also to put this all into some historical context – to help us understand how Iran got here and where Iran might be going.
Recommended:
The Battle of the Ayatollahs in Iran: The United States, Foreign Powers, and Political Rivalry Since 1979 - Alex Vatanka

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