Why We Can't Seem to Agree on Crime Statistics

10/28/24 • 37 min

Crime data is all over the news these days and, at least in the United States, it seems like you can tell any story you want to about whether crime is going up or down and whose fault it is. How should we be thinking about this data to figure out of what's really going on? We speak with Jeff Asher, crime data analyst and co-founder of JH Datalytics, which recently launched the Real-Time Crime Index, about where crime data comes from, why everyone seems to be disagreeing about it, and how to think and talk about it more clearly.

Materials referenced in the show:

Jeff's company: https://www.ahdatalytics.com/
Jeff's substack: https://jasher.substack.com/
Real-Time Crime Index: https://realtimecrimeindex.com/
One of Jeff's articles about the crime data mess of a few years ago.

Andrea is here and on Instagram.

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Materials referenced in the show:

Jeff's company: https://www.ahdatalytics.com/
Jeff's substack: https://jasher.substack.com/
Real-Time Crime Index: https://realtimecrimeindex.com/
One of Jeff's articles about the crime data mess of a few years ago.

Andrea is here and on Instagram.

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Previous Episode

Political Polls

Political polls are in our faces these days whether we want them or not -- especially if you're in the US during election season. We talk with polling expert and database journalist Dhrumil Mehta of Columbia University (formerly Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight) about how to think about polls. Are they all just noise? Do they tell the future? Something in the middle? Join us to explore where political polls come from, how to evaluate them, and how to make the most of the information they offer.

Materials referenced in the show:

Example polling tracker from Nate Silver (Dhrumil and Andrea did not work on this version directly, but it is a "descendant" of a model they did work on.)
Nate Silver article, "The Media Has a Probability Problem", FiveThirtyEight
Harry Enten article, "Fake Polls are a Real Problem", FiveThirtyEight
Harry Enten article, "Trump is Just a Normal Polling Error Behind Clinton", FiveThirtyEight
Dhrumil's polls LLM: http://pollfinder.ai

More about Andrea here and on Instagram. More about Dhrumil here and on X.

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Next Episode

How Movies and TV Affect Us

When we think of data and movies the first (and maybe only) thing that comes to mind for many of us is movie reviews. But there is so much more we can learn about movies and ourselves if we just think outside the box a little bit and apply data and scientific thinking in creative ways. We talk with Walt Hickey, author of the book You Are What You Watch: How TV and Movies Affect Everything, about all kinds of exciting applications of data to track how movies affect us physically and emotionally, the value of exporting (and importing) culture internationally, whether superpowers predict evilness, how the plots of many movies have changed over time, why we like what we like, and how movies can change our entire life trajectory. Plus, prepare to learn why we should all watch Titanic again, as well as maybe consider (gasp) ignoring reviews of movies altogether.

Relevant materials and links mentioned: