China in the World

On this joint episode of the China in the World podcast and the U.S.-China Nexus podcast, Eleanor Albert interviews Paul Haenle and two of his former National Security Council (NSC) colleagues, Dennis Wilder and Faryar Shirzad, about U.S. policy toward China during the George W. Bush administration. The three experts assess president Bush’s approach to China and the strategic perspective that guided U.S. engagement with Beijing as well as its hedging strategy against the prospect of a more ambitious China. In many respects, Haenle, Shirzad, and Wilder find that the Bush administration's economic and security initiatives served as building blocks for the United States’ current strategy in the Indo-Pacific. The conversation touches on the China section of the recently published Hand-Off: The Foreign Policy George W. Bush Passed to Barack Obama (2023), an edited volume with 30 commentaries and newly declassified transition memoranda, made public for the first time.

The U.S.-China Nexus podcast: https://uschinadialogue.georgetown.edu/podcasts/hand-off-the-china-policy-george-w-bush-passed-to-barack-obama

Order a copy of Hand-Off: The Foreign Policy George W. Bush Passed to Barack Obama: https://rowman.com/ISBN/9780815739777/Hand-Off-The-Foreign-Policy-George-W-Bush-Passed-to-Barack-Obama

In this episode of the China in the World podcast, Paul Haenle speaks with Evan Laksmana about U.S.-China dynamics in Southeast Asia and Southeast Asian views of U.S. foreign policy in the region. Haenle and Laksmana touch on the role of ASEAN, the Quad, and the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework as well as China and the United States’ competing visions of regional order.

Evan Laksmana is a nonresident scholar at Carnegie China, where he examines U.S.-China dynamics in Southeast Asia and the broader Asia-Pacific. Laksmana is also a senior research fellow with the Centre on Asia and Globalisation at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, National University of Singapore. He is also a nonresident scholar with the Lowy Institute for International Policy. His research focuses on military change, civil-military relations, and Southeast Asian defense and foreign policies.

If you enjoy listening to the China in the World podcast, consider checking out the Carnegie Endowment’s suite of podcasts:

https://carnegieendowment.org/the-world-unpacked

https://carnegieendowment.org/events/carnegieconnects

https://carnegieindia.org/interpretingindia

https://carnegieendowment.org/grandtamasha

https://carnegieeurope.eu/europeinsideout

The international order is shifting. Besides COVID-19 and supply chain disruptions, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has led to major crises that threaten global stability. While the European Union, the United States, and their allies and partners struggle to preserve peace in Europe, tensions are rising across the globe in the Taiwan Strait. To what degree has the world order shifted in 2022? How might the United States respond to intensifying challenges from Russia and China? How can the United States leverage the support of its allies and partners?

During a live recording of the China in the World podcast, Paul Haenle sat down with Anja Manuel to examine ongoing challenges to the global rules-based order. This discussion is the second of Carnegie China's 2022 Distinguished Speakers Series and is available to be viewed on the Carnegie Endowment's website.

https://carnegieendowment.org/2022/08/25/distinguished-speakers-series-anja-manuel-on-international-order-and-disorder-event-7922

Kim Jong-un’s New Year’s address and fourth visit to Beijing quickly put Pyongyang back in the spotlight in 2019. His meeting with Xi Jinping also likely foreshadowed a meeting with President Trump in the near future. On this episode of the China in the World podcast, Paul Haenle spoke with Tong Zhao, a fellow at the Carnegie–Tsinghua Center for Global Policy, on the implications of Kim’s New Year’s address and meeting with Xi Jinping, as well as the outlook for North Korea’s relations with China and the United States in 2019.
Zhao said Kim’s threats to take a “new path” if the U.S. does not lift sanctions does not mean a return to nuclear and missile tests. Instead, Pyongyang will likely strengthen ties with Beijing, departing from its focus on balancing relations between the United States and China. Zhao agreed with Haenle that the North Korea nuclear problem is not solved, as President Trump has claimed. North Korea appears committed to maintaining its intercontinental ballistic missile and nuclear programs. The fundamental barrier preventing progress on denuclearization is that Pyongyang will not trust any U.S. security guarantees, as such commitments are reversible. Instead, Zhao pushed for a long-term process that builds trust and transforms the relationship from hostile to friendly. The Kim-Xi relationship is one of convenience, rather than actual friendship, Zhao said. As Kim prepares for a second summit with Trump, he is not confident he can secure sanctions relief and is more willing to cozy up to Beijing. However, building a long-term relationship with the United States remains Kim’s priority. Washington’s support is key to lifting UN sanctions that prevent the North Korean economy from developing quickly. Zhao said China supports a second meeting between Trump and Kim because there is real hope that it could lead to actual progress on a deal. However, if the meeting does not go well, China is likely to blame the United States for not accommodating North Korean demands, widening the gap between Washington and Beijing during a delicate period in the relationship. If the situation on the Korean Peninsula deteriorates, China might even accuse the United States of deliberately precipitating a crisis to advance its own interests in the region.

One hundred days into Donald Trump’s presidency, he has shocked the establishment and foreign governments with many foreign policy reversals, and also some surprising areas of consistency. In this podcast, Paul Haenle sat down with Jon Finer, former chief of staff to Secretary of State John Kerry and director of policy planning at the U.S. Department of State, to discuss the major takeaways from Trump’s first 100 days in office, and the future of U.S.-China engagement.