August Macro Analysis – Metals, Currencies, and the Decoupling of Commodities
08/18/17 • 32 min
Thanks for listening to the CRG Channel on the EKT Interactive Oil and Gas Podcast Network.
Commodity Research Group (CRG) is an independent research consultancy specializing in base and precious metals, as well energy products. The Group provides research and general price analysis for these markets, along with advice to companies seeking to construct hedging strategies.
In this podcast, market experts Edward Meir and Jim Colburn discuss key elements of the metals and currency markets.
Topics and Time Stamps:
[01:20] Copper – End of 5 year bear market – China effect
[05:30] Upcoming labor contracts in key copper producing areas
[07:50] Chilean economy and effect of recent copper bullish move
[08:50] World growth and the US dollar
[12:40] Dollar / Euro – Europe as the recent surprise story
[15:20] Gold – Technical failure bearish but too much political uncertainty
[19:00] Bitcoin – The new safe haven?
[21:05] Platinum and Palladium Overview
[24:35] Fed GDP and rate hike expectations – Effect on metals
[30:25] Wrap up – The decoupling of commodities
About the Experts
Edward Meir
Edward Meir was named the most accurate price forecaster for base metals in 2011, 2014 and 2015 and finished second for 2013, as ranked by Metal Bulletin, a leading trade publication. Additionally, he obtained the #2 ranking for precious metals in 2014 and was third in 2013. Prior to providing research under the banner of Commodity Research Group (formerly Madison Holdings), Mr. Meir sourced nonferrous metals out of Europe, China, and Russia for a number of clients, utilizing the 9 years of trading experience he had acquired while working with UK-based trading company Trans-World Metals.
Currently, Mr. Meir’s CRG has been retained by INTL FCStone as an independent research consultant for both base and precious metals. CRG provided similar services to MF Global for eight years prior to its demise in late 2011, covering the suite of energy products as well. Mr. Meir obtained his BA in Economics from Montreal’s McGill University and his MBA from New York University. He is a long-standing registered principle with the National Futures Association and his firm is registered with the NFA as an independent introducing broker.
James Colburn
Jim Colburn is a futures and options professional with 30 years of wide ranging experience in commodity markets. For much of his career, at Man Financial (1989-2011) and Jefferies LLC (2012-2013), Mr. Colburn worked with major integrated oil companies, hedge funds, pension funds and other entities to develop market hedging and trading strategies.
He has conducted trading, hedging and risk management workshops in energy markets worldwide.
Mr. Colburn is a published author on options trading, hedging, market making and risk management. In 1986, while at the New York Mercantile Exchange, Mr. Colburn helped develop new markets in energy option contracts by educating the oil industry, banks, floor traders and brokers, worldwide.
Links:
Commodity Research Group Podcast
Sponsors:
EKT Interactive Oil and Gas Podcast Network
Oil 101 A Free Online Introduction to the Oil and Gas Industry
The post August Macro Analysis – Metals, Currencies, and the Decoupling of Commodities appeared first on EKT Interactive.
Thanks for listening to the CRG Channel on the EKT Interactive Oil and Gas Podcast Network.
Commodity Research Group (CRG) is an independent research consultancy specializing in base and precious metals, as well energy products. The Group provides research and general price analysis for these markets, along with advice to companies seeking to construct hedging strategies.
In this podcast, market experts Edward Meir and Jim Colburn discuss key elements of the metals and currency markets.
Topics and Time Stamps:
[01:20] Copper – End of 5 year bear market – China effect
[05:30] Upcoming labor contracts in key copper producing areas
[07:50] Chilean economy and effect of recent copper bullish move
[08:50] World growth and the US dollar
[12:40] Dollar / Euro – Europe as the recent surprise story
[15:20] Gold – Technical failure bearish but too much political uncertainty
[19:00] Bitcoin – The new safe haven?
[21:05] Platinum and Palladium Overview
[24:35] Fed GDP and rate hike expectations – Effect on metals
[30:25] Wrap up – The decoupling of commodities
About the Experts
Edward Meir
Edward Meir was named the most accurate price forecaster for base metals in 2011, 2014 and 2015 and finished second for 2013, as ranked by Metal Bulletin, a leading trade publication. Additionally, he obtained the #2 ranking for precious metals in 2014 and was third in 2013. Prior to providing research under the banner of Commodity Research Group (formerly Madison Holdings), Mr. Meir sourced nonferrous metals out of Europe, China, and Russia for a number of clients, utilizing the 9 years of trading experience he had acquired while working with UK-based trading company Trans-World Metals.
Currently, Mr. Meir’s CRG has been retained by INTL FCStone as an independent research consultant for both base and precious metals. CRG provided similar services to MF Global for eight years prior to its demise in late 2011, covering the suite of energy products as well. Mr. Meir obtained his BA in Economics from Montreal’s McGill University and his MBA from New York University. He is a long-standing registered principle with the National Futures Association and his firm is registered with the NFA as an independent introducing broker.
James Colburn
Jim Colburn is a futures and options professional with 30 years of wide ranging experience in commodity markets. For much of his career, at Man Financial (1989-2011) and Jefferies LLC (2012-2013), Mr. Colburn worked with major integrated oil companies, hedge funds, pension funds and other entities to develop market hedging and trading strategies.
He has conducted trading, hedging and risk management workshops in energy markets worldwide.
Mr. Colburn is a published author on options trading, hedging, market making and risk management. In 1986, while at the New York Mercantile Exchange, Mr. Colburn helped develop new markets in energy option contracts by educating the oil industry, banks, floor traders and brokers, worldwide.
Links:
Commodity Research Group Podcast
Sponsors:
EKT Interactive Oil and Gas Podcast Network
Oil 101 A Free Online Introduction to the Oil and Gas Industry
The post August Macro Analysis – Metals, Currencies, and the Decoupling of Commodities appeared first on EKT Interactive.
Previous Episode
August Oil Market Analysis – Commodity Research Group
Thanks for listening to the CRG Channel on the EKT Interactive Oil and Gas Podcast Network.
Commodity Research Group (CRG) is an independent research consultancy specializing in base and precious metals, as well energy products. The Group provides research and general price analysis for these markets, along with advice to companies seeking to construct hedging strategies.
In this podcast, oil market experts Andrew Lebow and Jim Colburn discuss key fundamental forces driving oil prices in both the futures and options markets.
If you don't have 35 minutes, I recommend segments 11:35-18:45 for a discussion on product demand and US refining or from 18:55 – 24:50 for their analysis of crude oil inventories.
Topics and Time Stamps:
[01:35] OPEC recap – Production down – Reigning in Nigeria
[04:35] OPEC production call for Q3
[05:50] CSOs – Flat calls gaining momentum throughout curve
[07:00] Structure improves – Z7/Z8 spread making moves – over flat from -2.00
[09:10] US production growth flattening?
[11:35] US product demand and refinery situation
[15:15] Product arbs open
[18:55] EIA statistic analysis and future expectations – Crude stocks drawing significantly
[24:50] Venezuelan sanctions – or lack thereof – and what they could do to the market
[28:30] Price curve structure.
[25:20] Option recap – Implied volatility higher on rally – Z7 60 call has highest open interest
[31:40] $45 – $55 range in tact and still relevant
About the Experts
Andrew Lebow
Andrew Lebow has been involved in the energy derivative area since 1980. He began his career with Shearson Lehman Brothers where he worked in the initial formulation and marketing of the NYMEX WTI crude contract in 1983 as well as the NYMEX gasoline contract in 1985.
Mr. Lebow has appeared before the State Government of Alaska as well as the State Department of Defense to discuss hedging techniques. Mr. Lebow is also well known as a market analyst and is quoted frequently in the financial press. He has appeared on television on CNBC, NBC, CNN, CBS, and PBS. Mr. Lebow holds a BA from Lafayette College and an MBA from the Kellogg School of Management at Northwestern University.
James Colburn
Jim Colburn is a futures and options professional with 30 years of wide ranging experience in commodity markets. For much of his career, at Man Financial (1989-2011) and Jefferies LLC (2012-2013), Mr. Colburn worked with major integrated oil companies, hedge funds, pension funds and other entities to develop market hedging and trading strategies.
He has conducted trading, hedging and risk management workshops in energy markets worldwide.
Mr. Colburn is a published author on options trading, hedging, market making and risk management. In 1986, while at the New York Mercantile Exchange, Mr. Colburn helped develop new markets in energy option contracts by educating the oil industry, banks, floor traders and brokers, worldwide.
Links:
Commodity Research Group Podcast
Sponsors:
EKT Interactive Oil and Gas Podcast Network
Oil 101 A Free Online Introduction to the Oil and Gas Industry
The post August Oil Market Analysis – Commodity Research Group appeared first on EKT Interactive.
Next Episode
September Oil Market Analysis – Commodity Research Group
Thanks for listening to the CRG Channel on the EKT Interactive Oil and Gas Podcast Network.
Commodity Research Group (CRG) is an independent research consultancy specializing in base and precious metals, as well energy products. The Group provides research and general price analysis for these markets, along with advice to companies seeking to construct hedging strategies.
In this podcast, oil market experts Andrew Lebow and Jim Colburn discuss key fundamental forces driving oil prices in both the futures and options markets.
Topics and Time Stamps:
[01:20] Hurricane Harvey – Impact on EIA inventory numbers
[04:30] Refinery turnarounds possibly delayed from October to spring
[05:00] Mexico refining picture – effect on global supply
[07:00] Strength in Brent
[09:00] IEA ups demand forecast
[14:20] US product demand – Gasoline cracks
[15:40] OPEC ups call
[21:30] Balanced market remains rangebound
[24:50] Options: RBOB vol peaks
[27:00] Crude options – Dec $60 call – getting there?
[30:00] $45-52 range in tact
[32:20] What to look forward to
About the Experts
Andrew Lebow
Andrew Lebow has been involved in the energy derivative area since 1980. He began his career with Shearson Lehman Brothers where he worked in the initial formulation and marketing of the NYMEX WTI crude contract in 1983 as well as the NYMEX gasoline contract in 1985.
Mr. Lebow has appeared before the State Government of Alaska as well as the State Department of Defense to discuss hedging techniques. Mr. Lebow is also well known as a market analyst and is quoted frequently in the financial press. He has appeared on television on CNBC, NBC, CNN, CBS, and PBS. Mr. Lebow holds a BA from Lafayette College and an MBA from the Kellogg School of Management at Northwestern University.
James Colburn
Jim Colburn is a futures and options professional with 30 years of wide ranging experience in commodity markets. For much of his career, at Man Financial (1989-2011) and Jefferies LLC (2012-2013), Mr. Colburn worked with major integrated oil companies, hedge funds, pension funds and other entities to develop market hedging and trading strategies.
He has conducted trading, hedging and risk management workshops in energy markets worldwide.
Mr. Colburn is a published author on options trading, hedging, market making and risk management. In 1986, while at the New York Mercantile Exchange, Mr. Colburn helped develop new markets in energy option contracts by educating the oil industry, banks, floor traders and brokers, worldwide.
Links:
Commodity Research Group Podcast
Sponsors:
EKT Interactive Oil and Gas Podcast Network
Oil 101 A Free Online Introduction to the Oil and Gas Industry
The post September Oil Market Analysis – Commodity Research Group appeared first on EKT Interactive.
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