David Gurwitz--There Are Predictions And There Are Predictions

07/11/16 • 13 min

David has been working with Charles Nenner for 15 years and during that they’ve made some extraordinary calls. Every week they publish their market calls. Most of them are pretty good. Their calls on oil have been right on the money. Same with their calls on the equity markets for the past two years. While no one’s perfect, they’ve been using cycles to give us a pretty good idea.

Previous Episode

Brexit and the Long Way Down For Markets

From The Desk of David Gurwitz
For new clients, we mentioned on CNBC in late 2014 that we would not see more than 5% upside in Equities until the big crash starting in 2017
At the time, the S&P Futures was trading around 2120
Although it reached that level a few times afterwards, we felt being long stocks was risky, and many stocks lost a big portion of their market capitalization
We sent the study below as #2016 - 013 Charles Nenner Research Center - Summary of 5 Economic Indicator Forecasts and Some Thoughts on "Fundamentals" - Jan 24, 2016 Sunday
It explains how cycles work
We quote in part from that study:
Late in 2014, based on our cycle work, we noticed instability in the markets
For our new subscribers, we review our philosophy:
Cycles predict the ways investors will react to the news and events - based on rigorous analysis and calculations of past patterns. We do not know these events, but they do not have to happen for the effect to occur - at cycle tops or bottoms
For example, if the Fed only thinks about raising rates, it already has an effect At cycle tops, the media will bring up every negative detail they can come up with. At cycle bottoms, the opposite is true - the media will bring up every positive detail they can come up with. When President Reagan began serving in 1981, it seemed that he could do no wrong - and longer term equity market cycles were up from that point,. Therefore, we consider these cyclical and target patterns to be more fundamental than so-called "fundamentals"., The problem arises when long term investors decide - based on cycles - to leave the markets and short term investors take over