Conversations with Bill Kristol

Tensions between the United States and China have been rising as a result of the coronavirus pandemic. There is urgent need to think about the U.S.-China relationship and how the U.S. should confront the challenge. In this Conversation, Princeton professor and author of A Contest for Supremacy: China, America, and the Struggle for Mastery in Asia, Aaron Friedberg argues that the pandemic has accelerated a fact apparent for some time—namely, that strategic competition between the U.S. and China is likely to be the central question of geopolitics in the years ahead. According to Friedberg, one effect of the current crisis may be emerging bipartisan agreement that China represents a serious threat to American interests and principles. Friedberg asserts that it is yet unclear how America will react to the challenge from China—much will depend on elections, strategic choices, and other factors. But, Friedberg argues, we are unlikely to return to a policy consensus that seeks seamless integration of China into the world order. And, in this timely and important Conversation, Friedberg sketches some political, ideological, and economic factors the United States will have to confront as it attempts to develop a comprehensive China strategy.

With the recent rollout of ChatGPT and the development of other generative artificial intelligence, the future of AI—and its potential implications for national defense, economics, and society—has become a topic of urgent inquiry.

To discuss where things stand with AI, we are joined by Royal Hansen, Vice President of Engineering for Privacy, Safety, and Security at Google. Hansen explains the breakthroughs achieved over the past decade, and the profound implications that powerful software and computing have brought to domains from language translation and music to medicine, national security, logistics, and other dynamic areas of the economy. Noting the potential of AI for use as well as misuse, Hansen explains why we need to develop thoughtful safeguards in the development of new technologies. According to Hansen, already we are benefiting from just the "low hanging fruit"—as seen in the developments in language translation and other generative AI available today. But the potential for breakthroughs in other fields likely are closer than might have been imagined just a few years ago.

Harvey Mansfield reflects on The Federalist and why it should be read seriously as a great work on politics. Mansfield’s discussion calls our attention to the subtlety and complexity of the argument of The Federalist, as a whole, and explains why it remains an indispensable guide for thinking about American government. Mansfield and Kristol also consider how The Federalist draws on, but also differs from, works of ancient and early modern political science in its analysis of good government and republicanism.

Steven F. Hayward is a visiting scholar at UC Berkeley and author of important books on Churchill, Reagan, and many other subjects. In this Conversation, Hayward analyzes Churchill’s wartime leadership and his domestic political concerns—as well as his often neglected writings, which contain both timeless and timely political insights. Highlighting Churchill’s attachment to principles as well as his understanding of circumstances, Hayward demonstrates that Churchill remains vital to understanding statesmanship. Kristol and Hayward also compare and recommend their favorite speeches and works by and about Churchill.

Two years into the war, where do things stand in Ukraine? What are Vladimir Putin’s war aims and how is attempting to undermine American commitment and resolve?
To discuss these questions, we are joined by Timothy Snyder, a Yale historian and leading expert on Russia, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe. Noting impressive successes in recent weeks despite the lack of weapons supply from the United States, Snyder argues that “this is still a war that Ukraine can win. But it depends upon whether they have allies who are capable of seeing the political stakes and capable of behaving in a way which is consistent with simple military logic, which is what do you need to do to help your ally to win.”

Persuading Americans that Ukraine cannot win, or even that a Russian victory would be preferable, is an integral part of Vladimir Putin’s war strategy. According to Snyder, Putin knows he cannot win on the battlefield if the West musters its collective energy to Ukrainian victory, but believes he can win by influencing our political debates about international engagement and support for the war. Defeating Russia, Snyder explains, is vital not only for Ukraine, but also for America and our allies. Kristol and Snyder also discuss how understanding fascism might help us to comprehend contemporary Russian politics and other political developments around the world.