2025 Predictions | Un-Inverted Curve | China Deflation Tariff Solution?| Bitcoin Quantum Problem?
12/30/24 • 61 min
Derek Moore and Jay Pestrichelli round out the year with some 2025 predictions on markets, rates, bonds, oil, bitcoin, the dollar, GDP, inflation, and gold. Plus, does Bitcoin have a Quantum Computing problem? What’s going on with deflation in China and is it the answer to potential tariffs? And news flash, the inverted yield curve is no more as the 10-year treasury yield rises above the 3-month treasury yield. All this and more!
2025 Predictions
China Deflation including 10-year Chinese Government Bond yields falling
China currency valuation, bond yields, and deflation a recipe to nullify US tariffs?
Quantum computer by Google and can it mine Bitcoin?
Will Quantum computers put Bitcoin wallets at risk? (part of our random predictions)
The reversion or un-inversion of the 10 year and the 3-month treasury
The inverted yield curve was the longest ever and didn’t cause a recession
Will the un-inverted yield curve now cause a recession?
VIX Index vs VIX futures spread
Additions and subtractions to the S&P 500 Index
Commodities including coffee, rubber, and cocoa rise
Earnings season soon upon us
Mentioned in this Episode
Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT
Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt
Derek’s book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag
Contact Derek [email protected]
Derek Moore and Jay Pestrichelli round out the year with some 2025 predictions on markets, rates, bonds, oil, bitcoin, the dollar, GDP, inflation, and gold. Plus, does Bitcoin have a Quantum Computing problem? What’s going on with deflation in China and is it the answer to potential tariffs? And news flash, the inverted yield curve is no more as the 10-year treasury yield rises above the 3-month treasury yield. All this and more!
2025 Predictions
China Deflation including 10-year Chinese Government Bond yields falling
China currency valuation, bond yields, and deflation a recipe to nullify US tariffs?
Quantum computer by Google and can it mine Bitcoin?
Will Quantum computers put Bitcoin wallets at risk? (part of our random predictions)
The reversion or un-inversion of the 10 year and the 3-month treasury
The inverted yield curve was the longest ever and didn’t cause a recession
Will the un-inverted yield curve now cause a recession?
VIX Index vs VIX futures spread
Additions and subtractions to the S&P 500 Index
Commodities including coffee, rubber, and cocoa rise
Earnings season soon upon us
Mentioned in this Episode
Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT
Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt
Derek’s book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag
Contact Derek [email protected]
Previous Episode
VIX Spikes as Market Has Tantrum | Fed Hawkish Cut| Inflation Not Getting to 2% | Dollar Index Breaks Out
Derek Moore and Jay Pestrichelli react to the Fed meeting where people are calling it a hawkish cut and a reset of future expectations of where interest rates end up. Plus, the Dot Plots say long run PCE Inflation will only go to 3% not 2%. Later looking at the Trade Weighted Dollar Index breakout and if it will become a problem for earnings growth in 2025. Of course, the big news last week was the spike in the VIX as the market had a temper tantrum. Finally, they go into earnings expectation, price to forward sales ratio, real retail sales, and more and even a wacky (or not) Amazon prediction.
Fed Hawkish Rate cut
Fed PCE Inflation Dot Plot 3% long run target
The Fed Pivot or Fed Reset in effect?
The VIX Spikes as the market has a tantrum after Powell press conference
Looking at current forward pe ratio for the S&P 500 Index now
Earnings expectations and the strong US Dollar
The US Dollar breaks out above resistance
Forward Price to Sales ratio getting elevated?
Goods vs services inflation
PPI services is still elevated
Would Amazon ever break out its business units to take advantage of AI and their chip?
Greenspan fed vs Powell
1994 bull market vs this bull market and does it mean longer to run?
Mentioned in this Episode
Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT
Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt
Derek’s book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag
Contact Derek [email protected]
Next Episode
Market Pullbacks Data | Yields Keep Rising? | Forward EPS vs PE Ratio | MicroStrategy Implied Volatility | 1 Fed Cut in 2025?
Derek Moore talks about the level of implied volatility in MicroStrategy and its performance relative to bitcoin. Plus, looking at how much future fed cut expectations have fallen for 2025. Later, Derek explains what drives returns looking at the forward p/e ratio vs forward analyst eps estimates for the S&P 500 Index, 2/10s US Treasury spread widening as yields rise, are 10 Year Treasury yields about to break out, and quietly crude oil has been rising. What would that mean for CPI and inflation navigation for the Fed?
Bitcoin vs MicroStrategy
Calculating implied 1 standard deviation moves based on options data
MicroStrategy implied volatility
S&P 500 Index analyst forward 1 year EPS estimates
Forward PE ration level and whether it is a predictor of markets 1 and 5 years in the future
Mag 7 net profit margins, earnings growth, and pe ratio vs the rest of the S&P 500 Index
Looking at max pullbacks for each calendar year and subsequent year end returns S&P 500
Cup and Handle pattern in the 10-Year Treasury yield
Fed Funds futures pricing and probabilities for future rate cuts in 2025 by the Fed
How markets move based on multiple expansion/contraction and earnings estimates
WTI (West Texas Intermediate) oil prices making a move?
Oil as a part of the CPI inflation numbers
Mentioned in this Episode
JP Morgan Guide to the Markets https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-management/adv/insights/market-insights/guide-to-the-markets/
Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT
Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt
Derek’s book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag
Contact Derek [email protected]
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